MDU · TickerCove

MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc.Utilities · Regulated Gasas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.65 · now $18.65 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MDU has typically landed between $17.14 and $20.79 — a range of −8.1% to +11.5% from the issuance price $18.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$18.65 · 44% of range

$15.53 low$22.65 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 8.2%

−8.1%worst (p90)+11.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MDU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $18.65 (+0.0%)
typical $18.79 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $18.03–$19.55
90% range $17.14–$20.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−50.8%	−50.8%	+1.4%
2008-09-26	−44.7%	−44.7%	+1.1%
2020-02-21	−44.3%	−50.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+48.2%	+0.0%	+58.7%
2024-11-01	+31.5%	+0.0%	+33.5%
2008-11-20	+30.4%	+0.0%	+44.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Feb

60%

−0.5%

n=20

Mar

70%

+2.6%

n=20

Apr

65%

+2.9%

n=20

May

45%

+0.3%

n=20

Jun

50%

+0.2%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.0%

n=20

Aug

30%

−1.3%

n=20

Sep

45%

−0.7%

n=20

Oct

70%

+1.5%

n=20

Nov

70%

+3.0%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-13	KELLEY CHARLES M	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $20.84	$104K	+165.0% of holding	+0.3%	−13.7%	8,031	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-08	Vollmer Jason L	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $16.07	$80K	+1.5% of holding	+10.7%	+27.6%	344,548	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-19	Vollmer Jason L	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $16.27	$81K	+1.5% of holding	−4.6%	+17.8%	339,548	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-10	JOHNSON DENNIS W	director	Purchase	30,000 @ $16.64	$499K	+20.0% of holding	+9.0%	−4.6%	180,166	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	1,293	18,834	Form 4
2026-06-30	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	152	11,676	Form 4
2026-03-31	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	1,334	17,464	Form 4
2026-03-31	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	157	11,524	Form 4
2026-02-18	Vollmer Jason L	officer	Withheld for tax	36,766	324,976	Form 4
2026-02-18	Kivisto Nicole A	director	Withheld for tax	35,668	547,961	Form 4
2026-02-18	Jones Anne M	officer	Withheld for tax	12,010	118,017	Form 4
2026-02-18	Johnson Rob L.	officer	Withheld for tax	10,630	82,665	Form 4
2026-02-18	Sievert Stephanie A	officer	Withheld for tax	10,438	90,503	Form 4
2026-02-18	Senger Garret	officer	Withheld for tax	8,167	100,048	Form 4
2026-02-17	Jones Anne M	officer	Award / grant	5,523	130,027	Form 4
2026-02-17	Boese Dyke A.	officer	Award / grant	3,702	7,084	Form 4
2026-02-17	Kivisto Nicole A	director	Award / grant	45,037	583,629	Form 4
2026-02-17	Senger Garret	officer	Award / grant	6,920	108,215	Form 4
2026-02-17	Sievert Stephanie A	officer	Award / grant	4,544	100,941	Form 4
2026-02-17	Johnson Rob L.	officer	Award / grant	5,830	93,295	Form 4
2026-02-17	Foti Anthony Donald	officer	Award / grant	8,161	16,634	Form 4
2026-02-17	Vollmer Jason L	officer	Award / grant	15,229	361,742	Form 4
2025-12-31	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	164	11,367	Form 4
2025-12-31	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	1,394	16,130	Form 4
2025-11-13	KELLEY CHARLES M	director	Award / grant	3,031	3,031	Form 4
2025-11-13	ANDERSON DARREL T	director	Award / grant	8,082	17,594	Form 4
2025-11-13	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	7,274	14,736	Form 4
2025-11-13	JOHNSON DENNIS W	director	Award / grant	7,779	187,945	Form 4
2025-11-13	Jaeger Douglas W.	director	Award / grant	7,274	12,726	Form 4
2025-11-13	Miller Tammy J	director	Award / grant	3,031	6,031	Form 4
2025-11-13	Patel Priti Rashmikant	director	Award / grant	4,849	4,849	Form 4
2025-11-13	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	7,274	11,203	Form 4
2025-09-30	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	182	3,929	Form 4
2025-09-30	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	1,541	7,462	Form 4
2025-06-30	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	175	3,747	Form 4
2025-06-30	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	1,658	5,921	Form 4
2025-05-15	Boese Dyke A.	officer	Discretionary	7,749	17,274	Form 4
2025-03-31	DURKIN MARIAN M	director	Award / grant	165	3,572	Form 4
2025-03-31	Dosch Vernon A.	director	Award / grant	1,650	4,263	Form 4
2025-02-12	Vollmer Jason L	officer	Withheld for tax	30,429	332,689	Form 4
2025-02-12	Kivisto Nicole A	director	Withheld for tax	30,316	538,093	Form 4
2025-02-12	Jones Anne M	officer	Withheld for tax	10,778	124,504	Form 4
2025-02-12	Sievert Stephanie A	officer	Withheld for tax	9,506	96,333	Form 4
2025-02-12	Senger Garret	officer	Withheld for tax	7,470	101,295	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i