MGMistras Group, Inc.Industrials · Security & Protection Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.36 · now $19.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MG has typically landed between $16.22 and $23.86 — a range of −16.2% to +23.2% from the issuance price $19.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,239 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-10-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.22worst · -16.2%$23.86best · +23.2%
  • now $19.36 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.52 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.98–$21.05
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.22–$23.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,239 windows spanning 2009-10-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−70.7%−70.7%+1.7%
2020-02-14−66.2%−66.2%+4.3%
2020-02-21−64.1%−70.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-12+69.0%+0.0%+69.0%
2020-11-13+64.8%+0.0%+64.8%
2020-11-06+62.8%+0.0%+62.8%

4,239 overlapping windows · 2009-10-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
53%
−0.3%
n=17
Feb
35%
−1.1%
n=17
Mar
59%
+2.7%
n=17
Apr
41%
+1.2%
n=17
May
41%
−3.3%
n=17
Jun
47%
+0.1%
n=17
Jul
47%
−1.1%
n=17
Aug
59%
+3.7%
n=17
Sep
41%
−2.6%
n=17
Oct
38%
−0.4%
n=16
Nov
71%
+6.3%
n=17
Dec
76%
+8.3%
n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$20$92026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $18K — Foglia Stephanie Athena2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $16K — Foglia Stephanie Athena2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $15K — Foglia Stephanie Athena2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $14K — Foglia Stephanie Athena2025-09-15: 2 insider purchases, $382K — Coggins Eileen Mary …2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $382K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $14K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $15K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $16K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $18K↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner Foglia Stephanie Athena — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 48 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Foglia Stephanie Athena — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 93 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Foglia Stephanie Athena — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 121 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Foglia Stephanie Athena — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 150 days after the tradeofficer Coggins Eileen Mary — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 10 days after the tradeofficer Coggins Eileen Mary — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 10 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-04-17Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerSale1,000 @ $18.00$18K−37.1% of holding−7.6%not yet — horizon still open1,692Form 4 · filed 48 days after the trade
2026-03-03Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerSale1,000 @ $15.50$16K−27.1% of holding+2.3%+7.6%2,692Form 4 · filed 93 days after the trade
2026-02-03Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerSale1,000 @ $14.60$15K−21.3% of holding+3.1%−3.1%3,692Form 4 · filed 121 days after the trade
2026-01-05Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerSale1,000 @ $13.60$14K−17.6% of holding+7.0%+10.9%4,692Form 4 · filed 150 days after the trade
2025-09-15Coggins Eileen MaryofficerPurchase25,000 @ $9.55$239Kownership Δ n/a−0.4%+51.6%25,000Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade
2025-09-15Coggins Eileen MaryofficerPurchase15,000 @ $9.55$143Kownership Δ n/a−0.4%+51.6%15,000Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade
2025-06-05Stamatakis Manuel N.directorPurchase10,000 @ $7.71$77K+2.7% of holding−0.9%+37.3%384,299Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-20DEBENEDICTIS NICHOLASdirectorPurchase1,038 @ $10.01$10K+0.5% of holding−1.8%−23.2%227,511Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-19Stamatakis Manuel N.directorPurchase10,000 @ $9.95$100K+2.7% of holding−0.5%−19.9%374,299Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19DEBENEDICTIS NICHOLASdirectorPurchase8,962 @ $10.04$90K+4.1% of holding−0.5%−19.9%226,473Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18DEBENEDICTIS NICHOLASdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $9.84$98K+4.8% of holding−0.1%−22.9%217,511Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

61 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Vahaviolos Aspasia FelicetenPercentOwnerGift387,0932,154,541Form 4
2026-09-10Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerGift387,0933,923,718Form 4
2026-09-08SHUMAN-FABBRI NATALIAdirectorWithheld for tax2,410123,780Form 4
2026-06-10Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerGift411,8754,310,811Form 4
2026-06-10Vahaviolos Aspasia FelicetenPercentOwnerGift411,8751,794,839Form 4
2026-05-19FORESE JAMES JdirectorAward / grant6,862177,043Form 4
2026-05-19GLANTON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant6,86268,431Form 4
2026-05-19PIZZI CHARLES PdirectorAward / grant6,86273,480Form 4
2026-05-19Lohmeier MichelledirectorAward / grant6,86299,223Form 4
2026-05-19DEBENEDICTIS NICHOLASdirectorAward / grant6,862248,820Form 4
2026-04-27Foglia Stephanie AthenatenPercentOwnerGift528,6724,722,686Form 4
2026-03-26Hammad Hanei WailofficerWithheld for tax2,86561,777Form 4
2026-03-22Prajzner Edward JofficerWithheld for tax1,367148,076Form 4
2026-03-16Prajzner Edward JofficerWithheld for tax2,239149,443Form 4
2026-03-07Prajzner Edward JofficerWithheld for tax2,540151,682Form 4
2026-03-04Stamatakis Manuel N.directorWithheld for tax814509,795Form 4
2026-03-04Prajzner Edward JofficerWithheld for tax698154,222Form 4
2026-03-04Hammad Hanei WailofficerWithheld for tax33764,642Form 4
2026-03-04D'Alterio Gennaro A.officerWithheld for tax18447,239Form 4
2026-02-28Prajzner Edward JofficerWithheld for tax1,303154,920Form 4
2026-02-28D'Alterio Gennaro A.officerWithheld for tax86247,423Form 4
2026-02-28D'Alterio Gennaro A.officerWithheld for tax65548,285Form 4
2026-02-25D'Alterio Gennaro A.officerAward / grant19,90548,940Form 4
2026-02-25Coggins Eileen MaryofficerAward / grant7,24222,242Form 4
2026-02-25Prajzner Edward JofficerAward / grant37,202156,223Form 4
2026-02-25SHUMAN-FABBRI NATALIAdirectorAward / grant101,190126,190Form 4
2026-02-25Hammad Hanei WailofficerAward / grant29,76288,357Form 4
2026-02-25Stamatakis Manuel N.directorAward / grant86,310510,609Form 4
2026-01-05Prajzner Edward JofficerWithheld for tax2,699119,021Form 4
2026-01-02Stamatakis Manuel N.directorAward / grant40,000424,299Form 4
2025-12-31Vahaviolos Aspasia FelicetenPercentOwnerGift528,6721,382,964Form 4
2025-12-31Vahaviolos Aspasia FelicetenPercentOwnerGift5,251,358854,292Form 4
2025-12-04PIZZI CHARLES PdirectorGift2,15066,618Form 4
2025-09-24D'Alterio Gennaro A.officerWithheld for tax47529,035Form 4
2025-09-08SHUMAN-FABBRI NATALIAdirectorAward / grant25,00025,000Form 4
2025-09-08SHUMAN-FABBRI NATALIAdirectorAward / grant35,00035,000Form 4
2025-07-02Vahaviolos Aspasia FelicetenPercentOwnerCode W2,217,0876,105,650Form 4
2025-07-02Sotirios Vahaviolos January 2023 2-Year Grantor Retained Annuity TrusttenPercentOwnerGift4,685,5780Form 4
2025-05-19GLANTON RICHARD HdirectorAward / grant14,44761,569Form 4
2025-05-19PIZZI CHARLES PdirectorAward / grant14,44768,768Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.