Issued 2026-09-16 at $465.30 · now $465.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MCO has typically landed between $410.52 and $519.88 — a range of −11.8% to +11.7% from the issuance price $465.30.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($465.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $465.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $465.3 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $469.42 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $448.07–$490.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $410.52–$519.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +2.4% |
| 2008-09-25 | −43.1% | −43.1% | +0.3% |
| 2008-09-11 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-20 | +47.1% | +0.0% | +52.5% |
| 2009-03-18 | +45.6% | −4.6% | +45.6% |
| 2020-03-23 | +45.3% | +0.0% | +46.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$82.4B
market cap
$15.76
EPS (TTM)
29.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$7.7B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr31.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr60.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.81
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$180.98
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$258.18
- Analyst target · range $500.00–$610.00$535.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$465.30
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
72%
+3.4%
n=18
Feb
58%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.7%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.2%
n=19
May
68%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
84%
+5.0%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.0%
n=19
Sep
26%
−3.1%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
39%
−0.5%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $501.89 | $586K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $501.89 | $151K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 51,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $484.30 | $565K | −2.2% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $484.30 | $145K | −0.6% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $455.49 | $532K | −2.2% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $455.49 | $137K | −0.6% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,264 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 157 @ $455.49 | $72K | −7.9% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,828 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $453.67 | $529K | −2.2% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,564 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $453.67 | $136K | −0.6% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,564 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 158 @ $453.67 | $72K | −7.4% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,985 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $466.39 | $544K | −1.5% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,189 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $466.39 | $140K | −0.4% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,189 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 158 @ $466.39 | $74K | −6.9% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,143 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 592 @ $437.77 | $259K | −0.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 575 @ $437.77 | $252K | −0.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 300 @ $437.77 | $131K | −0.4% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 124 @ $437.77 | $54K | −5.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 34 @ $437.77 | $15K | −1.4% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,425 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 4,250 @ $473.72 | $2.0M | −32.7% of holding | −2.4% | −8.0% | 8,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Phillips Jason D | officer | Sale | 333 @ $472.61 | $157K | −13.7% of holding | −2.4% | −8.0% | 2,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Heuland Noemie Clemence | officer | Sale | 100 @ $465.87 | $47K | −2.4% of holding | −2.4% | −8.0% | 4,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 5,213 @ $456.71 | $2.4M | −6.4% of holding | −2.1% | −5.8% | 75,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 375 @ $456.71 | $171K | −13.2% of holding | −2.1% | −5.8% | 2,459 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 2,139 @ $474.19 | $1.0M | −17.9% of holding | −3.4% | −5.8% | 9,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 1,188 @ $473.94 | $563K | −10.8% of holding | −3.4% | −5.8% | 9,787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 575 @ $498.90 | $287K | −0.9% of holding | +1.2% | −9.0% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 592 @ $516.15 | $306K | −1.0% of holding | −7.2% | −17.5% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 575 @ $502.52 | $289K | −0.9% of holding | −12.2% | −16.5% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 592 @ $508.94 | $301K | −1.0% of holding | −6.5% | −9.3% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 575 @ $487.87 | $281K | −0.9% of holding | +6.2% | −16.3% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 592 @ $486.09 | $288K | −1.0% of holding | +4.3% | −19.1% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 1,167 @ $478.95 | $559K | −1.9% of holding | +1.4% | −15.3% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 546 @ $493.90 | $270K | −0.9% of holding | +0.5% | −10.7% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 26 @ $493.90 | $13K | −1.9% of holding | +0.5% | −10.7% | 1,334 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $481.09 | $200K | −0.7% of holding | +1.5% | −11.8% | 61,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 414 @ $477.97 | $198K | −0.7% of holding | −1.9% | −6.4% | 61,216 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $512.65 | $213K | −0.7% of holding | −5.9% | −15.0% | 61,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $503.32 | $209K | −0.7% of holding | −8.4% | −12.7% | 61,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $521.45 | $216K | −0.7% of holding | −4.2% | −24.6% | 61,618 