Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.99 · now $32.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MDLN has typically landed between $26.55 and $38.50 — a range of −19.5% to +16.7% from the issuance price $32.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
166 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-12-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MDLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.6 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $29.64–$35.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $26.55–$38.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 166 windows spanning 2025-12-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-01 | −25.8% | −25.8% | +1.3% |
| 2026-04-17 | −24.4% | −24.4% | +1.3% |
| 2026-05-05 | −24.0% | −26.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-02 | +30.1% | +0.0% | +30.1% |
| 2026-06-04 | +24.8% | −2.4% | +25.4% |
| 2026-06-03 | +24.0% | −2.5% | +25.3% |
166 overlapping windows · 2025-12-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $35.80 | $3.6M | −0.4% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,802,482 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,500,000 @ $35.80 | $53.7M | −6.1% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,902,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 590,284 @ $35.58 | $21.0M | −2.4% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,402,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 271,994 @ $35.33 | $9.6M | −1.1% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,992,766 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,710,907 @ $35.46 | $60.7M | −6.3% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,530,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | GIC Private Ltd | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 265,711 @ $36.48 | $9.7M | −1.0% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,264,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Sale | 61,966 @ $36.60 | $2.3M | −50.0% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Sale | 38,034 @ $37.05 | $1.4M | −61.4% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | CORCORAN JESSI L | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $34.15 | $171K | ownership Δ n/a | +18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,712,326 @ $36.54 | $720.2M | −18.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,537,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 19,712,326 @ $36.54 | $720.2M | −18.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,537,913 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,947,337 @ $36.54 | $655.8M | −98.7% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 228,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,904,646 @ $36.54 | $435.0M | −16.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,591,526 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,858,774 @ $36.54 | $360.2M | −99.9% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,185 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,858,774 @ $36.54 | $360.2M | −99.9% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,185 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,256,800 @ $36.54 | $82.5M | −18.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,250,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,256,800 @ $36.54 | $82.5M | −18.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,250,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,489,924 @ $36.54 | $54.4M | −99.9% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,539 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,489,924 @ $36.54 | $54.4M | −99.9% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,539 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,262,726 @ $36.54 | $46.1M | −16.2% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,519,062 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 753,528 @ $36.54 | $27.5M | −18.0% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,422,699 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Carlyle Mozart Coinvestment Holdings, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,105,840 @ $41.00 | $1.1B | −17.0% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 127,567,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Carlyle Group Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,105,840 @ $41.00 | $1.1B | −17.0% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 127,567,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | CP Circle ML Holdco GP, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,105,840 @ $41.00 | $1.1B | −17.0% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 127,567,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | TC Group Cayman Investment Holdings, L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,105,840 @ $41.00 | $1.1B | −17.0% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 127,567,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 16,479,083 @ $40.51 | $667.5M | −13.1% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 109,250,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 16,479,083 @ $40.51 | $667.5M | −13.1% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 109,250,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,639,754 @ $40.51 | $593.0M | −96.3% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 558,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,801,455 @ $40.51 | $397.0M | −11.4% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 75,931,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,241,723 @ $40.51 | $333.9M | −99.9% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 10,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,241,723 @ $40.51 | $333.9M | −99.9% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 10,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,886,636 @ $40.51 | $76.4M | −13.1% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 12,507,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,886,636 @ $40.51 | $76.4M | −13.1% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 12,507,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,245,544 @ $40.51 | $50.5M | −99.9% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 1,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,245,544 @ $40.51 | $50.5M | −99.9% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 1,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,060,095 @ $40.51 | $42.9M | −11.8% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 7,895,482 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 629,933 @ $40.51 | $25.5M | −13.1% of holding | +5.9% | −33.8% | 4,176,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
263 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Miller Stephen L | officer | Award / grant | 87,667 | 87,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Boyle James M | director | Award / grant | 764,252 | 764,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Miller Stephen L | officer | Award / grant | 87,667 | 87,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Miller Stephen L | officer | Award / grant | 87,667 | 87,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Boyle James M | director | Award / grant | 764,252 | 764,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Boyle James M | director | Award / grant | 764,252 | 764,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Boyle James M | director | Award / grant | 764,252 | 764,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Miller Stephen L | officer | Award / grant | 87,667 | 87,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mozart Holdco, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 500,000 | 233,520,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mozart Holdco, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 500,000 | 233,520,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Mozart Holdco, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 500,000 | 787,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 365,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 123,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Option exercise | 100,000 | 123,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Disposition | 100,000 | 365,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Disposition | 100,000 | 365,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Boyle James M | director | Withheld for tax | 2,370 | 29,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Drazin Michael B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,889 | 23,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Golwas Douglas P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,889 | 23,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Laabs Amanda H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,889 | 23,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Miller Stephen L | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,889 | 23,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Abrams William J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,308 | 16,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Liberman Alexander M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 872 | 11,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Shryock Christopher P | officer | Withheld for tax | 872 | 11,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | GALANTI RICHARD A | director | Award / grant | 5,387 | 16,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bluedorn Todd M | director | Award / grant | 5,387 | 15,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Sweet Thomas W | director | Award / grant | 5,387 | 5,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | HEALY PATRICK J | director | Other acquisition | 179,762 | 1,387,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 141,364 | 6,377,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,536,907 | 61,054,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,536,907 | 61,054,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Hellman & Friedman Capital Partners X (Parallel), L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 209,530 | 19,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BX Mozart ML-2 Holdco L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | BCP 8 Holdings Mozart Manager L.L.C. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 438,214 | 1,990,467 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.