MED · TickerCove

MEDMedifast, Inc.Industrials · Personal Products & Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.96 · now $11.96 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MED has typically landed between $9.86 and $13.85 — a range of −17.5% to +15.8% from the issuance price $11.96.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.96) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.96 · 49% of range

$9.45 low$14.57 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−4.7%

typical move · IQR 12.4%

−17.5%worst (p90)+15.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MED has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.96 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.96 (+0.0%)
typical $11.4 (-4.7%)
middle 50% $10.65–$12.14
90% range $9.86–$13.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-12-29	−50.7%	−50.7%	+0.2%
2010-01-05	−50.2%	−50.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−49.3%	−49.3%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-20	+89.6%	+0.0%	+94.0%
2009-04-17	+84.9%	−4.7%	+84.9%
2009-04-27	+82.0%	+0.0%	+84.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−3.3%

n=20

Feb

30%

−4.9%

n=20

Mar

35%

−1.4%

n=20

Apr

80%

+8.6%

n=20

May

60%

+11.3%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.7%

n=20

Jul

60%

+3.6%

n=20

Aug

40%

+2.0%

n=20

Sep

40%

−2.2%

n=20

Oct

45%

−2.9%

n=20

Nov

55%

+3.0%

n=20

Dec

55%

+3.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-26	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	41,975 @ $12.26	$515K	+6.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	707,492	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-26	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	1,175 @ $12.26	$14K	+6.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	20,270	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	4,211 @ $12.00	$51K	+0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	665,517	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-24	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	118 @ $12.00	$1K	+0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	19,095	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	41,975 @ $11.60	$487K	+6.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	661,306	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	1,175 @ $11.60	$14K	+6.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	18,977	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-19	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	28,538 @ $11.66	$333K	+4.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	619,331	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Kiai Parsa	director	Purchase	799 @ $11.66	$9K	+4.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	17,802	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-11	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $12.53	$31K	+8.9% of holding	−0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	30,549	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $12.65	$32K	+9.8% of holding	−3.2%	not yet — horizon still open	28,049	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20	Chard Daniel R	director	Purchase	17,678 @ $10.11	$179K	ownership Δ n/a	+1.9%	not yet — horizon still open	17,678	Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-06-13	Chard Daniel R	director	Purchase	381 @ $13.13	$5K	+0.3% of holding	−0.3%	−19.6%	149,698	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-26	Geary Elizabeth A.	director	Award / grant	11,680	31,225	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kiai Parsa	director	Award / grant	11,680	11,680	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kiai Parsa	director	Award / grant	7,637	19,317	Form 4
2026-05-26	Xian Ming	director	Award / grant	11,680	43,823	Form 4
2026-05-26	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	director	Award / grant	11,680	42,229	Form 4
2026-05-26	Thomas Andrea B	director	Award / grant	11,680	35,697	Form 4
2026-05-26	Rose Jeffrey Matthew	director	Award / grant	11,680	11,680	Form 4
2026-05-26	Rose Jeffrey Matthew	director	Award / grant	6,739	18,419	Form 4
2026-03-25	Chard Daniel R	director	Withheld for tax	20,095	146,438	Form 4
2026-03-25	Maloney James P.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,224	37,675	Form 4
2026-03-25	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Withheld for tax	862	10,008	Form 4
2026-03-25	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Award / grant	10,830	20,838	Form 4
2026-03-25	Maloney James P.	officer	Award / grant	34,344	72,019	Form 4
2026-03-25	Chard Daniel R	director	Award / grant	36,968	183,406	Form 4
2026-03-25	Chard Daniel R	director	Award / grant	4,827	188,233	Form 4
2026-03-25	Maloney James P.	officer	Award / grant	1,014	73,033	Form 4
2026-03-17	Chard Daniel R	director	Withheld for tax	2,638	166,533	Form 4
2026-03-17	Maloney James P.	officer	Withheld for tax	482	40,899	Form 4
2026-03-17	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Withheld for tax	70	10,870	Form 4
2026-03-13	Chard Daniel R	director	Withheld for tax	7,075	169,171	Form 4
2026-03-13	Maloney James P.	officer	Withheld for tax	918	41,381	Form 4
2026-03-13	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Withheld for tax	198	10,940	Form 4
2025-06-25	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Award / grant	9,449	38,578	Form 4
2025-06-25	Xian Ming	director	Award / grant	6,013	32,143	Form 4
2025-06-25	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Award / grant	11,168	29,128	Form 4
2025-06-25	Xian Ming	director	Award / grant	11,168	26,130	Form 4
2025-06-25	Geary Elizabeth A.	director	Award / grant	11,168	19,545	Form 4
2025-06-25	Hoer Michael A.	director	Award / grant	11,168	26,139	Form 4
2025-06-25	Thomas Andrea B	director	Award / grant	11,168	24,017	Form 4
2025-06-25	SCHLACKMAN SCOTT	director	Award / grant	11,168	25,549	Form 4
2025-03-25	Chard Daniel R	director	Award / grant	124,953	176,246	Form 4
2025-03-25	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Award / grant	7,671	11,138	Form 4
2025-03-25	Maloney James P.	officer	Award / grant	24,161	42,299	Form 4
2025-03-17	Chard Daniel R	director	Withheld for tax	1,864	51,293	Form 4
2025-03-17	Maloney James P.	officer	Withheld for tax	438	18,138	Form 4
2025-03-17	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Withheld for tax	99	3,467	Form 4
2025-03-16	Chard Daniel R	director	Withheld for tax	944	53,157	Form 4
2025-03-16	Maloney James P.	officer	Withheld for tax	123	18,576	Form 4
2025-03-16	MacKenzie Jonathan Barrett	officer	Withheld for tax	60	3,566	Form 4
2025-03-13	Chard Daniel R	director	Withheld for tax	5,001	54,101	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i