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Tulenko Stephen T | officer | Sale | 300 @ $518.96 | $156K | −5.4% of holding | −6.3% | −18.9% | 5,258 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $510.19 | $212K | −0.7% of holding | −3.4% | −9.0% | 61,752 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Tulenko Stephen T | officer | Sale | 2,120 @ $511.18 | $1.1M | −27.6% of holding | −2.7% | −9.1% | 5,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Tulenko Stephen T | officer | Sale | 0 @ $511.87 | $250 | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −9.1% | 5,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 1,375 @ $509.35 | $701K | −14.4% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 8,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 1,188 @ $511.94 | $608K | −12.6% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 8,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 1,002 @ $512.35 | $513K | −10.9% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 8,209 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Heuland Noemie Clemence | officer | Sale | 783 @ $508.15 | $398K | −26.7% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 2,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 730 @ $509.63 | $372K | −34.5% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 1,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Steele Richard G | officer | Sale | 727 @ $508.02 | $369K | −34.4% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 1,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | West Michael L | officer | Sale | 139 @ $512.20 | $71K | −1.4% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 9,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Heuland Noemie Clemence | officer | Sale | 114 @ $508.84 | $58K | −5.1% of holding | −1.7% | −8.5% | 2,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $503.40 | $209K | −0.7% of holding | +1.6% | −3.7% | 61,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $497.10 | $206K | −0.7% of holding | +0.3% | −8.8% | 62,020 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $476.67 | $198K | −0.7% of holding | +0.8% | −11.0% | 62,154 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $474.35 | $197K | −0.7% of holding | −1.4% | −13.5% | 62,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $479.05 | $199K | −0.7% of holding | −4.0% | −13.4% | 62,422 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Sale | 415 @ $450.71 | $187K | −0.7% of holding | +0.3% | −16.0% | 62,556 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
243 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Minaya Jose | director | Award / grant | 3 | 1,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | FORLENZA VINCENT A | director | Award / grant | 1 | 490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | VAN SAUN BRUCE | director | Award / grant | 7 | 9,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Minaya Jose | director | Award / grant | 6 | 2,915 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Sawicki Lisa P | director | Award / grant | 1 | 530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Seidman Leslie | director | Award / grant | 2 | 12,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Esperdy Therese | director | Award / grant | 11 | 5,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | VAN SAUN BRUCE | director | Award / grant | 13 | 9,901 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | FORLENZA VINCENT A | director | Award / grant | 15 | 8,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Bermudez Jorge A. | director | Award / grant | 16 | 22,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Bermudez Jorge A. | director | Award / grant | 1 | 22,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Seidman Leslie | director | Award / grant | 14 | 12,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 52,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 52,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 572 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 51 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 53,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 52,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 1,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 53,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 52,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Minaya Jose | director | Award / grant | 88 | 1,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Kosmowski Christina | officer | Award / grant | 21,542 | 21,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 1,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 1,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Minaya Jose | director | Award / grant | 4 | 1,163 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | FORLENZA VINCENT A | director | Award / grant | 2 | 490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Sawicki Lisa P | director | Award / grant | 1 | 529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Seidman Leslie | director | Award / grant | 2 | 12,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Seidman Leslie | director | Award / grant | 16 | 12,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | VAN SAUN BRUCE | director | Award / grant | 15 | 9,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | FORLENZA VINCENT A | director | Award / grant | 17 | 8,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | VAN SAUN BRUCE | director | Award / grant | 7 | 9,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Esperdy Therese | director | Award / grant | 12 | 5,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bermudez Jorge A. | director | Award / grant | 1 | 22,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bermudez Jorge A. | director | Award / grant | 19 | 22,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Minaya Jose | director | Award / grant | 7 | 2,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 575 | 53,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Fauber Robert | director | Option exercise | 592 | 53,156 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-29 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.