Issued 2026-08-13 at $77.69 · now $77.69 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, MCHP has typically landed between $64.48 and $93.42 — a range of −17.0% to +20.2% from the issuance price $77.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($77.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MCHP has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $77.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $77.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76.95 (-1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $71–$82.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $64.48–$93.42
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −49.3% | −49.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −45.6% | −47.7% | +2.7% |
| 2020-02-20 | −44.8% | −48.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-16 | +61.3% | +0.0% | +64.2% |
| 2025-04-11 | +61.0% | −2.0% | +61.0% |
| 2025-04-17 | +57.1% | +0.0% | +61.6% |
4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$11.48
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$9.06
- Analyst target · range $88.00–$135.00$112.00
- Current price · last close 2026-08-13$77.69
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-19 | CHAPMAN MATTHEW W | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 3,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Cassidy Richard B. II | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 3,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Barker Ellen | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 3,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Rapp Karen Marie | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 3,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | PENG VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 3,090 | 3,090 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Barker Ellen | director | Option exercise | 2,491 | 3,797 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | CHAPMAN MATTHEW W | director | Option exercise | 2,491 | 40,665 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Rapp Karen Marie | director | Option exercise | 2,491 | 11,137 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | PENG VICTOR | director | Option exercise | 2,010 | 2,326 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Cassidy Richard B. II | director | Option exercise | 1,258 | 1,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Barker Ellen | director | Option exercise | 2,491 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Rapp Karen Marie | director | Option exercise | 2,491 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Cassidy Richard B. II | director | Option exercise | 1,258 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | CHAPMAN MATTHEW W | director | Option exercise | 2,491 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | PENG VICTOR | director | Option exercise | 2,010 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sanghi Steve | director | Option exercise | 5,346 | 10,169,611 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sanghi Steve | director | Option exercise | 5,338 | 10,166,473 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sanghi Steve | director | Withheld for tax | 2,211 | 10,167,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Sanghi Steve | director | Withheld for tax | 2,208 | 10,164,265 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Option exercise | 1,610 | 36,840 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Option exercise | 1,606 | 35,919 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Option exercise | 1,456 | 152,003 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Option exercise | 1,452 | 150,945 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Option exercise | 1,354 | 37,947 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Option exercise | 1,222 | 153,336 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bunker Mathew B | officer | Option exercise | 871 | 29,229 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bunker Mathew B | officer | Option exercise | 870 | 29,856 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bunker Mathew B | officer | Option exercise | 868 | 28,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Option exercise | 776 | 36,926 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Option exercise | 702 | 152,306 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 690 | 36,150 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 689 | 35,230 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Krawczyk Joseph R II | officer | Option exercise | 678 | 15,947 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Krawczyk Joseph R II | officer | Option exercise | 623 | 16,472 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 581 | 37,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Withheld for tax | 399 | 151,604 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Withheld for tax | 398 | 150,547 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Krawczyk Joseph R II | officer | Option exercise | 338 | 15,994 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simoncic Richard J | officer | Withheld for tax | 335 | 153,001 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Bjornholt James Eric | officer | Withheld for tax | 333 | 36,593 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-07 | $15–50K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-03-12 | 2025-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.