Issued 2026-09-25 at $13.84 · now $13.84 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MDWD has typically landed between $11.01 and $17.64 — a range of −20.5% to +27.5% from the issuance price $13.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,128 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-03-20 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($13.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MDWD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $13.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.65 (-1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.49–$14.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.01–$17.64
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −47.2% | −47.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-03 | −46.2% | −46.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-11 | +109.2% | +0.0% | +109.2% |
| 2020-06-15 | +106.2% | +0.0% | +106.2% |
| 2020-06-12 | +97.4% | +0.0% | +100.5% |
3,128 overlapping windows · 2014-03-20 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Double Blind Study Performed to Evaluate the Efficacy and the Safety of EscharEx in Debridement of VLU (VALUE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Rubinstein Samuel | director | Sale | 525 @ $12.72 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Rubinstein Samuel | director | Purchase | 525 @ $12.62 | $7K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hess Shmuel | officer | Sale | 1,979 @ $13.13 | $26K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hess Shmuel | officer | Sale | 1,979 @ $12.72 | $25K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Hess Shmuel | officer | Sale | 1,865 @ $13.00 | $24K | −100.0% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | SHAMIR NACHUM | director | Purchase | 5,825 @ $14.00 | $82K | +11.7% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | SHAMIR NACHUM | director | Purchase | 175 @ $13.97 | $2K | +0.4% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fox David Morton | director | Purchase | 1,797 @ $13.99 | $25K | +8.8% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fox David Morton | director | Purchase | 1,730 @ $14.22 | $25K | +9.2% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,476 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fox David Morton | director | Purchase | 10 @ $14.23 | $142 | +0.0% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,486 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Rubinstein Samuel | director | Purchase | 150 @ $14.33 | $2K | +5.3% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,993 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
2 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Hess Shmuel | officer | Option exercise | 11,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hess Shmuel | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 27,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.