MGMMGM Resorts InternationalConsumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.39 · now $38.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MGM has typically landed between $32.52 and $44.76 — a range of −15.3% to +16.6% from the issuance price $38.39.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MGM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$32.52worst · -15.3%$44.76best · +16.6%
  • now $38.39 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.05 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.36–$40.74
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.52–$44.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−77.6%−77.6%+1.0%
2020-02-19−75.8%−77.6%+0.8%
2009-02-02−72.8%−72.8%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-31+260.0%+0.0%+260.0%
2009-04-02+200.3%+0.0%+200.3%
2009-04-01+199.6%+0.0%+219.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$11.7B
market cap
$0.72
EPS (TTM)
63.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$17.5B
'20'25
Net income$206M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr1.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr8.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr23.11
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $38.39$9.14$125.34
  • DCF (intrinsic)$117.32
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$17.15
  • Analyst target · range $35.00–$55.00$48.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$38.39

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
+1.0%
n=18
Feb
42%
−2.9%
n=19
Mar
47%
−4.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
+17.3%
n=19
May
58%
−1.8%
n=19
Jun
37%
−3.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
37%
+0.1%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.5%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$51$312026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $257K — TAYLOR DANIEL J2026-03-24: 1 insider purchase, $16.7M — IAC Inc.2026-03-23: 1 insider purchase, $20.5M — IAC Inc.2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Meister Keith A.2025-12-05: 1 insider purchase, $39.9M — IAC Inc.2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — McManus John2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $8.6M — Meister Keith A.2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $10.7M2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $39.9M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $37.2M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $257K↑ buys↓ salesdirector TAYLOR DANIEL J — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner IAC Inc. — Purchase on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner IAC Inc. — Purchase on 2026-03-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Meister Keith A. — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same daytenPercentOwner IAC Inc. — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer McManus John — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed same daydirector Meister Keith A. — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-22TAYLOR DANIEL JdirectorSale6,675 @ $38.44$257K−100.0% of holding+24.0%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-24IAC Inc.tenPercentOwnerPurchase450,000 @ $37.13$16.7M+0.7% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open66,822,350Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23IAC Inc.tenPercentOwnerPurchase550,000 @ $37.30$20.5M+0.8% of holding−2.3%not yet — horizon still open66,372,350Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Meister Keith A.directorSale37,500 @ $34.27$1.3M−0.7% of holding+4.2%+0.8%5,347,978Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-05IAC Inc.tenPercentOwnerPurchase1,098,748 @ $36.30$39.9M+1.7% of holding−6.3%+22.6%65,822,350Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-15McManus JohnofficerSale60,000 @ $36.12$2.2M−65.6% of holding−9.4%+1.3%31,521Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11Meister Keith A.directorSale242,000 @ $35.42$8.6M−4.3% of holding−11.1%+2.5%5,385,478Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13Meister Keith A.directorSale59,634 @ $32.09$1.9M−1.0% of holding+12.7%+3.0%5,627,844Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13Meister Keith A.directorSale366 @ $32.50$12K−0.0% of holding+12.7%+3.0%5,627,478Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13TAYLOR DANIEL JdirectorSale5,261 @ $34.93$184K−100.0% of holding−7.9%−22.9%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12SANDERS COREY IANofficerSale40,000 @ $34.43$1.4M−12.4% of holding−7.3%−22.8%281,530Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06Halkyard Jonathan SdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $32.17$322K+15.2% of holding−3.6%+2.2%75,648Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Meinert ToddofficerSale6,000 @ $37.84$227K−24.7% of holding−7.4%−10.0%18,301Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13Meister Keith A.directorSale51,000 @ $36.57$1.9M−0.9% of holding−6.9%−5.9%5,687,478Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

217 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Fritz Gary MofficerWithheld for tax1,882134,833Form 4
2026-09-11Fritz Gary MofficerOption exercise4,7114,711Form 4
2026-09-11Fritz Gary MofficerOption exercise4,711136,715Form 4
2026-07-01Fritz Gary MofficerWithheld for tax903132,004Form 4
2026-07-01Fritz Gary MofficerOption exercise2,259132,907Form 4
2026-07-01Fritz Gary MofficerOption exercise2,2594,518Form 4
2026-06-30SALEM PAUL JdirectorAward / grant2,039126,916Form 4
2026-06-30Meister Keith A.directorAward / grant83770,478Form 4
2026-06-30LEVIN JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant7321,678Form 4
2026-05-07Mckinney-James RosedirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07Swartz JanetdirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07SALEM PAUL JdirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07TAYLOR DANIEL JdirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07Winston BendirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07LEVIN JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07Langley DonnadirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07Barr KeithdirectorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-07Meister Keith A.directorAward / grant6,2986,298Form 4
2026-05-06Mckinney-James RosedirectorOption exercise3,3383,337Form 4
2026-05-06Mckinney-James RosedirectorOption exercise3,3370Form 4
2026-05-06Mckinney-James RosedirectorOption exercise3,33768,193Form 4
2026-05-06TAYLOR DANIEL JdirectorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06SALEM PAUL JdirectorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06SALEM PAUL JdirectorOption exercise6,675124,877Form 4
2026-05-06Swartz JanetdirectorOption exercise6,67511,936Form 4
2026-05-06TAYLOR DANIEL JdirectorOption exercise6,6756,675Form 4
2026-05-06Swartz JanetdirectorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06LEVIN JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise6,6756,675Form 4
2026-05-06LEVIN JOSEPHdirectorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06Winston BendirectorOption exercise3,33812,877Form 4
2026-05-06Winston BendirectorOption exercise3,3383,337Form 4
2026-05-06Winston BendirectorOption exercise3,3370Form 4
2026-05-06Winston BendirectorOption exercise3,3374,389Form 4
2026-05-06Barr KeithdirectorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06Barr KeithdirectorOption exercise6,67510,757Form 4
2026-05-06Langley DonnadirectorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06Langley DonnadirectorOption exercise6,6756,675Form 4
2026-05-06Meister Keith A.directorOption exercise6,6750Form 4
2026-05-06Meister Keith A.directorOption exercise6,67569,641Form 4
2026-05-06Mckinney-James RosedirectorOption exercise3,3385,098Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2025-04-112025-03-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.