Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.36 · now $14.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MGPI has typically landed between $12.19 and $16.34 — a range of −15.1% to +13.8% from the issuance price $14.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MGPI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.19 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.21–$15.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.19–$16.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-17 | −70.4% | −70.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-16 | −65.3% | −65.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-14 | −64.2% | −64.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-13 | +236.1% | +0.0% | +236.1% |
| 2009-03-16 | +222.6% | +0.0% | +230.4% |
| 2009-03-17 | +191.3% | +0.0% | +230.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−2.3%
n=20
Feb
60%
−1.4%
n=20
Mar
55%
+2.5%
n=20
Apr
75%
+9.8%
n=20
May
45%
+1.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.9%
n=20
Jul
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Aug
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Sep
55%
−2.7%
n=20
Oct
50%
−3.6%
n=20
Nov
50%
+3.0%
n=20
Dec
80%
+4.3%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Lux Paul S. | other | Sale | 33,000 @ $17.76 | $586K | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 550,458 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 30,000 @ $18.18 | $545K | −6.0% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 470,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 30,000 @ $17.82 | $535K | −5.7% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 500,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 31,056 @ $25.87 | $803K | −36.7% of holding | −6.8% | −45.0% | 53,488 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 29,735 @ $25.60 | $761K | −26.0% of holding | −6.8% | −45.0% | 84,544 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 18,203 @ $26.31 | $479K | −34.0% of holding | −6.8% | −45.0% | 35,285 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 2,622 @ $24.88 | $65K | −2.2% of holding | −6.8% | −45.0% | 114,279 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 166,668 @ $24.24 | $4.0M | −58.8% of holding | −0.4% | −41.2% | 116,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 11,976 @ $24.22 | $290K | −14.2% of holding | −0.4% | −41.2% | 72,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 2,451 @ $24.22 | $59K | −6.1% of holding | −0.4% | −41.2% | 37,417 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 29,691 @ $24.16 | $717K | −26.0% of holding | +1.9% | −37.4% | 84,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 12,133 @ $24.15 | $293K | −23.3% of holding | +1.9% | −37.4% | 39,868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,860 @ $23.28 | $695K | −5.3% of holding | +1.5% | −33.5% | 531,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 140 @ $23.81 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +1.5% | −33.5% | 530,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,834 @ $23.85 | $711K | −5.0% of holding | +0.5% | −36.6% | 561,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 166 @ $24.49 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.5% | −36.6% | 560,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Lux Donn S. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $32.37 | $1.6M | −2.0% of holding | −11.4% | −36.0% | 2,438,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Lux Donn S. | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $33.05 | $1.7M | −2.0% of holding | −14.1% | −37.7% | 2,488,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32,500 @ $33.41 | $1.1M | −5.2% of holding | −17.7% | −41.0% | 590,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Kaplan Caroline Lux | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,731 @ $33.10 | $454K | −2.2% of holding | −16.9% | −41.9% | 623,458 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Roper Martin | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $33.10 | $497K | +471.7% of holding | −17.7% | −43.4% | 18,180 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 10,609 @ $30.65 | $325K | −0.6% of holding | −11.2% | −43.5% | 1,750,325 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 1,592 @ $31.25 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | −11.2% | −43.5% | 1,748,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Mingus Lori L.S. | director | Sale | 335 @ $32.09 | $11K | −1.2% of holding | −11.2% | −43.5% | 26,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 55,056 @ $28.38 | $1.6M | −3.0% of holding | +8.6% | −33.2% | 1,760,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 2,111 @ $27.94 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | +8.6% | −33.2% | 1,763,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 1,736 @ $28.77 | $50K | −1.5% of holding | +8.6% | −33.2% | 114,205 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Mingus Lori L.S. | director | Sale | 778 @ $28.89 | $22K | −2.8% of holding | +8.6% | −33.2% | 27,131 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Siwak Todd B. | director | Sale | 653 @ $30.67 | $20K | −17.7% of holding | −8.1% | −27.5% | 3,046 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 16,974 @ $30.69 | $521K | −5.5% of holding | −5.0% | −28.2% | 292,914 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 9,345 @ $31.12 | $291K | −3.2% of holding | −5.0% | −28.2% | 283,569 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 1,985 @ $30.47 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | −5.0% | −28.2% | 1,818,101 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-12 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 36,739 @ $30.35 | $1.1M | −10.5% of holding | −2.0% | −24.4% | 312,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 2,375 @ $30.93 | $73K | −0.8% of holding | −2.0% | −24.4% | 309,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 220 @ $30.50 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | −2.0% | −24.4% | 349,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 70 @ $30.50 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −2.0% | −24.4% | 115,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Lux Donn S. | director | Sale | 80,621 @ $31.50 | $2.5M | −3.1% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 2,557,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 71,240 @ $31.50 | $2.2M | −3.7% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 1,829,291 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 40,890 @ $31.49 | $1.3M | −2.1% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 