MFIN · TickerCove

MFINMedallion Financial Corp.Financial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.84 · now $11.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MFIN has typically landed between $9.91 and $14.19 — a range of −16.3% to +19.9% from the issuance price $11.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.84 · 91% of range

$7.89 low$12.22 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.4%

typical move · IQR 11.9%

−16.3%worst (p90)+19.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MFIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.84 (+0.0%)
typical $12 (+1.4%)
middle 50% $11.3–$12.71
90% range $9.91–$14.19

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-03-06	−74.3%	−74.3%	+0.0%
2020-03-05	−72.1%	−72.1%	+1.2%
2020-03-03	−71.0%	−71.0%	+3.7%
3 best
2020-10-28	+140.5%	+0.0%	+143.2%
2020-10-27	+136.9%	−2.6%	+136.9%
2009-03-09	+128.4%	+0.0%	+132.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

+2.5%

n=20

Feb

50%

+1.4%

n=20

Mar

55%

−1.3%

n=20

Apr

55%

+2.5%

n=20

May

65%

+4.2%

n=20

Jun

50%

−0.6%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.7%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.4%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.7%

n=20

Oct

70%

+2.7%

n=20

Nov

55%

+6.6%

n=20

Dec

40%

−2.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-25	Poulton Donald S.	officer	Withheld for tax	40,770	278,247	Form 4
2026-06-09	Hatch Brent O.	director	Award / grant	12,981	26,859	Form 4
2026-06-09	TANENBAUM ALLAN J	director	Award / grant	12,981	97,097	Form 4
2026-06-09	Hallenbeck Cynthia A	director	Award / grant	12,981	90,686	Form 4
2026-06-09	RUDNICK DAVID L	director	Award / grant	12,981	97,097	Form 4
2026-06-09	MEYER ROBERT	director	Award / grant	12,981	78,298	Form 4
2026-06-09	EVERETS JOHN	director	Award / grant	12,981	97,097	Form 4
2026-03-10	MURSTEIN ANDREW	director	Withheld for tax	165,336	971,064	Form 4
2026-03-10	Poulton Donald S.	officer	Withheld for tax	44,653	319,017	Form 4
2026-03-10	Cutrone Anthony N.	officer	Withheld for tax	41,622	144,800	Form 4
2026-03-10	MURSTEIN ALVIN	director	Withheld for tax	36,809	330,261	Form 4
2026-03-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Withheld for tax	17,168	152,496	Form 4
2026-03-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Award / grant	39,152	169,664	Form 4
2026-03-10	Cutrone Anthony N.	officer	Award / grant	84,858	186,422	Form 4
2026-03-10	MURSTEIN ALVIN	director	Award / grant	72,103	367,070	Form 4
2026-03-10	Poulton Donald S.	officer	Award / grant	101,831	363,670	Form 4
2026-03-10	MURSTEIN ANDREW	director	Award / grant	323,870	1,136,400	Form 4
2026-03-01	MURSTEIN ANDREW	director	Withheld for tax	51,878	812,530	Form 4
2026-03-01	Poulton Donald S.	officer	Withheld for tax	14,996	261,839	Form 4
2026-03-01	Cutrone Anthony N.	officer	Withheld for tax	13,992	101,564	Form 4
2026-03-01	Silverman Marisa T.	officer	Withheld for tax	13,540	92,133	Form 4
2026-03-01	MURSTEIN ALVIN	director	Withheld for tax	11,973	294,967	Form 4
2026-03-01	Haley David Justin	officer	Withheld for tax	7,819	130,512	Form 4
2026-03-01	Munson Thomas J.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,107	61,809	Form 4
2026-03-01	Rudnick Jeffrey D.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,298	24,873	Form 4
2026-03-01	Rozovsky Samantha K.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,002	20,500	Form 4
2026-02-10	Munson Thomas J.	officer	Award / grant	9,653	67,916	Form 4
2026-02-10	MURSTEIN ALVIN	director	Award / grant	39,597	306,940	Form 4
2026-02-10	Rudnick Jeffrey D.	officer	Award / grant	5,212	28,171	Form 4
2026-02-10	Poulton Donald S.	officer	Award / grant	58,760	276,835	Form 4
2026-02-10	Cutrone Anthony N.	officer	Award / grant	24,493	115,556	Form 4
2026-02-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Award / grant	25,941	138,331	Form 4
2026-02-10	Rozovsky Samantha K.	officer	Award / grant	8,687	22,502	Form 4
2026-02-10	Silverman Marisa T.	officer	Award / grant	19,305	105,673	Form 4
2026-02-10	MURSTEIN ANDREW	director	Award / grant	77,220	864,408	Form 4
2025-09-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Option exercise	13,274	14,290	Form 4
2025-09-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Option exercise	13,274	112,390	Form 4
2025-09-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Option exercise	5,203	99,116	Form 4
2025-09-10	Haley David Justin	officer	Option exercise	5,203	27,564	Form 4
2025-06-12	Hallenbeck Cynthia A	director	Award / grant	13,172	73,745	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i