MCFTMasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Recreational Vehiclesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.15 · now $19.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MCFT has typically landed between $16.28 and $22.48 — a range of −15.0% to +17.4% from the issuance price $19.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,787 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MCFT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.28worst · -15.0%$22.48best · +17.4%
  • now $19.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.09 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.73–$20.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.28–$22.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,787 windows spanning 2015-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−68.9%−68.9%+0.0%
2020-03-04−66.3%−66.3%+0.0%
2020-03-05−66.0%−66.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+96.5%+0.0%+121.6%
2020-04-02+89.4%−5.5%+109.4%
2020-04-07+87.2%+0.0%+102.7%

2,787 overlapping windows · 2015-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+2.1%
n=11
Feb
82%
+5.3%
n=11
Mar
45%
−5.8%
n=11
Apr
45%
+3.8%
n=11
May
55%
+6.2%
n=11
Jun
45%
+3.2%
n=11
Jul
55%
+0.4%
n=11
Aug
42%
−3.5%
n=12
Sep
33%
−2.2%
n=12
Oct
55%
+1.9%
n=11
Nov
73%
+5.7%
n=11
Dec
55%
−1.0%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$27$172026-09-15: 3 insider purchases, $124K — Lambert Roch, Nelson Bradley M. …2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $623K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $706K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $452K — Forager Fund, L.P.2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $289K — Forager Fund, L.P.2025-12-22: 1 insider purchase, $492K — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC2025-12-19: 1 insider purchase, $1.5M — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC2025-12-18: 1 insider purchase, $654K — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $16K — Forager Fund, L.P.2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Forager Fund, L.P.2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $922K — Forager Fund, L.P.2025-11: 3 open-market sales, $2.1M2025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $2.6M2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-09: 3 open-market purchases, $124K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Lambert Roch — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nelson Bradley M. — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nelson Bradley M. — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed same daytenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed same daydirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-19, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed same daytenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Forager Fund, L.P. — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Lambert RochdirectorPurchase3,845 @ $19.51$75K+9.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open42,840Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Nelson Bradley M.directorPurchase2,400 @ $19.50$47K+3.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open80,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Nelson Bradley M.directorPurchase100 @ $19.45$2K+0.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open80,975Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale26,497 @ $23.50$623K−1.6% of holding−3.9%−2.3%1,611,277Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale30,131 @ $23.43$706K−1.8% of holding−9.5%−4.9%1,637,774Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-18Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale19,050 @ $23.72$452K−1.1% of holding−10.2%−5.9%1,667,905Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-17Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale12,163 @ $23.74$289K−0.7% of holding−13.7%−6.8%1,686,955Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-22Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $19.66$492K+0.7% of holding+9.9%+23.5%3,697,422Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-19Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase76,000 @ $19.79$1.5M+2.1% of holding+13.2%+18.3%3,672,422Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-18Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase33,807 @ $19.34$654K+0.9% of holding+11.7%+11.7%3,596,422Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-10Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale810 @ $20.33$16K−0.0% of holding−3.0%+18.8%1,699,118Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale58,066 @ $20.37$1.2M−3.3% of holding−10.6%+12.9%1,699,928Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-06Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerSale44,981 @ $20.50$922K−2.5% of holding−10.8%+18.9%1,757,994Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase32,378 @ $16.66$539K+1.8% of holding−6.3%+0.1%1,802,975Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-30Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase7,800 @ $16.24$127K+0.4% of holding−2.8%+5.0%1,770,597Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-29Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase9,822 @ $16.27$160K+0.6% of holding−5.3%+10.4%1,762,797Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-23Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase14,827 @ $16.32$242K+0.9% of holding−3.3%+8.5%1,752,975Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-22Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase8,644 @ $15.96$138K+0.5% of holding−6.1%+4.5%1,738,148Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase4,563 @ $15.99$73K+0.3% of holding−6.1%−1.4%1,729,504Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-17Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase11,172 @ $15.82$177K+0.7% of holding−0.1%+2.6%1,724,941Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-16Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase11,416 @ $15.41$176K+0.7% of holding+4.0%+8.4%1,713,769Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-15Forager Fund, L.P.tenPercentOwnerPurchase4,658 @ $15.09$70K+0.3% of holding+9.2%+15.3%1,702,353Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Nelson Bradley M.directorPurchase5,000 @ $16.72$84K+6.2% of holding+6.9%+21.3%85,451Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-30Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase55,000 @ $18.83$1.0M+1.6% of holding−6.3%−0.2%3,562,615Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-27Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase81,092 @ $18.40$1.5M+2.4% of holding−2.0%+3.2%3,507,615Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-26Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase53,853 @ $18.87$1.0M+1.6% of holding−3.8%−0.5%3,426,523Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14LEEMPUTTE PETER GdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Macgregor Callum C.directorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Deason JenniferdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Baumgarten JaclyndirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Battle W. PatrickdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Lewis Stephen EdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Mitchell-Thomas KamilahdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Rollins Timothy CurtisdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-14Lambert RochdirectorAward / grant2,8652,865Form 4
2026-09-05O'CONNELL MICHAELofficerOption exercise3,2502,370Form 4
2026-09-05O'CONNELL MICHAELofficerOption exercise3,25011,659Form 4
2026-09-05O'CONNELL MICHAELofficerWithheld for tax1,27810,381Form 4
2026-07-01Kent Walter ScottofficerOption exercise3,25422,534Form 4
2026-07-01Kent Walter ScottofficerOption exercise3,2546,513Form 4
2026-07-01Kent Walter ScottofficerWithheld for tax1,21521,319Form 4
2026-06-30Nelson Bradley M.directorOption exercise9,70486,023Form 4
2026-06-30Nelson Bradley M.directorOption exercise9,70419,409Form 4
2026-06-30Nelson Bradley M.directorWithheld for tax7,54878,475Form 4
2026-06-30Battle W. PatrickdirectorOption exercise4,05631,511Form 4
2026-06-30Battle W. PatrickdirectorOption exercise4,0560Form 4
2026-06-30Baumgarten JaclyndirectorOption exercise4,05627,969Form 4
2026-06-30Baumgarten JaclyndirectorOption exercise4,0560Form 4
2026-06-30Deason JenniferdirectorOption exercise4,05617,681Form 4
2026-06-30Deason JenniferdirectorOption exercise4,0560Form 4
2026-06-30LEEMPUTTE PETER GdirectorOption exercise4,05636,867Form 4
2026-06-30LEEMPUTTE PETER GdirectorOption exercise4,0560Form 4
2026-06-30Lambert RochdirectorOption exercise4,05638,995Form 4
2026-06-30Lambert RochdirectorOption exercise4,0560Form 4
2026-06-30Mitchell-Thomas KamilahdirectorOption exercise4,05615,313Form 4
2026-06-30Mitchell-Thomas KamilahdirectorOption exercise4,0560Form 4
2026-06-30O'CONNELL MICHAELofficerWithheld for tax2,6878,409Form 4
2026-06-30Kent Walter ScottofficerWithheld for tax2,53519,280Form 4
2026-06-30Kent Walter ScottofficerOption exercise1,63021,815Form 4
2026-06-30Kent Walter ScottofficerOption exercise1,6309,767Form 4
2026-06-30Christiansen ErikofficerWithheld for tax1,2246,864Form 4
2026-06-30O'CONNELL MICHAELofficerOption exercise1,1855,620Form 4
2026-06-30O'CONNELL MICHAELofficerOption exercise1,18511,096Form 4
2026-06-30Christiansen ErikofficerOption exercise9478,088Form 4
2026-06-30Christiansen ErikofficerOption exercise9473,160Form 4
2026-05-18Googe MatthewofficerAward / grant3,2503,250Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.