Issued 2026-09-25 at $751.66 · now $751.66 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, META has typically landed between $621.67 and $896.28 — a range of −17.3% to +19.2% from the issuance price $751.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,588 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-18 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($751.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where META has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $751.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $751.66 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $767.04 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $713.33–$820.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $621.67–$896.28
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-02 | −38.1% | −38.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-01 | −36.4% | −37.8% | +1.3% |
| 2022-10-05 | −36.0% | −36.0% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-07-05 | +60.8% | +0.0% | +60.8% |
| 2013-07-08 | +56.0% | +0.0% | +58.6% |
| 2013-07-03 | +55.2% | −0.6% | +55.2% |
3,588 overlapping windows · 2012-05-18 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 17 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$266.94
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.0× · n=17$440.73
- Analyst target · range $700.00–$900.00$842.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$751.66
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $725.02 | $14.5M | −9.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 184,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $700.50 | $14.0M | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 204,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 946 @ $680.27 | $644K | −8.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 408 @ $680.27 | $278K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 82 @ $680.27 | $56K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,998 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 57 @ $680.27 | $39K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $675.23 | $13.5M | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 224,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 946 @ $657.73 | $622K | −8.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 408 @ $657.73 | $268K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,845 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 82 @ $657.73 | $54K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 57 @ $657.73 | $37K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Sale | 18,578 @ $650.21 | $12.1M | −7.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 245,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Sale | 1,422 @ $651.15 | $926K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 244,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 855 @ $616.32 | $527K | −6.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 555 @ $617.28 | $343K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,453 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 529 @ $618.18 | $327K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 473 @ $616.79 | $292K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 354 @ $615.88 | $218K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 328 @ $616.06 | $202K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,162 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 304 @ $618.00 | $188K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 262 @ $615.23 | $161K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 258 @ $612.99 | $158K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,242 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 228 @ $616.06 | $140K | −15.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 200 @ $614.49 | $123K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 157 @ $619.11 | $97K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 120 @ $618.93 | $74K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,804 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 117 @ $614.22 | $72K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,125 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 78 @ $620.37 | $48K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 52 @ $620.27 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 52 @ $612.21 | $32K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 40 @ $621.03 | $25K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 40 @ $613.30 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 79,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 24 @ $622.99 | $15K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Sale | 3,240 @ $618.06 | $2.0M | −34.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,271 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bosworth Andrew | officer | Sale | 7,848 @ $558.00 | $4.4M | −90.5% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 1,864 @ $548.20 | $1.0M | −9.1% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,673 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 1,845 @ $547.51 | $1.0M | −8.2% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Mahoney Curtis J. | officer | Sale | 1,559 @ $558.00 | $870K | −44.3% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 1,219 @ $549.25 | $670K | −6.5% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 1,031 @ $551.25 | $568K | −6.2% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 768 @ $553.42 | $425K | −5.1% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 720 @ $557.57 | $401K | −5.1% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 708 @ $550.20 | $390K | −4.1% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 561 @ $552.47 | $310K | −3.6% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,154 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 160 @ $554.39 | $89K | −1.1% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 120 @ $560.63 | $67K | −0.9% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 120 @ $558.12 | $67K | −0.9% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 40 @ $559.59 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,306 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 40 @ $555.83 | $22K | −0.3% of holding | +26.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-15 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Sale | 2,127 @ $689.85 | $1.5M | −12.2% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,347 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 816 @ $600.00 | $490K | −1.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,885 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 164 @ $600.00 | $98K | −2.5% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 149 @ $600.00 | $89K | −2.4% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 114 @ $600.00 | $68K | −7.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 113 @ $602.41 | $68K | −1.8% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 92 @ $604.08 | $56K | −1.5% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,936 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 40 @ $607.14 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Olivan Javier | officer | Sale | 40 @ $605.97 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,896 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Andreessen Marc L | director | Sale | 250 @ $588.16 | $147K | −58.7% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Andreessen Marc L | director | Sale | 87 @ $589.24 | $51K | −49.4% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 89 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
180 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,127 | 264,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bosworth Andrew | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,127 | 8,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,744 | 14,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,922 | 22,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Powell Dina H. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,518 | 10,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mahoney Curtis J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,359 | 3,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,216 | 9,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Songhurst Charles | director | Withheld for tax | 14 | 1,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Elkann John | director | Withheld for tax | 8 | 1,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Arnold John Douglas | director | Option exercise | 167 | 1,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Bosworth Andrew | officer | Option exercise | 6,791 | 7,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Powell Dina H. | director | Option exercise | 5,708 | 78,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Powell Dina H. | director | Option exercise | 2,024 | 8,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | White Dana | director | Option exercise | 110 | 1,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 6,791 | 12,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 4,958 | 69,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 2,679 | 16,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 6,791 | 13,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Option exercise | 2,704 | 37,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Conversion | 1,888 | 16,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | LI SUSAN J | officer | Conversion | 1,888 | 17,474 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 1,450 | 9,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Option exercise | 2,679 | 265,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Option exercise | 6,791 | 263,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Option exercise | 6,791 | 13,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Powell Dina H. | director | Option exercise | 2,024 | 26,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cox Christopher K | officer | Option exercise | 4,958 | 69,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 1,450 | 4,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Songhurst Charles | director | Option exercise | 110 | 1,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 331 | 10,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Elkann John | director | Option exercise | 110 | 1,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 1,960 | 19,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Arnold John Douglas | director | Option exercise | 167 | 3,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 335 | 4,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 4,958 | 22,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 1,960 | 17,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Olivan Javier | officer | Option exercise | 2,679 | 15,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Songhurst Charles | director | Option exercise | 110 | 1,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | White Dana | director | Option exercise | 110 | 1,095 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Anderson Aaron | officer | Option exercise | 332 | 1,997 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | purchase | 2026-07-16 | 2026-04-28 | $1–15K |
| Daniel Crenshaw | House | sale | 2026-07-16 | 2026-06-01 | $1–15K |
| Matthew Robert Van Epps | House | sale | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-28 | $15–50K |
| John Mcguire | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-17 | $1–15K |
| Angus King | Senate | sale | 2026-03-24 | 2026-02-13 | $1–15K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-03-12 | 2026-02-12 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-11 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-03-10 | 2026-02-20 | $1–15K |
| Cleo Fields | House | purchase | 2026-02-24 | 2026-02-03 | $100–250K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.