MCKMcKesson CorporationHealthcare · Medical - Distributionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $887.29 · now $887.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MCK has typically landed between $820.50 and $992.39 — a range of −7.5% to +11.8% from the issuance price $887.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($887.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MCK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $887.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$820.5worst · -7.5%$992.39best · +11.8%
  • now $887.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $913.67 (+3.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $876.92–$950.43
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $820.5–$992.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-30−33.8%−33.8%+0.0%
2008-09-26−33.3%−33.3%+0.0%
2008-09-11−32.6%−32.6%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+29.8%+0.0%+35.2%
2024-10-30+25.9%+0.0%+25.9%
2009-07-10+25.7%+0.0%+25.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$98.5B
market cap
$38.47
EPS (TTM)
21.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$403.4B
'21'26
Net income$4.8B
'21'26
Free cash flow$5.7B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr1.2%
'21'26
ROE · by yr-219.2%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr-3.97
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $887.29$846.49$1,260
  • DCF (intrinsic)$1,231
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$1,056
  • Analyst target · range $875.00–$1,085$1,010
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$887.29

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
83%
+3.6%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Mar
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+1.2%
n=19
May
84%
+5.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
+1.5%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.2%
n=18
Nov
78%
+6.0%
n=18
Dec
39%
−0.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$995$6562026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $99K — Rutledge Napoleon B JR2026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $269K — Lerman Bradley E2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $6.7M — TYLER BRIAN S.2026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $6.6M — TYLER BRIAN S.2026-06-09: 1 insider sale, $3.8M — TYLER BRIAN S.2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $102K — Rutledge Napoleon B JR2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $514K — Rodgers Thomas L2026-06-01: 2 insider sales, $1.4M — Smith LeAnn B, Rodgers Thomas L2026-05-26: 2 insider sales, $4.5M — Lau Michele, Rodgers Thomas L2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Lau Michele2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $328K — Martinez Maria2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $180K — Smith LeAnn B2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $283K — Lau Michele2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $313K — Rutledge Napoleon B JR2026-01-05: 1 insider sale, $225K — Rodgers Thomas L2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $283K — Rutledge Napoleon B JR2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $8.4M — TYLER BRIAN S.2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $8.1M — TYLER BRIAN S.2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $16.7M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $283K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $225K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $2.7M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $4.5M2026-06: 6 open-market sales, $12.4M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $6.7M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $269K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $99K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Rutledge Napoleon B JR — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lerman Bradley E — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TYLER BRIAN S. — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TYLER BRIAN S. — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TYLER BRIAN S. — Sale on 2026-06-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Rutledge Napoleon B JR — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rodgers Thomas L — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Smith LeAnn B — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rodgers Thomas L — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lau Michele — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rodgers Thomas L — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lau Michele — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Martinez Maria — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Smith LeAnn B — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lau Michele — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Rutledge Napoleon B JR — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rodgers Thomas L — Sale on 2026-01-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rutledge Napoleon B JR — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TYLER BRIAN S. — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TYLER BRIAN S. — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale111 @ $891.45$99K−17.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open521Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Lerman Bradley EdirectorSale301 @ $892.33$269K−100.0% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-07TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale8,463 @ $793.56$6.7M−58.8% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open5,919Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-17TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale8,463 @ $775.13$6.6M−37.0% of holding+6.2%not yet — horizon still open14,382Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale4,929 @ $763.00$3.8M−17.7% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open22,845Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale133 @ $764.00$102K−17.4% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open632Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-02Rodgers Thomas LofficerSale699 @ $735.27$514K−23.6% of holding+8.4%not yet — horizon still open2,268Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Smith LeAnn BofficerSale1,810 @ $735.50$1.3M−27.4% of holding+6.0%not yet — horizon still open4,798Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Rodgers Thomas LofficerSale123 @ $735.50$90K−4.0% of holding+6.0%not yet — horizon still open2,967Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Lau MicheleofficerSale3,550 @ $761.09$2.7M−52.2% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open3,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26Rodgers Thomas LofficerSale2,388 @ $761.09$1.8M−43.6% of holding+3.3%not yet — horizon still open3,090Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Lau MicheleofficerSale2,725 @ $990.00$2.7M−45.6% of holding−7.7%−23.0%3,247Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-19Martinez MariadirectorSale349 @ $939.87$328K−53.7% of holding−0.4%−22.3%301Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17Smith