MDTMedtronic plcHealthcare · Medical - Devicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.60 · now $92.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MDT has typically landed between $83.48 and $101.34 — a range of −9.9% to +9.4% from the issuance price $92.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MDT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$83.48worst · -9.9%$101.34best · +9.4%
  • now $92.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $92.47 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $88.25–$96.68
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $83.48–$101.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−35.6%−35.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−33.8%−33.8%+1.1%
2020-02-13−33.7%−33.7%+0.4%
3 best
2020-03-18+39.5%−2.2%+39.5%
2020-03-23+32.6%+0.0%+42.6%
2020-03-19+29.0%−8.0%+31.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$106.5B
market cap
$3.73
EPS (TTM)
22.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-01
next earnings
Revenue$36.4B
'21'26
Net income$4.8B
'21'26
Free cash flow$5.4B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr13.2%
'21'26
ROE · by yr9.7%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.57
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $92.60$71.49$194.84
  • DCF (intrinsic)$186.33
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$102.35
  • Analyst target · range $80.00–$119.00$91.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$92.60

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Mar
58%
+0.1%
n=19
Apr
42%
+0.8%
n=19
May
58%
+0.0%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jul
79%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$103$732026-07-08: 1 insider sale, $258K — Walter Matthew R.2026-06-08: 2 insider sales, $337K — KIIL HARRY SKIP …2026-02-19: 5 insider sales, $5.1M — KIIL HARRY SKIP …2025-11-19: 7 insider sales, $3.1M — Smith Gregory L …2025-09-03: 2 insider sales, $788K — KIIL HARRY SKIP …2025-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $231K — Jellison William R2025-08-22: 1 insider purchase, $232K — Jellison William R2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $463K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $788K2025-11: 7 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $5.1M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $337K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $258K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Walter Matthew R. — Sale on 2026-07-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 7 days after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 7 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Smith Gregory L — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer KIIL HARRY SKIP — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Jellison William R — Purchase on 2025-08-25, filed same daydirector Jellison William R — Purchase on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-08Walter Matthew R.officerSale3,102 @ $83.15$258K−8.0% of holding+1.7%not yet — horizon still open35,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale3,961 @ $80.44$319K−9.6% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open37,455Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale228 @ $80.45$18K−0.6% of holding+1.1%not yet — horizon still open37,227Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale30,568 @ $97.66$3.0M−36.5% of holding−6.7%−15.8%53,076Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-02-19KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale19,255 @ $97.77$1.9M−36.3% of holding−6.7%−15.8%33,821Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-02-19KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale1,648 @ $97.86$161K−1.9% of holding−6.7%−15.8%83,644Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-02-19KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale668 @ $97.83$65K−2.0% of holding−6.7%−15.8%33,153Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2026-02-19KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale385 @ $97.82$38K−1.2% of holding−6.7%−15.8%32,768Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale24,186 @ $101.93$2.5M−31.8% of holding−4.7%−33.6%51,830Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale1,995 @ $102.03$204K−4.0% of holding−4.7%−33.6%47,893Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale1,942 @ $101.99$198K−3.7% of holding−4.7%−33.6%49,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale825 @ $102.04$84K−1.7% of holding−4.7%−33.6%47,068Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale500 @ $102.08$51K−1.1% of holding−4.7%−33.6%46,016Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale325 @ $102.06$33K−0.7% of holding−4.7%−33.6%46,516Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Smith Gregory LdirectorSale227 @ $102.05$23K−0.5% of holding−4.7%−33.6%46,841Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale8,405 @ $91.58$770K−19.0% of holding+0.0%−4.1%35,815Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerSale200 @ $91.59$18K−0.6% of holding+0.0%−4.1%35,615Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25Jellison William RdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $92.37$231K+100.0% of holding+0.8%−1.9%5,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-22Jellison William RdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $92.73$232Kownership Δ n/a−0.6%−1.2%2,500Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-24Wall Brett A.officerSale12,437 @ $90.00$1.1M−23.3% of holding+2.6%−1.8%40,979Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-08Wall Brett A.officerSale6,850 @ $80.41$551K−13.5% of holding+7.3%+3.7%43,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-08Wall Brett A.officerSale3,000 @ $80.41$241K−6.9% of holding+7.3%+3.7%40,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Blomquist Denise L.officerGift60016,398Form 4
2026-08-20Marinaro MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,084116,336Form 4
2026-08-03Blomquist Denise L.officerAward / grant2,33716,998Form 4
2026-08-03Martha GeoffreydirectorAward / grant41,533327,866Form 4
2026-08-03KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerAward / grant65,55665,556Form 4
2026-08-03KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerAward / grant23,07423,074Form 4
2026-08-03KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerAward / grant9,23043,669Form 4
2026-08-03Martha GeoffreydirectorAward / grant103,831103,831Form 4
2026-08-03Blomquist Denise L.officerAward / grant1,3661,366Form 4
2026-08-03Martha GeoffreydirectorAward / grant295,002295,002Form 4
2026-08-03Blomquist Denise L.officerAward / grant2,3372,337Form 4
2026-08-03Martha GeoffreydirectorAward / grant273,150273,150Form 4
2026-08-03Quinn MichelleofficerAward / grant6,34626,721Form 4
2026-08-03Quinn MichelleofficerAward / grant15,86315,863Form 4
2026-08-03Quinn MichelleofficerAward / grant45,07045,070Form 4
2026-08-03Walter Matthew R.officerAward / grant5,76939,928Form 4
2026-08-03Walter Matthew R.officerAward / grant14,42114,421Form 4
2026-08-03Walter Matthew R.officerAward / grant40,97340,973Form 4
2026-08-03Pieton ThierryofficerAward / grant11,53749,645Form 4
2026-08-03Pieton ThierryofficerAward / grant28,84228,842Form 4
2026-08-03Pieton ThierryofficerAward / grant81,94581,945Form 4
2026-08-03Thompson KweliofficerAward / grant6,92335,390Form 4
2026-08-03Thompson KweliofficerAward / grant17,30617,306Form 4
2026-08-03Thompson KweliofficerAward / grant49,16749,167Form 4
2026-08-03Marinaro MichaelofficerAward / grant27,40027,400Form 4
2026-08-03Marinaro MichaelofficerAward / grant46,147117,420Form 4
2026-08-03Marinaro MichaelofficerAward / grant10,96071,273Form 4
2026-08-03Marinaro MichaelofficerAward / grant77,84877,848Form 4
2026-07-31Martha GeoffreydirectorWithheld for tax15,810286,333Form 4
2026-07-31Marinaro MichaelofficerWithheld for tax3,35660,313Form 4
2026-07-31KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerWithheld for tax3,07434,439Form 4
2026-07-31Thompson KweliofficerWithheld for tax1,73928,467Form 4
2026-07-31Walter Matthew R.officerWithheld for tax1,67534,159Form 4
2026-07-31Blomquist Denise L.officerWithheld for tax21214,661Form 4
2026-07-28Quinn MichelleofficerWithheld for tax2,06920,375Form 4
2026-06-05Blomquist Denise L.officerWithheld for tax23714,737Form 4
2026-06-04Martha GeoffreydirectorWithheld for tax41,936301,163Form 4
2026-06-04Marinaro MichaelofficerWithheld for tax7,47163,122Form 4
2026-06-04KIIL HARRY SKIPofficerWithheld for tax6,81741,416Form 4
2026-06-04Walter Matthew R.officerWithheld for tax2,84038,689Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-06-082026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$15–50K
Kevin HernHousesale2026-04-032026-03-20$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-12-092025-11-05$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousepurchase2025-09-172023-03-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.