Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.78 · now $23.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MGNI has typically landed between $17.32 and $32.25 — a range of −27.2% to +35.6% from the issuance price $23.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,111 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-04-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MGNI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.81 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.65–$26.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.32–$32.25
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,111 windows spanning 2014-04-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −61.6% | −62.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −60.4% | −61.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −59.9% | −59.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-08 | +146.1% | +0.0% | +146.1% |
| 2021-01-07 | +129.0% | −2.1% | +129.0% |
| 2021-01-11 | +125.5% | +0.0% | +141.4% |
3,111 overlapping windows · 2014-04-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
58%
+1.7%
n=12
Feb
67%
+12.7%
n=12
Mar
25%
−12.9%
n=12
Apr
58%
+1.7%
n=12
May
46%
+2.7%
n=13
Jun
77%
+9.6%
n=13
Jul
54%
+0.6%
n=13
Aug
38%
−1.7%
n=13
Sep
38%
−3.6%
n=13
Oct
25%
−2.0%
n=12
Nov
50%
+13.4%
n=12
Dec
58%
+7.5%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Spillane Robert F | director | Sale | 10,363 @ $23.76 | $246K | −15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 57,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 1,165 @ $24.00 | $28K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 245,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Sale | 13,997 @ $24.00 | $336K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 441,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Saltz Aaron | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $23.41 | $936K | −15.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 224,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.53 | $118K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 144,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Sale | 11,100 @ $23.46 | $260K | −2.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 455,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Sale | 32,285 @ $23.63 | $763K | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 466,897 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 1,043 @ $25.00 | $26K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 246,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 5,371 @ $23.42 | $126K | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 247,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Harden Sarah Patricia | director | Sale | 18,436 @ $24.00 | $442K | −13.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,751 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Harden Sarah Patricia | director | Sale | 30,550 @ $23.31 | $712K | −18.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 133,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,759 @ $25.00 | $69K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 293,060 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 8,271 @ $24.31 | $201K | −2.7% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 295,819 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $25.00 | $188K | −4.8% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 149,901 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Gephart Brian | officer | Sale | 12,479 @ $24.68 | $308K | −10.5% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 106,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Lam Rachel | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $24.16 | $242K | −4.2% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,620 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $24.35 | $122K | −3.1% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Sale | 293,968 @ $22.72 | $6.7M | −42.2% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 47,942 @ $25.09 | $1.2M | −12.5% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Knopper Douglas S | director | Sale | 37,337 @ $22.72 | $848K | −29.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.00 | $480K | −3.9% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 496,840 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 19,237 @ $23.00 | $442K | −5.7% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 4,176 @ $22.81 | $95K | −1.6% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,309 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 2,602 @ $24.00 | $62K | −1.0% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 261,707 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 871 @ $25.00 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Sale | 38,596 @ $20.35 | $785K | −8.7% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $20.64 | $103K | −3.0% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 19,233 @ $21.03 | $404K | −5.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 354,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 1,224 @ $21.00 | $26K | −0.5% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 268,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 9,376 @ $20.00 | $188K | −3.4% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,709 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $19.50 | $1.5M | −15.7% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 19,233 @ $19.00 | $365K | −4.9% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 373,514 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 1,409 @ $19.00 | $27K | −0.5% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 279,085 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-16 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $17.50 | $1.8M | −19.9% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Knopper Douglas S | director | Sale | 37,337 @ $18.10 | $676K | −22.9% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 11,233 @ $18.00 | $202K | −3.9% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,494 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Sale | 178,596 @ $16.59 | $3.0M | −30.7% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 403,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 1,057 @ $17.00 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | +19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Knopper Douglas S | director | Sale | 10,766 @ $15.73 | $169K | −6.2% of holding | +26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 163,147 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | PEARSON DAVID T. | director | Sale | 10,766 @ $15.65 | $168K | −12.0% of holding | +26.