MFAMFA Financial, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.45 · now $8.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MFA has typically landed between $7.30 and $9.49 — a range of −13.6% to +12.3% from the issuance price $8.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MFA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$7.3worst · -13.6%$9.49best · +12.3%
  • now $8.45 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.49 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.08–$8.91
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.3–$9.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-02−83.8%−83.8%+0.0%
2020-03-03−83.6%−83.6%+1.9%
2020-03-04−83.4%−83.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+111.1%−9.8%+111.1%
2020-05-08+88.1%−10.9%+108.4%
2020-05-15+87.4%+0.0%+126.6%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+2.4%
n=20
Feb
45%
−0.1%
n=20
Mar
70%
−3.3%
n=20
Apr
55%
+1.8%
n=20
May
60%
+0.2%
n=20
Jun
70%
+3.3%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.3%
n=20
Aug
60%
+1.2%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
45%
+1.3%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.5%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.7%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$10$82025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $28K — Lin Mei2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $28K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Lin Mei — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-15Lin MeiofficerSale2,775 @ $10.10$28K−20.5% of holding−5.8%+5.2%10,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

170 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Stamps Sheila AdirectorAward / grant16,44854,720Form 4
2026-06-08JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorAward / grant16,448109,238Form 4
2026-06-08Goodman LauriedirectorAward / grant29,057169,448Form 4
2026-06-08Wald Richard C.directorAward / grant16,44894,703Form 4
2026-06-08POLSKY LISAdirectorAward / grant16,44894,703Form 4
2026-06-08Small Christopher R.directorAward / grant16,44832,288Form 4
2026-01-15Goodman LauriedirectorOption exercise3,4739,480Form 4
2026-01-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorOption exercise3,47335,454Form 4
2026-01-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorOption exercise3,47335,454Form 4
2026-01-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorOption exercise3,47392,790Form 4
2026-01-15Goodman LauriedirectorOption exercise3,473140,391Form 4
2026-01-15Goodman LauriedirectorOption exercise3,4739,480Form 4
2026-01-15JOSEPHS ROBINdirectorOption exercise3,47392,790Form 4
2026-01-15Goodman LauriedirectorOption exercise3,473140,391Form 4
2026-01-08Knutson Craig LdirectorWithheld for tax81,0871,225,469Form 4
2026-01-08Knutson Craig LdirectorWithheld for tax42,1271,183,342Form 4
2026-01-08Wulfsohn BryanofficerWithheld for tax35,432404,854Form 4
2026-01-08Schwartz Harold EofficerWithheld for tax15,465165,100Form 4
2026-01-08Wulfsohn BryanofficerWithheld for tax13,339391,515Form 4
2026-01-08Samuels Lori RofficerWithheld for tax9,47996,075Form 4
2026-01-08Roper Michael CharlesofficerWithheld for tax8,81091,355Form 4
2026-01-08Schwartz Harold EofficerWithheld for tax5,582159,518Form 4
2026-01-08Samuels Lori RofficerWithheld for tax3,46192,614Form 4
2026-01-08Roper Michael CharlesofficerWithheld for tax3,21788,138Form 4
2026-01-08Seemungal NatashaofficerWithheld for tax2,26631,560Form 4
2026-01-08Lin MeiofficerWithheld for tax2,05733,466Form 4
2026-01-08Seemungal NatashaofficerWithheld for tax1,47030,090Form 4
2026-01-08Lin MeiofficerWithheld for tax1,33532,131Form 4
2026-01-08Seemungal NatashaofficerOption exercise16,82333,826Form 4
2026-01-08Wulfsohn BryanofficerOption exercise67,914208,196Form 4
2026-01-08Wulfsohn BryanofficerOption exercise232,090440,286Form 4
2026-01-08Knutson Craig LdirectorOption exercise157,481768,370Form 4
2026-01-08Knutson Craig LdirectorOption exercise538,1861,306,556Form 4
2026-01-08Lin MeiofficerOption exercise4,92215,700Form 4
2026-01-08Lin MeiofficerOption exercise16,82335,523Form 4
2026-01-08Roper Michael CharlesofficerOption exercise15,74946,338Form 4
2026-01-08Roper Michael CharlesofficerOption exercise53,827100,165Form 4
2026-01-08Samuels Lori RofficerOption exercise15,74951,727Form 4
2026-01-08Samuels Lori RofficerOption exercise53,827105,554Form 4
2026-01-08Schwartz Harold EofficerOption exercise26,57589,744Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.