MEC · TickerCove

MECMayville Engineering Company, Inc.Industrials · Manufacturing - Metal Fabricationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.32 · now $17.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MEC has typically landed between $13.83 and $21.60 — a range of −20.2% to +24.7% from the issuance price $17.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,828 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.32 · 19% of range

$12.56 low$37.54 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 18.4%

−20.2%worst (p90)+24.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MEC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.32 (+0.0%)
typical $17.23 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $15.64–$18.83
90% range $13.83–$21.6

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,828 windows spanning 2019-05-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−47.9%	−47.9%	+4.4%
2019-10-01	−39.0%	−39.0%	+3.1%
2019-10-02	−35.1%	−40.2%	+1.0%
3 best
2022-10-31	+92.2%	+0.0%	+92.2%
2022-11-01	+89.3%	+0.0%	+89.3%
2022-10-28	+89.1%	−0.9%	+89.1%

1,828 overlapping windows · 2019-05-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

57%

−2.5%

n=7

Feb

43%

−2.1%

n=7

Mar

29%

−5.5%

n=7

Apr

29%

−2.7%

n=7

May

86%

+15.0%

n=7

Jun

75%

+6.8%

n=8

Jul

25%

−5.4%

n=8

Aug

38%

−5.5%

n=8

Sep

38%

+1.6%

n=8

Oct

43%

−0.7%

n=7

Nov

57%

+13.1%

n=7

Dec

71%

+5.5%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-06	Leuba Sean P	officer	Sale	12,855 @ $25.44	$327K	−66.0% of holding	−21.0%	not yet — horizon still open	6,633	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-11	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Sale	15,688 @ $35.05	$550K	−11.2% of holding	−4.3%	not yet — horizon still open	124,105	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Sale	1,300 @ $35.01	$46K	−0.9% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	139,793	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Sale	17,942 @ $30.00	$538K	−11.3% of holding	+15.5%	not yet — horizon still open	140,445	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26	Raber Ryan F	officer	Sale	20,000 @ $26.00	$520K	−18.7% of holding	+34.3%	not yet — horizon still open	86,970	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21	Nichols Craig D	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $23.24	$93K	−96.5% of holding	+48.7%	not yet — horizon still open	146	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-07	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Sale	11,464 @ $26.11	$299K	−6.7% of holding	+28.2%	not yet — horizon still open	158,387	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Sale	10,332 @ $25.72	$266K	−5.7% of holding	+28.2%	not yet — horizon still open	169,851	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Leuba Sean P	officer	Sale	6,698 @ $18.81	$126K	−36.1% of holding	−0.6%	−11.0%	11,841	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Leuba Sean P	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $20.07	$50K	−100.0% of holding	−0.6%	−11.0%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	Fisher Steven L	director	Sale	5,000 @ $19.14	$96K	−14.1% of holding	+1.4%	+74.4%	30,482	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	Fisher Steven L	director	Sale	5,000 @ $19.08	$95K	−12.4% of holding	+1.4%	+74.4%	35,482	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25	Raber Ryan F	officer	Sale	12,500 @ $16.69	$209K	−11.8% of holding	+11.2%	+47.1%	93,518	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Raber Ryan F	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $16.63	$42K	−2.7% of holding	+11.2%	+47.1%	91,018	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	Leuba Sean P	officer	Purchase	500 @ $13.56	$7K	+25.0% of holding	+2.8%	+45.6%	2,500	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Purchase	1,400 @ $14.08	$20K	+7.2% of holding	+3.2%	+45.5%	20,761	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-07	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $14.06	$105K	+5.4% of holding	+2.8%	+42.2%	146,285	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Purchase	380 @ $13.75	$5K	ownership Δ n/a	−5.5%	−16.1%	380	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06	Leuba Sean P	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $14.18	$14K	+100.0% of holding	−0.0%	−9.0%	2,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-08	Leuba Sean P	officer	Gift	1,015	19,488	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	5,883	36,365	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	19,532	55,897	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	14,485	70,382	Form 4
2026-04-21	Christen Timothy L	director	Award / grant	7,150	7,150	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	10,331	80,713	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	5,883	34,017	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	19,532	14,485	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	14,485	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Fisher Steven L	director	Option exercise	10,331	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Kent Jennifer J.	director	Award / grant	5,959	30,775	Form 4
2026-04-21	McCormick Robert L	director	Option exercise	10,331	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Rothman Jay O.	director	Award / grant	5,959	71,451	Form 4
2026-04-21	Schyvinck Christine M.	director	Award / grant	5,959	5,959	Form 4
2026-04-21	Wingfield Tania	director	Option exercise	5,949	5,949	Form 4
2026-04-21	Wingfield Tania	director	Option exercise	5,949	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	Wingfield Tania	director	Award / grant	5,959	5,959	Form 4
2026-04-21	McCormick Robert L	director	Option exercise	10,331	29,078	Form 4
2026-04-21	Christen Timothy L	director	Option exercise	12,397	153,804	Form 4
2026-04-21	Christen Timothy L	director	Option exercise	12,397	0	Form 4
2026-04-21	McCormick Robert L	director	Award / grant	5,959	5,959	Form 4
2026-03-15	Reddy Jagadeesh A	director	Withheld for tax	30,062	180,183	Form 4
2026-03-15	Raber Ryan F	officer	Withheld for tax	14,150	106,970	Form 4
2026-03-15	Leuba Sean P	officer	Withheld for tax	5,277	18,473	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Withheld for tax	4,600	30,529	Form 4
2026-03-15	Nichols Craig D	officer	Withheld for tax	1,662	4,146	Form 4
2026-03-15	Raber Ryan F	officer	Option exercise	12,452	24,901	Form 4
2026-03-15	Leuba Sean P	officer	Option exercise	7,263	19,104	Form 4
2026-03-15	Leuba Sean P	officer	Option exercise	4,646	23,750	Form 4
2026-03-15	Leuba Sean P	officer	Option exercise	7,263	7,263	Form 4
2026-03-15	Leuba Sean P	officer	Option exercise	4,646	9,292	Form 4
2026-03-15	Leuba Sean P	officer	Award / grant	13,498	13,498	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Option exercise	8,560	29,321	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Option exercise	5,808	35,129	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Option exercise	8,560	8,560	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Option exercise	5,808	11,614	Form 4
2026-03-15	Lehr Rachele Marie	officer	Award / grant	16,497	16,497	Form 4
2026-03-15	Nichols Craig D	officer	Option exercise	5,808	5,808	Form 4
2026-03-15	Nichols Craig D	officer	Option exercise	5,808	11,614	Form 4
2026-03-15	Nichols Craig D	officer	Award / grant	14,998	14,998	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i