LeAnn BofficerSale190 @ $945.00$180K−6.0% of holding+0.5%−21.0%2,989Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-11Lau MicheleofficerSale303 @ $933.39$283K−4.8% of holding+3.1%−23.0%5,972Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-06Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale328 @ $955.00$313K−100.0% of holding−0.1%−19.6%0Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-05Rodgers Thomas LofficerSale276 @ $816.18$225K−10.8% of holding−0.1%−9.5%2,268Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale329 @ $861.63$283K−50.1% of holding−8.4%−24.3%328Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-22TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale11,930 @ $705.63$8.4M−74.8% of holding+4.6%+32.0%4,012Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-15TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale11,930 @ $677.76$8.1M−42.8% of holding+0.6%+34.2%15,942Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale329 @ $663.67$218K−33.4% of holding+3.6%+34.7%657Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-11TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale19,371 @ $708.09$13.7M−41.0% of holding−7.2%+3.3%27,872Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale19,370 @ $705.93$13.7M−27.4% of holding−2.5%−1.4%51,243Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30Rodgers Thomas LofficerSale2,891 @ $712.18$2.1M−53.2% of holding−3.9%+6.1%2,544Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-28Vitalone Britt J.directorSale1,878 @ $717.91$1.3M−11.8% of holding−2.9%+9.6%14,028Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28Rodgers Thomas LofficerSale510 @ $717.91$366K−8.6% of holding−2.9%+9.6%5,435Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28Smith LeAnn BofficerSale341 @ $717.91$245K−10.9% of holding−2.9%+9.6%2,800Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale95 @ $717.91$68K−8.8% of holding−2.9%+9.6%986Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale986 @ $714.30$704K−47.7% of holding−3.5%+7.3%1,081Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-23Vitalone Britt J.directorSale732 @ $715.24$524K−4.7% of holding−4.7%+6.7%14,922Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-23Smith LeAnn BofficerSale161 @ $715.24$115K−5.3% of holding−4.7%+6.7%2,871Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-23Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale63 @ $715.24$45K−3.0% of holding−4.7%+6.7%2,067Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22Vitalone Britt J.directorSale6,336 @ $717.30$4.5M−30.0% of holding−2.8%+7.2%14,760Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-22Smith LeAnn BofficerSale1,248 @ $717.30$895K−32.3% of holding−2.8%+7.2%2,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorSale543 @ $726.51$394K−21.6% of holding+0.0%+5.4%1,972Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale8,962 @ $634.24$5.7M−17.3% of holding+18.0%−6.3%42,741Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale8,961 @ $624.00$5.6M−14.8% of holding+10.8%−1.7%51,703Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-25Lau MicheleofficerSale312 @ $605.00$189K−10.0% of holding+9.9%−0.5%2,808Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-21TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale8,961 @ $597.99$5.4M−12.9% of holding+14.7%+7.4%60,664Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-14TYLER BRIAN S.directorSale8,961 @ $600.66$5.4M−11.4% of holding+19.5%+7.1%69,625Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-12Smith LeAnn BofficerSale188 @ $609.59$115K−15.2% of holding+16.2%+6.0%1,051Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02Smith LeAnn BofficerSale579 @ $572.79$332K−40.1% of holding+3.6%+21.4%864Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09Smith LeAnn BofficerSale579 @ $602.81$349K−28.6% of holding+2.0%+23.2%1,443Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

198 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Srinivasan Ramesh (NMN)officerAward / grant368368Form 4
2026-07-22Wilson-Thompson KathleendirectorAward / grant277578Form 4
2026-07-22Caruso Dominic JdirectorAward / grant277927Form 4
2026-07-22Martinez MariadirectorAward / grant277578Form 4
2026-07-22Gerberding Julie L.directorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-07-22Lerman Bradley EdirectorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-07-22OZAN KEVIN MdirectorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-07-22Doughtie Lynne MdirectorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-07-22Dunbar Webster RoydirectorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-07-22Hinton James H.directorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-07-22Dunsire DeborahdirectorAward / grant277277Form 4
2026-05-29Cheung Kenny KofficerAward / grant8,0828,082Form 4
2026-05-29Cheung Kenny KofficerAward / grant3,0193,019Form 4
2026-05-23TYLER BRIAN S.directorWithheld for tax1,83127,774Form 4
2026-05-23Vitalone Britt J.directorWithheld for tax58121,953Form 4
2026-05-23Smith LeAnn BofficerWithheld for tax2686,608Form 4
2026-05-23Rodgers Thomas LofficerWithheld for tax2345,478Form 4
2026-05-23Fraga FranciscodirectorWithheld for tax546,210Form 4
2026-05-23Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorWithheld for tax41765Form 4
2026-05-23Rodgers Thomas LofficerOption exercise5940Form 4
2026-05-23Smith LeAnn BofficerOption exercise6796,876Form 4
2026-05-23Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorOption exercise136806Form 4
2026-05-23Smith LeAnn BofficerOption exercise6790Form 4
2026-05-23Vitalone Britt J.directorOption exercise1,47622,534Form 4
2026-05-23Fraga FranciscodirectorOption exercise1360Form 4
2026-05-23Vitalone Britt J.directorOption exercise1,4760Form 4
2026-05-23TYLER BRIAN S.directorOption exercise4,57929,605Form 4
2026-05-23Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorOption exercise1360Form 4
2026-05-23Rodgers Thomas LofficerOption exercise5945,712Form 4
2026-05-23TYLER BRIAN S.directorOption exercise4,5790Form 4
2026-05-23Fraga FranciscodirectorOption exercise1366,264Form 4
2026-05-21TYLER BRIAN S.directorWithheld for tax1,31925,026Form 4
2026-05-21Vitalone Britt J.directorWithheld for tax44721,058Form 4
2026-05-21Lau MicheleofficerWithheld for tax2856,797Form 4
2026-05-21Smith LeAnn BofficerWithheld for tax2096,197Form 4
2026-05-21Fraga FranciscodirectorWithheld for tax1916,128Form 4
2026-05-21Rodgers Thomas LofficerWithheld for tax1575,118Form 4
2026-05-21Rutledge Napoleon B JRdirectorWithheld for tax27670Form 4
2026-05-21Lau MicheleofficerOption exercise7247,082Form 4
2026-05-21Fraga FranciscodirectorOption exercise4836,319Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2026-07-152026-06-15$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousepurchase2026-07-122026-07-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K
Elizabeth FletcherHousesale2026-05-012026-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-03-022026-02-04$15–50K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-02-042026-01-05$15–50K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2026-02-042026-01-05$15–50K
Jared MoskowitzHousepurchase2026-01-162025-12-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.