MGNX · TickerCove

MGNXMacroGenics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.08 · now $4.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MGNX has typically landed between $2.84 and $5.80 — a range of −30.5% to +42.0% from the issuance price $4.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,228 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.08 · 78% of range

$1.33 low$4.86 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.3%

typical move · IQR 26.2%

−30.5%worst (p90)+42.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MGNX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.08 (+0.0%)
typical $4.03 (-1.3%)
middle 50% $3.49–$4.56
90% range $2.84–$5.8

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,228 windows spanning 2013-10-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2024-04-11	−76.3%	−76.3%	+0.0%
2024-04-12	−74.6%	−75.0%	+0.0%
2024-04-18	−73.5%	−73.5%	+1.9%
3 best
2020-04-16	+401.9%	+0.0%	+422.1%
2020-04-08	+392.0%	−2.8%	+392.0%
2020-04-09	+371.4%	−9.7%	+371.4%

3,228 overlapping windows · 2013-10-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

31%

−0.5%

n=13

Feb

62%

+6.7%

n=13

Mar

38%

−3.8%

n=13

Apr

54%

+1.6%

n=13

May

38%

+3.5%

n=13

Jun

54%

+4.1%

n=13

Jul

23%

−3.0%

n=13

Aug

54%

+3.1%

n=13

Sep

15%

−6.3%

n=13

Oct

50%

+1.4%

n=12

Nov

62%

+11.3%

n=13

Dec

46%

−0.7%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-19	Peters Jeffrey Stuart	officer	Sale	31,105 @ $4.15	$129K	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20	HEIDEN WILLIAM K	director	Purchase	49,500 @ $1.49	$74K	+80.5% of holding	+4.4%	+5.4%	111,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19	HEIDEN WILLIAM K	director	Purchase	50,500 @ $1.52	$77K	+459.1% of holding	+12.6%	+8.5%	61,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-15	Smith Beth Ann	officer	Sale	423 @ $2.56	$1K	−4.2% of holding	−11.9%	−46.8%	9,532	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

254 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-17	Bonvini Ezio	officer	Option exercise	40,000	185,799	Form 4
2026-08-17	Bonvini Ezio	officer	Option exercise	40,000	88,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	HEIDEN WILLIAM K	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	HEIDEN WILLIAM K	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	HURWITZ EDWARD	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	Ferrante Karen Jean	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	O'Brien Federica F.	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	HURWITZ EDWARD	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	STUMP DAVID C	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	Chhabra Meenu	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	Chhabra Meenu	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	Jackson Scott Thomas	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	Koenig Scott	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	Koenig Scott	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	Liu Margaret	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	STUMP DAVID C	director	Award / grant	3,750	3,750	Form 4
2026-05-19	Liu Margaret	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	Jackson Scott Thomas	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	O'Brien Federica F.	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-19	Ferrante Karen Jean	director	Award / grant	22,000	22,000	Form 4
2026-05-18	Chhabra Meenu	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Jackson Scott Thomas	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	O'Brien Federica F.	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Ferrante Karen Jean	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	SIEGEL JAY PHILIP	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	STUMP DAVID C	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	Liu Margaret	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	HEIDEN WILLIAM K	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	HURWITZ EDWARD	director	Option exercise	3,750	0	Form 4
2026-05-18	HEIDEN WILLIAM K	director	Option exercise	3,750	114,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	Chhabra Meenu	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	Liu Margaret	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	HURWITZ EDWARD	director	Option exercise	3,750	47,824	Form 4
2026-05-18	Jackson Scott Thomas	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	O'Brien Federica F.	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	SIEGEL JAY PHILIP	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	Jackson Scott Thomas	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	Ferrante Karen Jean	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	SIEGEL JAY PHILIP	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4
2026-05-18	STUMP DAVID C	director	Option exercise	3,750	14,750	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i