1,909,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Lux Donn S. | director | Sale | 19,379 @ $32.35 | $627K | −0.8% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 2,538,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 9,455 @ $32.21 | $305K | −0.5% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 1,900,531 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 9,205 @ $32.12 | $296K | −0.5% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 1,820,086 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Purchase | 8,028 @ $31.51 | $253K | −2.2% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 350,476 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Purchase | 5,348 @ $32.59 | $174K | +1.5% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 358,899 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 2,772 @ $31.53 | $87K | −2.3% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 116,333 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 1,254 @ $32.11 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 349,222 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 395 @ $33.13 | $13K | −0.1% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 358,504 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-11 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 322 @ $32.23 | $10K | −0.3% of holding | −6.9% | −29.1% | 116,011 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | Mingus Lori L.S. | director | Sale | 9,464 @ $34.52 | $327K | −25.3% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 27,909 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 8,703 @ $34.51 | $300K | −2.3% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 364,918 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 5,626 @ $33.53 | $189K | −1.5% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 373,621 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 2,931 @ $34.12 | $100K | −3.4% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 83,054 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 1,476 @ $34.18 | $50K | −2.8% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 52,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 1,467 @ $34.19 | $50K | −2.4% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 58,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Seaberg Karen | director | Sale | 671 @ $35.10 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −9.5% | −31.1% | 364,247 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
62 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Francis Julie Maria | director | Withheld for tax | 1,994 | 107,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 2,232 | 35,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Romero Mercedes | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 5,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 33,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Mingus Lori L.S. | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 5,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | LOPEZ GERARDO I | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 12,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Siwak Todd B. | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 10,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Lowry Jennifer Elaine | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 11,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | GERKE THOMAS A | director | Award / grant | 5,801 | 17,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Francis Julie Maria | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 2,112 | 27,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Molamphy Kathleen Susan | officer | Award / grant | 11,297 | 28,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gall Brandon | officer | Award / grant | 13,955 | 87,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gall Brandon | officer | Award / grant | 8,024 | 73,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Francis Julie Maria | director | Award / grant | 30,569 | 109,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Molamphy Kathleen Susan | officer | Award / grant | 4,519 | 17,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Gall Brandon | officer | Award / grant | 13,687 | 65,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Molamphy Kathleen Susan | officer | Award / grant | 5,609 | 12,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Francis Julie Maria | director | Award / grant | 58,674 | 79,261 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Gall Brandon | officer | Withheld for tax | 598 | 51,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Pasagic Amel | officer | Withheld for tax | 346 | 10,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Lapish Erika | officer | Withheld for tax | 241 | 9,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Gall Brandon | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,438 | 52,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Pasagic Amel | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,527 | 10,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Lapish Erika | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,211 | 9,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Gall Brandon | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,558 | 54,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Pasagic Amel | officer | Withheld for tax | 744 | 12,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Lapish Erika | officer | Withheld for tax | 554 | 10,573 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 1,594 | 25,358 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 1,579 | 23,764 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Seaberg Karen | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Seaberg Karen | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Seaberg Karen | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Seaberg Karen | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-20 | Seaberg Karen | director | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-04 | Francis Julie Maria | director | Award / grant | 20,587 | 20,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-04 | Francis Julie Maria | director | Award / grant | 138,310 | 138,310 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-03 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 724 | 22,185 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Roper Martin | director | Award / grant | 3,281 | 21,461 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-21 | Lowry Jennifer Elaine | director | Award / grant | 2,812 | 2,812 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.