Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.90 · now $9.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, METC has typically landed between $7.48 and $13.88 — a range of −24.4% to +40.2% from the issuance price $9.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,396 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-02-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where METC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.79 (-1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.54–$11.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.48–$13.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,396 windows spanning 2017-02-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-21 | −58.4% | −58.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-22 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-20 | −58.0% | −58.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-12 | +116.2% | +0.0% | +116.2% |
| 2025-06-12 | +114.0% | −2.6% | +114.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | +108.5% | −1.6% | +108.5% |
2,396 overlapping windows · 2017-02-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+4.8%
n=9
Feb
22%
+1.6%
n=9
Mar
40%
−3.7%
n=10
Apr
30%
−1.0%
n=10
May
40%
+0.5%
n=10
Jun
20%
−2.0%
n=10
Jul
60%
+4.6%
n=10
Aug
60%
+15.6%
n=10
Sep
40%
+4.1%
n=10
Oct
33%
+2.5%
n=9
Nov
44%
−6.0%
n=9
Dec
56%
+2.7%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | DISCOVERY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC / CT | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 500,000 @ $9.57 | $4.8M | −9.4% of holding | +37.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,811,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | DISCOVERY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC / CT | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 200,000 @ $14.79 | $3.0M | −3.6% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,311,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 2,297 @ $10.34 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,232,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Yorktown Energy Partners XI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,297 @ $10.34 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,232,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 2,297 @ $10.34 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,232,732 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Yorktown XI Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,297 @ $10.34 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,232,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Yorktown Energy Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,266 @ $10.34 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,216,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Yorktown IX Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,266 @ $10.34 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,216,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 2,266 @ $10.34 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,216,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 2,266 @ $10.34 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,216,317 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 1,518 @ $10.34 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 814,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 1,518 @ $10.34 | $16K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 814,793 | Form 4 · filed 72 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 72,567 @ $15.31 | $1.1M | −2.4% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,979,968 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 72,567 @ $15.31 | $1.1M | −2.4% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,979,968 | Form 4 · filed 75 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 59,350 @ $15.31 | $909K | −2.4% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,437,247 | Form 4 · filed 75 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 59,350 @ $15.31 | $909K | −2.4% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,437,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 47,968 @ $15.31 | $734K | −2.4% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,969,646 | Form 4 · filed 75 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 47,968 @ $15.31 | $734K | −2.4% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,969,646 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Yorktown XI Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,168 @ $10.93 | $89K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,235,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 8,168 @ $10.93 | $89K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,235,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Yorktown Energy Partners XI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,168 @ $10.93 | $89K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,235,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 8,168 @ $10.93 | $89K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,235,029 | Form 4 · filed 75 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Yorktown IX Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,059 @ $10.93 | $88K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,218,583 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Yorktown Energy Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,059 @ $10.93 | $88K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,218,583 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 8,059 @ $10.93 | $88K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,218,513 | Form 4 · filed 75 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 8,059 @ $10.93 | $88K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,218,583 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 5,398 @ $10.93 | $59K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 816,311 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 5,398 @ $10.93 | $59K | −0.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 816,311 | Form 4 · filed 75 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 80,683 @ $13.67 | $1.1M | −2.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,052,535 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 80,683 @ $13.67 | $1.1M | −2.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,052,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 65,989 @ $13.67 | $902K | −2.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,496,597 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 65,989 @ $13.67 | $902K | −2.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,496,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 53,328 @ $13.67 | $729K | −2.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,017,614 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 53,328 @ $13.67 | $729K | −2.6% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,017,614 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Yorktown Energy Partners XI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,396 @ $10.78 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,243,197 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 2,396 @ $10.78 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,243,197 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 2,396 @ $10.78 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,243,197 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Yorktown XI Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,396 @ $10.78 | $26K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,243,197 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Yorktown IX Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,364 @ $10.78 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,226,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 2,364 @ $10.78 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,226,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 2,364 @ $10.78 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,226,642 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | Yorktown Energy Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,364 @ $10.78 | $25K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,226,642 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 1,583 @ $10.78 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 821,709 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 1,583 @ $10.78 | $17K | −0.2% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 821,709 | Form 4 · filed 76 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 80,683 @ $14.06 | $1.1M | −2.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,133,218 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 80,683 @ $14.06 | $1.1M | −2.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,133,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 65,989 @ $14.06 | $928K | −2.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,562,586 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 65,989 @ $14.06 | $928K | −2.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,562,586 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 53,328 @ $14.06 | $750K | −2.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,070,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 53,328 @ $14.06 | $750K | −2.5% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,070,942 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Yorktown Energy Partners XI, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,874 @ $11.24 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,245,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 3,874 @ $11.24 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,245,593 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 3,874 @ $11.24 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,245,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Yorktown XI Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,874 @ $11.24 | $44K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,245,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Yorktown Energy Partners IX, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,823 @ $11.24 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,229,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Yorktown IX Associates LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,823 @ $11.24 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,229,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 3,823 @ $11.24 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,229,006 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 3,823 @ $11.24 | $43K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,229,006 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Sale | 2,561 @ $11.24 | $29K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 823,292 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Sale | 2,561 @ $11.24 | $29K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 823,292 | Form 4 · filed 77 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
188 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 88,135 | 253,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 969,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 969,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Other acquisition | 46,777 | 151,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Gift | 500,000 | 483,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 437,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 437,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 13,634 | 165,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Other acquisition | 8,571 | 104,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,437,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | LEIDEL PETER A | director | Other acquisition | 10,713 | 96,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 17,043 | 151,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Lawrence Bryan H. | director | Other acquisition | 1,000,000 | 1,437,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Withheld for tax | 271,525 | 983,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Option exercise | 448,712 | 1,255,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Withheld for tax | 35,313 | 235,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Option exercise | 448,712 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Option exercise | 89,742 | 270,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | FRISCHKORN DAVID E K | director | Award / grant | 7,688 | 61,572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Marcum John Cecil | officer | Award / grant | 23,065 | 23,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Atkins Randall Whittaker | director | Award / grant | 121,732 | 121,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Manchin Joseph Anthony III | director | Award / grant | 7,688 | 18,248 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Fannin Jason Todd | officer | Award / grant | 32,035 | 32,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | WHITING RICHARD M | director | Award / grant | 7,688 | 139,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Horn Paul Bryan Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 38,442 | 38,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kreutzer James Scott | officer | Award / grant | 15,377 | 15,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Blanchard Christopher L | officer | Award / grant | 32,035 | 32,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Giacometto Aurelia Skipwith | director | Award / grant | 7,688 | 38,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Sussman Jeremy R. | officer | Award / grant | 38,442 | 38,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Christian Charles Lynch III | director | Award / grant | 7,688 | 117,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Jones Estill Forrest Jr. | director | Award / grant | 14,095 | 14,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Jenkins Evan H | director | Award / grant | 21,784 | 21,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Graney Michael R | director | Award / grant | 7,688 | 7,688 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | WHITING RICHARD M | director | Other acquisition | 4,089 | 32,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Manchin Joseph Anthony III | director | Other acquisition | 99 | 99 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | FRISCHKORN DAVID E K | director | Other acquisition | 1,602 | 10,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | WHITING RICHARD M | director | Other acquisition | 4,089 | 32,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Christian Charles Lynch III | director | Other acquisition | 3,340 | 23,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Giacometto Aurelia Skipwith | director | Other acquisition | 872 | 4,845 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Giacometto Aurelia Skipwith | director | Other acquisition | 872 | 4,845 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.