MCRI · TickerCove

MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $123.43 · now $122.61 (2026-09-17, −0.7% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MCRI has typically landed between $110.09 and $139.20 — a range of −10.8% to +12.8% from the issuance price $123.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($123.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$122.61 · 75% of range

$88.28 low$133.87 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-17 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 9.9%

−10.8%worst (p90)+12.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MCRI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $123.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $122.61 (-0.7%)
typical $124.92 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $118.78–$131.06
90% range $110.09–$139.2

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,004 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-17. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−74.9%	−74.9%	+0.6%
2020-02-19	−72.6%	−74.9%	+0.9%
2020-02-20	−72.5%	−75.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-25	+134.3%	+0.0%	+134.3%
2009-03-24	+117.1%	+0.0%	+117.1%
2009-03-26	+116.4%	+0.0%	+117.8%

5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−3.1%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.5%

n=20

Mar

45%

−2.2%

n=20

Apr

50%

+7.9%

n=20

May

60%

+1.2%

n=20

Jun

45%

−1.5%

n=20

Jul

70%

+4.9%

n=20

Aug

45%

+0.2%

n=20

Sep

60%

+1.1%

n=20

Oct

55%

+2.4%

n=20

Nov

85%

+3.7%

n=20

Dec

70%

+4.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	5,000 @ $120.84	$604K	−0.8% of holding	+12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	616,556	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	2,000 @ $99.00	$198K	−0.4% of holding	−5.4%	+10.4%	536,304	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2026-03-10	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	1,000 @ $97.43	$97K	−0.2% of holding	+0.4%	+10.7%	538,304	Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Andrews Paul	director	Sale	3,100 @ $97.40	$302K	−5.6% of holding	+2.9%	+12.7%	51,800	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-09	Andrews Paul	director	Sale	3,000 @ $97.40	$292K	−5.2% of holding	+2.9%	+12.7%	54,900	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-15	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $92.24	$563K	−25.0% of holding	+2.9%	+27.9%	18,300	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $92.24	$563K	−100.0% of holding	+2.9%	+27.9%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $92.24	$563K	−50.0% of holding	+2.9%	+27.9%	6,100	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $92.24	$563K	−33.3% of holding	+2.9%	+27.9%	12,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $91.85	$560K	−20.0% of holding	+2.9%	+27.9%	24,400	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $91.85	$560K	−16.7% of holding	+2.9%	+27.9%	30,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $91.10	$556K	−14.3% of holding	+3.2%	+26.9%	36,600	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-14	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	3,416 @ $91.10	$311K	−7.4% of holding	+3.2%	+26.9%	42,700	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-13	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	2,684 @ $92.12	$247K	−5.5% of holding	+3.9%	+29.2%	46,116	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-08	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $94.13	$574K	−11.1% of holding	+4.5%	+23.5%	48,800	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-08	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	3,798 @ $94.13	$357K	−6.5% of holding	+4.5%	+23.5%	54,900	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	2,302 @ $94.11	$217K	−3.8% of holding	+3.6%	+25.1%	58,698	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-17	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	1,000 @ $100.63	$101K	−0.2% of holding	−11.4%	+19.1%	553,110	Form 4 · filed 23 days after the trade
2025-08-26	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	5,000 @ $103.77	$519K	−0.9% of holding	−4.0%	−14.4%	554,110	Form 4 · filed 136 days after the trade
2025-08-22	SULLIVAN CRAIG F	director	Sale	5,376 @ $105.00	$564K	−11.2% of holding	−3.3%	−15.4%	42,700	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-24	SULLIVAN CRAIG F	director	Sale	724 @ $106.98	$77K	−1.5% of holding	−2.1%	−23.0%	48,076	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-07-22	SULLIVAN CRAIG F	director	Sale	12,200 @ $105.55	$1.3M	−100.0% of holding	−6.7%	−24.2%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-22	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	2,000 @ $105.78	$212K	−0.4% of holding	−6.7%	−24.2%	560,110	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21	Koenig Edwin S.	officer	Sale	4,999 @ $103.94	$520K	−25.0% of holding	−5.9%	−23.1%	15,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21	Koenig Edwin S.	officer	Sale	3,333 @ $103.94	$346K	−18.2% of holding	−5.9%	−23.1%	15,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21	Koenig Edwin S.	officer	Sale	1,667 @ $103.94	$173K	−10.0% of holding	−5.9%	−23.1%	15,001	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Sale	6,100 @ $79.11	$483K	−10.0% of holding	+2.3%	−6.7%	54,900	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-03	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	1,000 @ $77.70	$78K	−0.2% of holding	+8.4%	+8.3%	528,436	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-11-26	SULLIVAN CRAIG F	director	Sale	6,100 @ $86.00	$525K	−12.5% of holding	−7.9%	−0.7%	42,700	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-10-15	FARAHI JOHN	director	Sale	2,000 @ $76.50	$153K	−0.4% of holding	+6.4%	+8.6%	557,404	Form 4 · filed 83 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

30 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-30	SULLIVAN CRAIG F	director	Award / grant	6,100	42,700	Form 4
2026-06-30	Andrews Paul	director	Award / grant	6,100	57,900	Form 4
2026-06-30	Taitz Hope S	director	Award / grant	6,100	6,100	Form 4
2026-06-30	Koenig Edwin S.	officer	Award / grant	5,000	20,001	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Withheld for tax	114,748	621,556	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,668	669,638	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,666	736,304	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,666	602,970	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,666	466,666	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,666	600,000	Form 4
2026-04-28	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,668	533,332	Form 4
2026-04-23	FARAHI BOB	director	Option exercise	66,667	248,353	Form 4
2026-04-23	FARAHI BOB	director	Withheld for tax	51,175	197,178	Form 4
2026-04-23	FARAHI BOB	director	Option exercise	33,334	133,333	Form 4
2026-04-23	FARAHI BOB	director	Option exercise	33,333	100,000	Form 4
2025-12-31	FARAHI JOHN	director	Award / grant	66,666	666,666	Form 4
2025-12-31	FARAHI BOB	director	Award / grant	33,333	166,667	Form 4
2025-09-29	FARAHI JOHN	director	Gift	13,806	2,521,415	Form 4
2025-09-29	FARAHI JOHN	director	Gift	13,806	539,304	Form 4
2025-07-21	FARAHI JOHN	director	Withheld for tax	32,992	562,110	Form 4
2025-07-21	FARAHI JOHN	director	Option exercise	66,666	595,102	Form 4
2025-07-21	FARAHI JOHN	director	Award / grant	66,666	600,000	Form 4
2025-06-30	SULLIVAN CRAIG F	director	Award / grant	6,100	48,800	Form 4
2025-06-30	LANDAU YVETTE	director	Award / grant	6,100	61,000	Form 4
2025-06-30	Koenig Edwin S.	officer	Award / grant	5,000	25,000	Form 4
2024-12-31	FARAHI JOHN	director	Award / grant	66,666	666,666	Form 4
2024-12-31	FARAHI BOB	director	Award / grant	33,334	133,334	Form 4
2024-12-31	FARAHI BOB	director	Other acquisition	15,000	181,686	Form 4
2024-10-23	FARAHI JOHN	director	Gift	27,968	529,436	Form 4
2024-10-23	FARAHI JOHN	director	Gift	27,968	2,507,609	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i