Issued 2026-09-16 at $616.44 · now $616.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MEDP has typically landed between $519.51 and $724.93 — a range of −15.7% to +17.6% from the issuance price $616.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,517 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-08-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($616.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MEDP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $616.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $616.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $631.57 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $587.61–$675.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $519.51–$724.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,517 windows spanning 2016-08-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −37.9% | −38.0% | +2.4% |
| 2020-02-18 | −37.1% | −37.1% | +3.9% |
| 2020-02-19 | −35.2% | −38.5% | +1.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-20 | +54.4% | −0.8% | +54.4% |
| 2025-07-15 | +49.7% | −1.2% | +52.8% |
| 2025-07-21 | +49.6% | +0.0% | +54.7% |
2,517 overlapping windows · 2016-08-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+0.6%
n=10
Feb
30%
−3.5%
n=10
Mar
70%
+0.7%
n=10
Apr
60%
−0.8%
n=10
May
50%
+2.5%
n=10
Jun
100%
+8.5%
n=10
Jul
70%
+14.2%
n=10
Aug
70%
+3.2%
n=10
Sep
64%
−0.1%
n=11
Oct
50%
+5.8%
n=10
Nov
70%
+5.8%
n=10
Dec
70%
+2.5%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 650 @ $620.27 | $403K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 539,894 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $620.03 | $2.5M | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 540,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Sale | 3,858 @ $617.81 | $2.4M | −80.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 955 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 673 @ $620.38 | $418K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 544,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 1,983 @ $620.23 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 545,217 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 13,995 @ $624.45 | $8.7M | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 547,200 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 27,174 @ $618.79 | $16.8M | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 561,195 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $625.24 | $2.1M | −20.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,830 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 15,609 @ $606.47 | $9.5M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 588,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Sale | 7,283 @ $606.15 | $4.4M | −65.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Carley Brian T | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $608.63 | $3.0M | −15.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 458 @ $600.39 | $275K | −0.1% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,978 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 11,366 @ $601.53 | $6.8M | −1.8% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 604,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 17,610 @ $605.11 | $10.7M | −2.8% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 615,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Sale | 1,140 @ $605.37 | $690K | −8.5% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,275 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 5,534 @ $601.53 | $3.3M | −0.9% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 633,412 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Sale | 795 @ $585.07 | $465K | −5.6% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,415 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $600.00 | $4.5M | −10.6% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,984 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 3,510 @ $600.01 | $2.1M | −0.5% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 638,946 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 3,728 @ $600.85 | $2.2M | −0.6% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 642,456 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Sale | 16,349 @ $450.00 | $7.4M | −44.6% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,343 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | GEIGER JESSE J | officer | Sale | 31,707 @ $455.30 | $14.4M | −67.9% of holding | +8.4% | +22.4% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 668 @ $590.69 | $395K | −0.1% of holding | +0.9% | −29.7% | 646,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 5,698 @ $590.47 | $3.4M | −0.9% of holding | −2.7% | −33.1% | 646,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 23,178 @ $593.25 | $13.8M | −3.4% of holding | −5.0% | −34.8% | 652,550 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 15,151 @ $593.46 | $9.0M | −2.2% of holding | −4.8% | −36.6% | 675,728 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 41,331 @ $606.88 | $25.1M | −5.6% of holding | −7.5% | −37.8% | 690,879 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 42,392 @ $615.52 | $26.1M | −5.5% of holding | −9.8% | −39.6% | 732,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 59,025 @ $607.78 | $35.9M | −7.1% of holding | −11.1% | −41.0% | 774,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $609.15 | $12.2M | −42.1% of holding | −11.1% | −41.0% | 27,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 21,858 @ $592.18 | $12.9M | −2.6% of holding | −8.4% | −42.2% | 833,627 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $590.35 | $1.8M | −33.3% of holding | −8.4% | −42.2% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 6,830 @ $598.49 | $4.1M | −0.8% of holding | −7.8% | −42.5% | 855,485 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 23,862 @ $592.07 | $14.1M | −2.7% of holding | −7.0% | −40.1% | 862,315 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 7,191 @ $590.84 | $4.2M | −0.8% of holding | −7.6% | −40.3% | 886,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 6,047 @ $591.00 | $3.6M | −0.7% of holding | −5.8% | −40.0% | 893,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 14,747 @ $595.26 | $8.8M | −1.6% of holding | −6.3% | −38.7% | 899,415 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-14 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Sale | 6,472 @ $591.85 | $3.8M | −88.6% of holding | −6.3% | −38.7% | 833 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 5,128 @ $601.37 | $3.1M | −0.6% of holding | −6.7% | −39.4% | 914,162 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 5,312 @ $603.23 | $3.2M | −0.6% of holding | −6.4% | −39.3% | 919,290 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $605.00 | $10.9M | −27.5% of holding | −7.0% | −40.6% | 47,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | GEIGER JESSE J | officer | Sale | 21,503 @ $595.66 | $12.8M | −58.9% of holding | −9.7% | −38.7% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Sale | 5,972 @ $581.88 | $3.5M | −63.1% of holding | +1.2% | −34.4% | 3,498 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | GEIGER JESSE J | officer | Sale | 3,568 @ $585.00 | $2.1M | −8.9% of holding | +1.9% | −34.0% | 36,503 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-27 | GEIGER JESSE J | officer | Sale | 19,460 @ $605.12 | $11.8M | −34.8% of holding | +4.1% | −35.1% | 36,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Sale | 15,230 @ $598.85 | $9.1M | −53.3% of holding | +4.1% | −35.1% | 13,343 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $605.01 | $1.2M | −3.0% of holding | +4.1% | −35.1% | 65,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $480.00 | $4.8M | −14.8% of holding | +7.2% | −8.9% | 57,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $475.11 | $569K | −0.1% of holding | +10.2% | −9.2% | 924,602 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 36,196 @ $475.90 | $17.2M | −3.8% of holding | +4.6% | −8.2% | 925,799 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 620 @ $475.00 | $295K | −0.1% of holding | +2.3% | −11.3% | 961,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Sale | 1,662 @ $465.04 | $773K | −14.0% of holding | +5.1% | −11.0% | 10,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Troendle August J. | director | Sale | 48,487 @ $451.69 | $21.9M | −4.8% of holding | +2.3% | +23.1% | 962,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $450.14 | $3.4M | −11.5% of holding | +2.3% | +23.1% | 57,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $450.00 | $1.4M | −22.5% of holding | +2.3% | +23.1% | 10,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | GEIGER JESSE J | officer | Sale | 41,801 @ $453.11 | $18.9M | −53.4% of holding | +0.0% | +19.8% | 36,503 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-24 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $454.23 | $5.5M | −66.7% of holding | +0.0% | +19.8% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Sale | 1,712 @ $301.82 | $517K | −36.3% of holding | −8.6% | +73.4% | 2,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Purchase | 2 @ $326.11 | $652 | +0.0% of holding | +0.5% | +33.4% | 13,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Carley Brian T | director | Sale | 4,003 @ $345.59 | $1.4M | −13.3% of holding | −2.4% | +27.3% | 26,032 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
159 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Option exercise | 3,858 | 4,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Option exercise | 3,858 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 3,400 | 16,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 3,400 | 3,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Option exercise | 3,858 | 9,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Option exercise | 1,822 | 11,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Option exercise | 1,903 | 5,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Option exercise | 1,903 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Option exercise | 1,822 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Option exercise | 3,858 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Option exercise | 3,858 | 14,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Option exercise | 3,858 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Option exercise | 33 | 64 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Option exercise | 28 | 56 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Carley Brian T | director | Option exercise | 36 | 71 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Option exercise | 33 | 955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Carley Brian T | director | Option exercise | 36 | 32,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Option exercise | 33 | 955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Option exercise | 28 | 10,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Option exercise | 28 | 10,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Carley Brian T | director | Option exercise | 36 | 32,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Option exercise | 16,349 | 36,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Option exercise | 16,349 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | McCarthy Cornelius P. III | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Carley Brian T | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Zander Dani S. | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gwadry-Sridhar Femida H. | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | DAVENPORT FRED B JR | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kraft Robert O. | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 1,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 12,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 20,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | EWALD STEPHEN P | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Troendle August J. | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Troendle August J. | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Option exercise | 7,000 | 6,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Award / grant | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Brady Kevin M. | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | BURWIG SUSAN E | officer | Award / grant | 5,000 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.