MCHPMicrochip Technology IncorporatedTechnology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $78.69 · now $78.69 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MCHP has typically landed between $65.31 and $94.62 — a range of −17.0% to +20.2% from the issuance price $78.69.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($78.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MCHP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $78.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$65.31worst · -17.0%$94.62best · +20.2%
  • now $78.69 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $77.9 (-1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $71.97–$83.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.31–$94.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−49.3%−49.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−45.6%−47.7%+2.7%
2020-02-20−44.8%−48.4%+0.0%
3 best
2025-04-16+61.3%+0.0%+64.2%
2025-04-11+61.0%−2.0%+61.0%
2025-04-17+57.1%+0.0%+61.6%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$42.8B
market cap
$0.26
EPS (TTM)
297.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$4.7B
'21'26
Net income$202M
'21'26
Free cash flow$871M
'21'26
Net margin · by yr4.3%
'21'26
ROE · by yr3.1%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr0.86
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $78.69$-1.01$145.08
  • DCF (intrinsic)$11.48
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$9.06
  • Analyst target · range $88.00–$135.00$112.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$78.69

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Mar
74%
+0.0%
n=19
Apr
53%
+4.2%
n=19
May
74%
+3.4%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Aug
37%
−0.0%
n=19
Sep
37%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
44%
−1.9%
n=18
Nov
67%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$103$482026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $310K — Bjornholt James Eric2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $67K — Bjornholt James Eric2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $488K — Simoncic Richard J2026-05-28: 1 insider sale, $293K — CHAPMAN MATTHEW W2026-05-22: 3 insider sales, $800K — Simoncic Richard J, Bjornholt James Eric …2026-05-15: 2 insider sales, $963K — CHAPMAN MATTHEW W, Simoncic Richard J2026-05-13: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Bunker Mathew B, Simoncic Richard J2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $7.2M — Sanghi Steve2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — Sanghi Steve2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $36.9M — Sanghi Steve2026-02-24: 2 insider sales, $430K — Bjornholt James Eric …2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $216K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $9.4M2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $9.4M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $40.0M2026-05: 9 open-market sales, $11.2M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $488K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $377K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bjornholt James Eric — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bjornholt James Eric — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Simoncic Richard J — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHAPMAN MATTHEW W — Sale on 2026-05-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Simoncic Richard J — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bjornholt James Eric — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bjornholt James Eric — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CHAPMAN MATTHEW W — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 6 days after the tradedirector Simoncic Richard J — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bunker Mathew B — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Simoncic Richard J — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sanghi Steve — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Sanghi Steve — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sanghi Steve — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bjornholt James Eric — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bjornholt James Eric — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Bjornholt James EricdirectorSale4,112 @ $75.32$310K−12.6% of holding+1.5%not yet — horizon still open28,573Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Bjornholt James EricdirectorSale837 @ $80.26$67K−2.6% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open30,960Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-04Simoncic Richard JdirectorSale5,000 @ $97.52$488K−3.7% of holding−11.6%not yet — horizon still open130,508Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-28CHAPMAN MATTHEW WdirectorSale3,000 @ $97.52$293K−14.5% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open17,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22Simoncic Richard JdirectorSale5,000 @ $93.44$467K−3.6% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open135,508Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Bjornholt James EricdirectorSale3,333 @ $90.64$302K−10.3% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open28,907Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-22Bjornholt James EricdirectorSale334 @ $93.11$31K−1.2% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open28,573Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15CHAPMAN MATTHEW WdirectorSale10,000 @ $95.48$955K−32.6% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open20,665Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-05-15Simoncic Richard JdirectorSale83 @ $93.85$8K−0.1% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open140,261Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13Bunker Mathew BofficerSale10,571 @ $96.88$1.0M−42.0% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open14,587Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13Simoncic Richard JdirectorSale10,000 @ $97.55$975K−6.8% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open136,127Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Sanghi StevedirectorSale76,469 @ $93.58$7.2M−0.8% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open9,385,834Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-30Sanghi StevedirectorSale33,502 @ $92.37$3.1M−0.4% of holding−6.6%not yet — horizon still open9,462,303Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-23Sanghi StevedirectorSale416,581 @ $88.53$36.9M−4.2% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open9,495,805Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-24Bjornholt James EricdirectorSale3,530 @ $77.09$272K−10.5% of holding−10.0%−14.7%30,142Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-24Bjornholt James EricdirectorSale2,000 @ $78.93$158K−6.6% of holding−10.0%−14.7%28,142Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

284 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Duvenhage StephanusofficerAward / grant1237,210Form 4
2026-09-01Bunker Mathew BofficerAward / grant5320,243Form 4
2026-09-01Krawczyk Joseph R IIofficerAward / grant4116,599Form 4
2026-08-18Barker EllendirectorAward / grant2,5572,557Form 4
2026-08-18PENG VICTORdirectorAward / grant2,5572,557Form 4
2026-08-18Rapp Karen MariedirectorAward / grant2,5572,557Form 4
2026-08-18Cassidy Richard B. IIdirectorAward / grant2,5572,557Form 4
2026-08-18CHAPMAN MATTHEW WdirectorAward / grant2,5572,557Form 4
2026-08-18LITTLE MITCHELL RdirectorAward / grant2,5572,557Form 4
2026-08-17Sanghi StevedirectorOption exercise7,0209,417,427Form 4
2026-08-17Sanghi StevedirectorOption exercise6,1579,420,681Form 4
2026-08-17CHAPMAN MATTHEW WdirectorOption exercise3,09020,755Form 4
2026-08-17Barker EllendirectorOption exercise3,0906,887Form 4
2026-08-17Rapp Karen MariedirectorOption exercise3,09014,227Form 4
2026-08-17Cassidy Richard B. IIdirectorOption exercise3,0904,348Form 4
2026-08-17PENG VICTORdirectorOption exercise3,0905,416Form 4
2026-08-17Sanghi StevedirectorWithheld for tax2,9039,414,524Form 4
2026-08-17Sanghi StevedirectorWithheld for tax2,5469,418,135Form 4
2026-08-17Bjornholt James EricdirectorOption exercise2,22630,799Form 4
2026-08-17Simoncic Richard JdirectorOption exercise2,226132,734Form 4
2026-08-17Simoncic Richard JdirectorOption exercise1,952133,743Form 4
2026-08-17Bjornholt James EricdirectorOption exercise1,95231,797Form 4
2026-08-17Bjornholt James EricdirectorWithheld for tax95429,845Form 4
2026-08-17Simoncic Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax943131,791Form 4
2026-08-17Simoncic Richard JdirectorWithheld for tax827132,916Form 4
2026-08-17LITTLE MITCHELL RdirectorOption exercise4721,558Form 4
2026-08-17Bjornholt James EricdirectorOption exercise1,9520Form 4
2026-08-17PENG VICTORdirectorOption exercise3,0900Form 4
2026-08-17Barker EllendirectorOption exercise3,0900Form 4
2026-08-17Cassidy Richard B. IIdirectorOption exercise3,0900Form 4
2026-08-17Simoncic Richard JdirectorOption exercise1,9520Form 4
2026-08-17Sanghi StevedirectorOption exercise7,0200Form 4
2026-08-17Sanghi StevedirectorOption exercise6,1570Form 4
2026-08-17LITTLE MITCHELL RdirectorOption exercise4720Form 4
2026-08-17Simoncic Richard JdirectorOption exercise2,2260Form 4
2026-08-17Bjornholt James EricdirectorOption exercise2,2260Form 4
2026-08-17Rapp Karen MariedirectorOption exercise3,0900Form 4
2026-08-17CHAPMAN MATTHEW WdirectorOption exercise3,0900Form 4
2026-08-15Sanghi StevedirectorOption exercise28,8539,446,988Form 4
2026-08-15Sanghi StevedirectorWithheld for tax11,9319,435,057Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-07-022026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-06$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-03-122025-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.