Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.33 · now $15.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MCHB has typically landed between $11.99 and $19.48 — a range of −21.8% to +27.1% from the issuance price $15.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MCHB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.36 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.09–$16.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.99–$19.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-04-03 | −68.5% | −68.5% | +4.1% |
| 2023-04-13 | −67.0% | −69.6% | +0.0% |
| 2023-04-04 | −66.8% | −68.5% | +4.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-07-07 | +80.2% | +0.0% | +80.2% |
| 2023-11-27 | +77.3% | +0.0% | +77.3% |
| 2023-07-06 | +73.9% | +0.0% | +74.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2005-01-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~22 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Downer Edward Michael | director | Sale | 2 @ $15.13 | $30 | −0.0% of holding | +10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,121,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
184 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Crowe Adrienne Y | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Wilcox Jon R | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Pellegrino Nancy D | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Russell Kenneth D | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Cochran Patricia | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Downer Douglas E | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Downer Edward Michael | director | Award / grant | 5,513 | 5,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Crowe Adrienne Y | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Downer Edward Michael | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 1,511,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Downer Edward Michael | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Downer Douglas E | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wilcox Jon R | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 13,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wilcox Jon R | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Crowe Adrienne Y | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 13,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Cochran Patricia | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 13,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Downer Douglas E | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 2,317,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Cochran Patricia | director | Option exercise | 3,301 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pierce Christopher D | officer | Award / grant | 7,626 | 38,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Shields Kristie S | officer | Award / grant | 4,207 | 22,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Shrader Glenn C | officer | Award / grant | 3,366 | 18,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pelayo Fernando | officer | Award / grant | 4,470 | 17,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kallingal Tony P | officer | Award / grant | 6,048 | 34,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pelayo Fernando | officer | Award / grant | 4,470 | 17,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Shields Kristie S | officer | Award / grant | 4,207 | 22,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Duda Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 7,626 | 39,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Givans Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 6,574 | 38,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Kallingal Tony P | officer | Award / grant | 6,048 | 34,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Pierce Christopher D | officer | Award / grant | 7,626 | 38,496 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Duda Nathan | officer | Award / grant | 7,626 | 39,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Givans Scott A. | officer | Award / grant | 6,574 | 38,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Shrader Glenn C | officer | Award / grant | 3,366 | 18,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Kallingal Tony P | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,887 | 28,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pierce Christopher D | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,887 | 30,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Duda Nathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,801 | 32,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Givans Scott A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,715 | 31,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Shields Kristie S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,400 | 15,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Shrader Glenn C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,228 | 12,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Shields Kristie S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,201 | 18,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pelayo Fernando | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,032 | 13,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Shrader Glenn C | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,029 | 14,827 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.