MDLZMondelez International, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Food Confectionersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $62.36 · now $62.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MDLZ has typically landed between $57.14 and $68.00 — a range of −8.4% to +9.1% from the issuance price $62.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($62.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MDLZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $62.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$57.14worst · -8.4%$68best · +9.1%
  • now $62.36 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $62.59 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.04–$65.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.14–$68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−28.6%−28.6%+0.0%
2009-02-03−27.0%−27.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−26.6%−26.6%+0.0%
3 best
2012-09-07+117.1%−1.0%+121.1%
2012-09-12+116.7%+0.0%+123.3%
2012-09-11+115.9%−0.4%+122.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$77.7B
market cap
$2.00
EPS (TTM)
30.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$38.5B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.87
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 28 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $62.36$44.14$112.99
  • DCF (intrinsic)$108.24
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 24.4× · n=28$48.89
  • Analyst target · range $61.00–$73.00$66.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$62.36

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.6%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
89%
+3.5%
n=19
May
47%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
37%
−0.9%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.7%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+6.1%
n=18
Nov
50%
+0.5%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$65$512026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $8.6M — Van de Put Dirk2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $62 — Stevens Brian2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $4K — Stevens Brian2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $186K — Valle Gustavo Carlos2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $186K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $4K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $622026-08: 1 open-market sale, $8.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Van de Put Dirk — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Stevens Brian — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Stevens Brian — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Valle Gustavo Carlos — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Van de Put DirkdirectorSale133,580 @ $64.08$8.6M−9.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,326,488Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Stevens BrianofficerSale1 @ $61.55$62−100.0% of holding−5.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-30Stevens BrianofficerSale63 @ $61.46$4K−75.0% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open21Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-13Valle Gustavo CarlosofficerSale3,000 @ $62.00$186K−2.9% of holding−5.8%−12.9%99,596Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Zaramella LucadirectorWithheld for tax18,695404,013Form 4
2026-09-02Zaramella LucadirectorOption exercise22,570422,708Form 4
2026-09-02Zaramella LucadirectorOption exercise22,5700Form 4
2026-08-19Van de Put DirkdirectorOption exercise133,5801,460,068Form 4
2026-08-19Van de Put DirkdirectorOption exercise133,5800Form 4
2026-07-01BANATI AMITdirectorAward / grant122,210122,210Form 4
2026-07-01BANATI AMITdirectorAward / grant20,37020,370Form 4
2026-05-20Siewert PatrickdirectorAward / grant3,52562,772Form 4
2026-05-20COUSIN ERTHARINdirectorAward / grant3,52517,167Form 4
2026-05-20Nielsen JanedirectorAward / grant3,52519,293Form 4
2026-05-20McNamara Brian JamesdirectorAward / grant3,52510,548Form 4
2026-05-20Mesquita Jorge S.directorAward / grant3,52569,513Form 4
2026-05-20McKinstry NancydirectorAward / grant3,5256,634Form 4
2026-05-20TODMAN MICHAELdirectorAward / grant3,52523,406Form 4
2026-05-20Price Paula AdirectorAward / grant3,5259,662Form 4
2026-05-20't Hart CeesdirectorAward / grant3,52512,217Form 4
2026-04-30Stevens BrianofficerGift202,041Form 4
2026-04-30Stevens BrianofficerGift201Form 4
2026-04-01Lilak StephaniedirectorWithheld for tax3,21824,118Form 4
2026-04-01Kuhn VolkerofficerWithheld for tax9025,820Form 4
2026-02-11Van de Put DirkdirectorWithheld for tax61,7261,245,148Form 4
2026-02-11Zaramella LucadirectorWithheld for tax23,527362,218Form 4
2026-02-11Renaud MartinofficerWithheld for tax10,58584,756Form 4
2026-02-11Valle Gustavo CarlosofficerWithheld for tax10,11280,286Form 4
2026-02-11STEIN LAURAofficerWithheld for tax9,47484,631Form 4
2026-02-11LOZANO MARIANOofficerWithheld for tax4,55826,284Form 4
2026-02-11Lilak StephaniedirectorWithheld for tax1,37416,966Form 4
2026-02-11Iyer Deepak D.officerWithheld for tax57041,307Form 4
2026-02-11Van de Put DirkdirectorAward / grant488,220488,220Form 4
2026-02-11Iyer Deepak D.officerAward / grant14,04641,877Form 4
2026-02-11Iyer Deepak D.officerAward / grant14,44055,747Form 4
2026-02-11Iyer Deepak D.officerAward / grant86,62086,620Form 4
2026-02-11Kuhn VolkerofficerAward / grant20,78025,910Form 4
2026-02-11Kuhn VolkerofficerAward / grant124,680124,680Form 4
2026-02-11LOZANO MARIANOofficerAward / grant17,56530,842Form 4
2026-02-11LOZANO MARIANOofficerAward / grant11,81038,094Form 4
2026-02-11LOZANO MARIANOofficerAward / grant70,87070,870Form 4
2026-02-11Lilak StephaniedirectorAward / grant4,39718,340Form 4
2026-02-11Lilak StephaniedirectorAward / grant10,37027,336Form 4
2026-02-11Lilak StephaniedirectorAward / grant62,21062,210Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousesale2026-01-142026-01-07$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-03$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-10$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-09-122025-08-06$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-09-112025-08-14$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.