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,001 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 1,409 @ $15.00 | $21K | −0.5% of holding | +33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,784 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Spillane Robert F | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $13.33 | $133K | −18.5% of holding | +31.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Soroca Adam Lee | officer | Sale | 21,529 @ $12.00 | $258K | −5.3% of holding | +7.9% | +86.1% | 388,425 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-17 | Soroca Adam Lee | officer | Sale | 16,656 @ $17.00 | $283K | −4.9% of holding | −12.6% | −7.3% | 326,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 2,213 @ $14.50 | $32K | −0.8% of holding | +8.5% | −15.6% | 268,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Spillane Robert F | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $14.22 | $178K | −18.8% of holding | +12.5% | −19.7% | 53,917 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Soroca Adam Lee | officer | Sale | 10,857 @ $13.23 | $144K | −3.2% of holding | +21.2% | −14.7% | 326,114 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 4,426 @ $13.36 | $59K | −1.6% of holding | +21.2% | −14.7% | 271,125 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-24 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $20.00 | $100K | −3.2% of holding | −24.8% | −40.6% | 153,603 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Saltz Aaron | officer | Sale | 8,522 @ $24.50 | $209K | −3.8% of holding | −29.1% | −51.3% | 215,079 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-19 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $25.00 | $188K | −4.5% of holding | −29.1% | −51.3% | 158,603 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Saltz Aaron | officer | Sale | 6,180 @ $23.94 | $148K | −2.7% of holding | −24.8% | −50.1% | 223,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 3,811 @ $23.50 | $90K | −2.2% of holding | −25.5% | −51.3% | 167,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Caine Paul | director | Sale | 1,189 @ $23.91 | $28K | −0.7% of holding | −25.5% | −51.3% | 166,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $24.61 | $492K | −6.5% of holding | −25.5% | −51.2% | 287,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $25.56 | $511K | −6.1% of holding | −28.1% | −53.7% | 307,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Gephart Brian | officer | Sale | 27,671 @ $24.71 | $684K | −23.0% of holding | −21.7% | −47.8% | 92,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Buonasera David | officer | Sale | 2,950 @ $25.37 | $75K | −1.2% of holding | −22.3% | −48.7% | 238,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Soroca Adam Lee | officer | Sale | 15,717 @ $24.97 | $392K | −4.3% of holding | −24.9% | −53.5% | 346,393 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Soroca Adam Lee | officer | Sale | 9,269 @ $24.22 | $224K | −2.5% of holding | −24.9% | −53.5% | 362,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
166 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Spillane Robert F | director | Option exercise | 10,363 | 68,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Spillane Robert F | director | Option exercise | 10,363 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Option exercise | 13,546 | 499,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Option exercise | 13,546 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Day David | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,170 | 452,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,715 | 304,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,204 | 485,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Withheld for tax | 10,404 | 392,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Buonasera David | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,102 | 252,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Saltz Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,627 | 264,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gephart Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,789 | 102,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Day David | officer | Gift | 26,258 | 467,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 293,968 | 697,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 28,703 | 382,984 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 516,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Option exercise | 28,703 | 57,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 293,968 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 38,596 | 441,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 38,596 | 293,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 478,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 75,000 | 332,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 503,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 407,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 178,596 | 581,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Option exercise | 178,596 | 507,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Knopper Douglas S | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 173,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Spillane Robert F | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 57,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Caine Paul | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 167,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Rossman James | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 107,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | PEARSON DAVID T. | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 89,767 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Harden Sarah Patricia | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 163,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Lam Rachel | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 240,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Yu Diane | director | Award / grant | 13,798 | 81,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Day David | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,170 | 493,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Buckley Sean Patrick | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,019 | 392,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Evans Katie Seitz | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,204 | 496,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | BARRETT MICHAEL G. | director | Withheld for tax | 10,404 | 403,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Buonasera David | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,335 | 294,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saltz Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,627 | 270,016 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.