Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.76 · now $12.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MGTX has typically landed between $9.84 and $17.51 — a range of −22.9% to +37.2% from the issuance price $12.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,058 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MGTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.64 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.32–$13.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.84–$17.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −48.8% | −50.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −47.7% | −48.4% | +1.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-01-29 | +76.7% | +0.0% | +76.7% |
| 2019-01-30 | +74.5% | +0.0% | +74.5% |
| 2021-09-29 | +72.0% | −0.5% | +72.0% |
2,058 overlapping windows · 2018-06-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 62,000 @ $13.86 | $859K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,325,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-21 | Giroux Richard | officer | Sale | 56,000 @ $12.51 | $701K | −5.8% of holding | +16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 908,530 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Naylor Stuart | officer | Sale | 25,112 @ $14.90 | $374K | −3.8% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 640,846 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Naylor Stuart | officer | Sale | 2,547 @ $13.86 | $35K | −0.4% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 665,958 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-19 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 62,000 @ $9.17 | $569K | −4.3% of holding | +22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,387,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-21 | Giroux Richard | officer | Sale | 56,000 @ $10.22 | $572K | −5.4% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 971,530 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-07 | Naylor Stuart | officer | Sale | 27,661 @ $9.36 | $259K | −4.0% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 668,505 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-24 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 62,000 @ $7.41 | $459K | −4.1% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,449,695 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-21 | Giroux Richard | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $8.87 | $213K | −2.8% of holding | −16.9% | −5.5% | 829,494 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 47,500 @ $8.39 | $399K | −3.5% of holding | −0.2% | +7.8% | 1,313,983 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-22 | Giroux Richard | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $8.52 | $204K | −2.7% of holding | −13.5% | −20.8% | 853,494 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-08 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 47,500 @ $7.97 | $379K | −3.4% of holding | −3.5% | −19.1% | 1,361,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-22 | Giroux Richard | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $6.00 | $144K | −2.6% of holding | −26.0% | +19.6% | 882,494 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-08 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 47,500 @ $5.34 | $254K | −3.3% of holding | −9.4% | +21.3% | 1,408,983 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-21 | Giroux Richard | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $6.29 | $151K | −2.7% of holding | +5.3% | +26.7% | 849,947 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-08 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 11,661 @ $6.30 | $73K | −0.8% of holding | +2.4% | +33.4% | 1,383,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Sale | 35,839 @ $6.47 | $232K | −2.5% of holding | +5.4% | +27.0% | 1,395,102 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
175 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Zeldin Robert K | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Wollin Robert J | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Award / grant | 980,000 | 980,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Giroux Richard | officer | Award / grant | 980,000 | 980,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Naylor Stuart | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hukkelhoven Ellen | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Harris Keith R. | director | Award / grant | 106,441 | 106,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SHENK THOMAS E | director | Award / grant | 69,662 | 69,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Seligman Nicole | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Mendoza Neil | director | Award / grant | 66,641 | 66,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Yu Debra | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Harris Keith R. | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Harris Keith R. | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Harris Keith R. | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Giroux Richard | officer | Gift | 7,000 | 964,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Fleck Penny Renee | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 555,555 | 10,786,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 400,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 300,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 300,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 400,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 300,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 400,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 300,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 400,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Forbes Alexandria | director | Withheld for tax | 33,048 | 1,511,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Giroux Richard | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,726 | 1,027,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Naylor Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,750 | 696,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Wollin Robert J | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,949 | 57,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Zeldin Robert K | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,952 | 172,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-21 | Wollin Robert J | officer | Option exercise | 11,250 | 11,250 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.