MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1839.71 · now $1839.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MELI has typically landed between $1506.38 and $2224.60 — a range of −18.1% to +20.9% from the issuance price $1839.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,784 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-08-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1839.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MELI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,840 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1,506worst · -18.1%$2,225best · +20.9%
  • now $1,840 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,842 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1,701–$1,982
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1,506–$2,225
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,784 windows spanning 2007-08-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2007-12-28−54.2%−54.2%+0.0%
2008-10-13−51.1%−51.1%+2.1%
2008-09-26−50.7%−50.7%+0.0%
3 best
2007-11-27+83.1%+0.0%+83.1%
2007-11-28+80.7%−2.7%+80.7%
2007-11-26+77.0%−0.1%+77.0%

4,784 overlapping windows · 2007-08-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Feb
58%
+3.5%
n=19
Mar
58%
+2.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+7.3%
n=19
May
47%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
79%
+5.4%
n=19
Aug
68%
+4.5%
n=19
Sep
35%
−1.9%
n=20
Oct
37%
+0.6%
n=19
Nov
53%
+5.6%
n=19
Dec
42%
+4.5%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3K$2K2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $200K — Melamud Marcelo2026-05-22: 2 insider purchases, $994K — Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas …2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Melamud Marcelo2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $91K — Calemzuk Emiliano2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $504K — Tolda Stelleo2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $100K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $994K2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $200K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Melamud Marcelo — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Aguzin Alejandro Nicolas — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Melamud Marcelo — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Dubugras Henrique Vasoncelos — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Calemzuk Emiliano — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tolda Stelleo — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-11Melamud MarceloofficerPurchase125 @ $1604.62$200K+111.3% of holding+14.2%not yet — horizon still open237Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Aguzin Alejandro NicolasdirectorPurchase505 @ $1656.10$836K+10.4% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open5,355Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Aguzin Alejandro NicolasdirectorPurchase95 @ $1655.01$157K+2.0% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open4,850Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27Melamud MarceloofficerPurchase57 @ $1755.77$100K+103.6% of holding−0.2%−0.9%112Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12Dubugras Henrique VasoncelosdirectorSale845 @ $2028.14$1.7M−100.0% of holding+2.7%−27.6%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11Calemzuk EmilianodirectorSale45 @ $2027.37$91K−14.9% of holding+1.7%−28.6%257Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09Tolda StelleodirectorSale246 @ $2047.88$504K−100.0% of holding+3.1%−31.0%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Tolda StelleodirectorAward / grant9494Form 4
2026-06-12Aguzin Alejandro NicolasdirectorAward / grant945,449Form 4
2026-06-12Calemzuk EmilianodirectorAward / grant9494Form 4
2026-06-12Dubugras Henrique VasoncelosdirectorAward / grant9494Form 4
2026-06-12Lawson Martin RdirectorAward / grant944,230Form 4
2026-06-12Sanders Richard AdirectorAward / grant94508Form 4
2026-06-12SEGAL SUSANdirectorAward / grant9494Form 4
2026-06-10Tolda StelleodirectorGift25075,590Form 4
2025-08-22Tolda StelleodirectorOther acquisition20,00020,000Form 4
2025-08-22Tolda StelleodirectorOther acquisition20,0000Form 4
2025-08-22Tolda StelleodirectorOther acquisition20,00020,000Form 4
2025-08-22Tolda StelleodirectorOther acquisition20,0000Form 4
2025-08-07Sanders Richard AdirectorAward / grant64414Form 4
2025-08-07Tolda StelleodirectorAward / grant82,029Form 4
2025-08-07Tolda StelleodirectorAward / grant6464Form 4
2025-08-07Dubugras Henrique VasoncelosdirectorAward / grant6464Form 4
2025-08-07Calemzuk EmilianodirectorAward / grant64302Form 4
2025-08-07Lawson Martin RdirectorAward / grant644,136Form 4
2025-08-07SEGAL SUSANdirectorAward / grant6464Form 4
2025-08-07Aguzin Alejandro NicolasdirectorAward / grant644,755Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.