MDV · TickerCove

MDVModiv Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Industrialas of 2026-08-21

Horizon

Issued 2026-08-21 at $18.05 · now $18.05 (2026-08-11, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-21 close, MDV has typically landed between $15.90 and $21.39 — a range of −11.9% to +18.5% from the issuance price $18.05.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,106 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-02-11 – 2026-07-13 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,405 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-21 issuance close ($18.05) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-21, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$18.05 · 89% of range

$13.17 low$18.63 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-11 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,405 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 8.4%

−11.9%worst (p90)+18.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MDV has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-21 close of $18.05 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $18.05 (+0.0%)
typical $18.2 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $17.44–$18.95
90% range $15.9–$21.39

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,106 windows spanning 2022-02-11 to 2026-08-11. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-02-14	−71.0%	−74.2%	+0.0%
2022-02-11	−69.4%	−76.1%	+0.0%
2022-02-15	−41.8%	−47.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-11-01	+55.6%	−5.6%	+55.6%
2023-05-01	+39.8%	+0.0%	+40.2%
2022-11-02	+37.9%	−4.4%	+57.6%

1,106 overlapping windows · 2022-02-11 – 2026-08-11 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+5.7%

n=4

Feb

75%

+1.2%

n=4

Mar

60%

+0.8%

n=5

Apr

80%

+2.2%

n=5

May

80%

+8.6%

n=5

Jun

20%

−2.8%

n=5

Jul

60%

−3.4%

n=5

Aug

80%

+3.9%

n=5

Sep

50%

+7.7%

n=4

Oct

25%

−8.5%

n=4

Nov

75%

+6.5%

n=4

Dec

−5.0%

n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	2,253 @ $17.21	$39K	+1.7% of holding	+1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	136,497	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-30	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	1,333 @ $17.55	$23K	+1.0% of holding	+1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	137,830	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-26	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	4,766 @ $17.50	$83K	+3.7% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	133,245	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-26	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $17.45	$17K	+0.8% of holding	−1.4%	not yet — horizon still open	134,245	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-27	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	500 @ $14.10	$7K	+0.4% of holding	−0.9%	−6.0%	121,501	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-26	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	129 @ $14.10	$2K	+0.1% of holding	−0.7%	−6.9%	121,001	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-25	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Purchase	300 @ $14.25	$4K	+3.8% of holding	−2.0%	−8.2%	8,096	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-25	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Purchase	100 @ $14.20	$1K	+1.3% of holding	−2.0%	−8.2%	7,796	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-13	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	43 @ $14.09	$606	+0.0% of holding	−1.7%	−5.0%	120,043	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-03	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	3,121 @ $14.10	$44K	+2.7% of holding	−1.3%	−7.8%	120,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $14.59	$15K	+15.2% of holding	−2.0%	−10.3%	7,599	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	671 @ $14.27	$10K	+0.6% of holding	−2.0%	−10.3%	116,083	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	1,750 @ $14.49	$25K	+1.5% of holding	−6.7%	−15.6%	115,412	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Purchase	250 @ $14.40	$4K	+0.2% of holding	−6.7%	−15.6%	113,662	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-12	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Disposition	2,292	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Raney John Connor	officer	Disposition	400	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	NOLAN THOMAS H JR	director	Disposition	394	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Pacini Raymond J	officer	Option exercise	65,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Raney John Connor	officer	Disposition	225,833	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Raney John Connor	officer	Option exercise	162,500	225,833	Form 4
2026-08-12	Raney John Connor	officer	Option exercise	162,500	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	GRISHAM SARA R	officer	Option exercise	40,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	GRISHAM SARA R	officer	Option exercise	40,000	40,000	Form 4
2026-08-12	GRISHAM SARA R	officer	Disposition	40,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Pacini Raymond J	officer	Disposition	65,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Option exercise	546,543	1,000,000	Form 4
2026-08-12	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Option exercise	546,543	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Disposition	1,000,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Pacini Raymond J	officer	Option exercise	65,000	65,000	Form 4
2026-08-12	Pacini Raymond J	officer	Disposition	115,581	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Disposition	12,938	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Disposition	137,830	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Disposition	137,830	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Raney John Connor	officer	Disposition	2,183	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Pacini Raymond J	officer	Disposition	115,581	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	SMITH KIMBERLY J	director	Disposition	18,368	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Tirondola Connie	director	Disposition	15,174	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Disposition	12,938	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	NOLAN THOMAS H JR	director	Disposition	30,117	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	NOLAN THOMAS H JR	director	Disposition	30,117	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Raney John Connor	officer	Disposition	2,183	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	SMITH KIMBERLY J	director	Disposition	18,368	0	Form 4
2026-08-12	Tirondola Connie	director	Disposition	15,174	0	Form 4
2026-05-15	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Other acquisition	30	12,938	Form 4
2026-04-15	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Other acquisition	43	2,292	Form 4
2026-04-15	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Other acquisition	35	12,908	Form 4
2026-03-31	NOLAN THOMAS H JR	director	Award / grant	1,047	30,117	Form 4
2026-03-31	Tirondola Connie	director	Award / grant	1,047	15,174	Form 4
2026-03-31	SMITH KIMBERLY J	director	Award / grant	1,047	18,368	Form 4
2026-03-31	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Award / grant	1,047	12,874	Form 4
2026-03-13	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Other acquisition	37	11,826	Form 4
2026-02-13	Halfacre Aaron Scott	director	Other acquisition	896	128,478	Form 4
2026-02-13	SMITH KIMBERLY J	director	Other acquisition	121	17,320	Form 4
2026-02-13	Gingras Christopher Raymond	director	Other acquisition	45	11,754	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

3d remaining

2026-08-2290% elapsed2026-09-21

Logged immutably 2026-08-22; scored automatically on 2026-09-21 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i