METMetLife, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Lifeas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $97.23 · now $97.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MET has typically landed between $87.83 and $108.23 — a range of −9.7% to +11.3% from the issuance price $97.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($97.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MET has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $97.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$87.83worst · -9.7%$108.23best · +11.3%
  • now $97.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $98.25 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $93.87–$102.62
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $87.83–$108.23
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-05−59.4%−60.6%+1.8%
2009-02-04−58.7%−59.1%+5.7%
2009-02-03−57.6%−57.6%+9.6%
3 best
2009-03-05+109.3%+0.0%+111.2%
2009-03-06+105.4%+0.0%+109.2%
2008-11-20+99.4%+0.0%+126.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$61.0B
market cap
$5.16
EPS (TTM)
18.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$77.1B
'20'25
Net income$3.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$18.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr4.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.71
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $97.23$76.14$197.77
  • DCF (intrinsic)$189.38
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$84.53
  • Analyst target · range $90.00–$105.00$96.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$97.23

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.4%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.2%
n=19
May
58%
−0.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
63%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
61%
−0.1%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$100$672026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — DEBEL MARLENE2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector DEBEL MARLENE — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-01DEBEL MARLENEdirectorSale21,312 @ $81.59$1.7M−12.1% of holding+8.0%not yet — horizon still open154,380Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12PAPPAS BILLofficerSale26,000 @ $80.49$2.1M−28.0% of holding−5.3%−20.4%66,744Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13DEBEL MARLENEdirectorSale22,810 @ $82.88$1.9M−17.4% of holding+5.2%−3.6%108,507Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13Khalaf MicheldirectorSale20,926 @ $82.84$1.7M−4.0% of holding+5.2%−3.6%500,799Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

241 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08HUBBARD ROBERT GLENNdirectorAward / grant618108,191Form 4
2026-09-08Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant29447,704Form 4
2026-09-08MCKENZIE DIANAdirectorAward / grant15725,385Form 4
2026-09-08TADROS RAMYofficerAward / grant115212,695Form 4
2026-09-08Johnson Jeh C.directorAward / grant599,557Form 4
2026-09-08Harris Carla AdirectorAward / grant4211,157Form 4
2026-09-08Hay Laura JdirectorAward / grant396,357Form 4
2026-09-08Mumenthaler Christian StephanedirectorAward / grant213,474Form 4
2026-09-08Glaser Daniel SdirectorAward / grant102,705Form 4
2026-08-31McCallion John D.officerWithheld for tax6,057269,137Form 4
2026-08-31TADROS RAMYofficerWithheld for tax4,366212,580Form 4
2026-08-31DEBEL MARLENEdirectorWithheld for tax4,030150,350Form 4
2026-08-31PAPPAS BILLofficerWithheld for tax4,03079,716Form 4
2026-06-16HUBBARD ROBERT GLENNdirectorAward / grant1,016107,573Form 4
2026-06-16Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant58747,410Form 4
2026-06-16Johnson Jeh C.directorAward / grant5879,498Form 4
2026-06-16MCKENZIE DIANAdirectorAward / grant58725,229Form 4
2026-06-16Mumenthaler Christian StephanedirectorAward / grant5873,452Form 4
2026-06-16Glaser Daniel SdirectorAward / grant5872,695Form 4
2026-06-16Hay Laura JdirectorAward / grant5876,318Form 4
2026-06-16Harris Carla AdirectorAward / grant58711,115Form 4
2026-06-16Seitz MichelledirectorAward / grant5871,581Form 4
2026-06-16WEINBERGER MARK AdirectorAward / grant58719,388Form 4
2026-06-09HUBBARD ROBERT GLENNdirectorAward / grant678106,557Form 4
2026-06-09Kennard William EdirectorAward / grant32246,823Form 4
2026-06-09MCKENZIE DIANAdirectorAward / grant16924,642Form 4
2026-06-09TADROS RAMYofficerAward / grant127216,946Form 4
2026-06-09Johnson Jeh C.directorAward / grant618,911Form 4
2026-06-09Harris Carla AdirectorAward / grant4210,528Form 4
2026-06-09Hay Laura JdirectorAward / grant395,731Form 4
2026-06-09Mumenthaler Christian StephanedirectorAward / grant202,865Form 4
2026-06-09Glaser Daniel SdirectorAward / grant72,108Form 4
2026-06-01DEBEL MARLENEdirectorOption exercise10,600164,980Form 4
2026-06-01DEBEL MARLENEdirectorOption exercise10,712175,692Form 4
2026-06-01DEBEL MARLENEdirectorOption exercise10,7120Form 4
2026-06-01DEBEL MARLENEdirectorOption exercise10,6000Form 4
2026-04-30O'Neill Adrienne KarenofficerAward / grant12,48527,042Form 4
2026-04-30O'Neill Adrienne KarenofficerAward / grant12,48527,042Form 4
2026-04-01HUBBARD ROBERT GLENNdirectorAward / grant1,248105,878Form 4
2026-04-01Glaser Daniel SdirectorAward / grant7212,101Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.