Issued 2026-09-16 at $376.34 · now $376.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MDB has typically landed between $269.47 and $491.78 — a range of −28.4% to +30.7% from the issuance price $376.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,217 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($376.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MDB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $376.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $376.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $382.21 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $340.34–$424.08
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $269.47–$491.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,217 windows spanning 2017-10-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-25 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-26 | −45.0% | −46.4% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-19 | −44.7% | −44.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-03 | +70.6% | +0.0% | +70.6% |
| 2025-08-11 | +66.6% | +0.0% | +66.6% |
| 2023-05-04 | +63.8% | +0.0% | +63.8% |
2,217 overlapping windows · 2017-10-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+2.0%
n=9
Feb
44%
+1.8%
n=9
Mar
44%
−1.6%
n=9
Apr
56%
−0.6%
n=9
May
56%
+7.7%
n=9
Jun
89%
+11.3%
n=9
Jul
78%
+4.6%
n=9
Aug
89%
+14.0%
n=9
Sep
22%
−6.9%
n=9
Oct
50%
+2.9%
n=8
Nov
56%
+5.4%
n=9
Dec
67%
+5.6%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 2,174 @ $453.71 | $986K | −0.5% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 1,652 @ $450.28 | $744K | −0.4% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 992 @ $448.98 | $445K | −0.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 457,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 522 @ $451.22 | $236K | −0.1% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 455,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 460 @ $452.55 | $208K | −0.1% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 455,270 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 120 @ $456.36 | $55K | −0.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 80 @ $454.88 | $36K | −0.0% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 453,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 6,752 @ $469.81 | $3.2M | −0.7% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 966,201 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 3,248 @ $472.22 | $1.5M | −0.3% of holding | −15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 962,953 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 2,774 @ $333.42 | $925K | −0.6% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 458,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 1,363 @ $327.70 | $447K | −0.3% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,831 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 867 @ $325.48 | $282K | −0.2% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 463,194 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 835 @ $324.12 | $271K | −0.2% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 464,061 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 81 @ $328.30 | $27K | −0.0% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,750 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 80 @ $329.54 | $26K | −0.0% of holding | +36.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,670 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 2,480 @ $319.73 | $793K | −0.3% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 977,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 2,480 @ $316.52 | $785K | −0.3% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 980,473 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 2,120 @ $321.78 | $682K | −0.2% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 975,073 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $324.05 | $648K | −0.2% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 972,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 680 @ $320.65 | $218K | −0.1% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 977,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 120 @ $323.03 | $39K | −0.0% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 974,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 120 @ $317.82 | $38K | −0.0% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 980,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Cochran Hope F | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $350.00 | $350K | −3.3% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 1,130 @ $334.25 | $378K | −0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 982,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Cochran Hope F | director | Sale | 1,566 @ $344.05 | $539K | −5.8% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,444 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 1,142 @ $350.62 | $400K | −27.1% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 899 @ $349.59 | $314K | −17.6% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 650 @ $348.74 | $227K | −11.3% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,120 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 477 @ $351.51 | $168K | −15.5% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 309 @ $346.19 | $107K | −4.9% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 252 @ $353.85 | $89K | −10.1% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 223 @ $347.55 | $78K | −3.7% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 198 @ $345.42 | $68K | −3.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,302 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 134 @ $363.07 | $49K | −8.2% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 127 @ $354.84 | $45K | −5.6% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,125 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 113 @ $359.35 | $41K | −6.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,771 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 108 @ $357.91 | $39K | −5.4% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 105 @ $362.22 | $38K | −6.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 98 @ $352.51 | $35K | −3.8% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 85 @ $355.65 | $30K | −4.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 48 @ $356.65 | $17K | −2.4% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,992 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 29 @ $360.67 | $10K | −1.6% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 3 @ $363.87 | $1K | −0.2% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $348.92 | $2.1M | −1.3% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 464,896 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 772 @ $360.91 | $279K | −9.8% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 768 @ $355.60 | $273K | −8.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 665 @ $352.73 | $235K | −5.9% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 538 @ $353.75 | $190K | −5.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,984 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 530 @ $354.79 | $188K | −5.3% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 454 @ $359.99 | $163K | −5.5% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 382 @ $361.79 | $138K | −5.4% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 334 @ $356.63 | $119K | −3.8% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,352 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 301 @ $349.53 | $105K | −2.6% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 181 @ $362.63 | $66K | −2.7% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,519 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 37 @ $358.67 | $13K | −0.4% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,308 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 19 @ $363.69 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 12 @ $351.12 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Sale | 7 @ $357.43 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 7,775 @ $354.41 | $2.8M | −0.8% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 983,316 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Sale | 1,280 @ $353.00 | $452K | −0.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 991,091 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
81 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Gift | 10,913 | 66,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Gift | 10,913 | 12,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Withheld for tax | 7,082 | 77,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Desai Chirantan Jitendra | director | Withheld for tax | 3,913 | 72,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Withheld for tax | 3,035 | 158,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 150 | 2,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cochran Hope F | director | Award / grant | 767 | 30,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cochran Hope F | director | Award / grant | 199 | 30,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | DSOUZA FRANCISCO | director | Award / grant | 767 | 8,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | DSOUZA FRANCISCO | director | Award / grant | 184 | 8,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hazard Charles M Jr | director | Award / grant | 767 | 45,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hazard Charles M Jr | director | Award / grant | 198 | 45,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Killalea Peter Thomas | director | Award / grant | 767 | 63,060 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lewnes Ann | director | Award / grant | 767 | 3,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Lewnes Ann | director | Award / grant | 159 | 3,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MERRIMAN DWIGHT A | director | Award / grant | 767 | 984,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Agrawal Archana | director | Award / grant | 767 | 5,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | BOTHA ROELOF | director | Award / grant | 767 | 1,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Cochran Hope F | director | Option exercise | 3,916 | 29,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Cochran Hope F | director | Option exercise | 3,916 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Withheld for tax | 26,462 | 201,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pech Cedric | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,405 | 76,053 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Desai Chirantan Jitendra | director | Withheld for tax | 2,262 | 76,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cochran Hope F | director | Option exercise | 3,917 | 28,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pech Cedric | officer | Award / grant | 8,417 | 65,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pech Cedric | officer | Award / grant | 2,660 | 67,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pech Cedric | officer | Award / grant | 10,794 | 78,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Award / grant | 5,653 | 206,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Award / grant | 1,249 | 207,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Award / grant | 20,452 | 228,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Award / grant | 17,218 | 200,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Cochran Hope F | director | Option exercise | 3,917 | 3,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Desai Chirantan Jitendra | director | Award / grant | 34,832 | 78,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | BERRY MICHAEL J | director | Award / grant | 17,002 | 84,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Withheld for tax | 3,320 | 183,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Pech Cedric | officer | Withheld for tax | 346 | 56,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Bull Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 283 | 10,501 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-29 | Ittycheria Dev | director | Gift | 13,039 | 186,972 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Cochran Hope F | director | Option exercise | 3,917 | 27,225 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-17 | Cochran Hope F | director | Option exercise | 3,917 | 7,833 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.