Issued 2026-09-16 at $248.56 · now $248.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MCD has typically landed between $229.95 and $267.97 — a range of −7.5% to +7.8% from the issuance price $248.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($248.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MCD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $248.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $248.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $248.97 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $240.84–$257.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $229.95–$267.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −36.1% | −36.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −36.1% | −36.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −31.6% | −31.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +36.0% | +0.0% | +36.0% |
| 2020-03-18 | +35.5% | −0.1% | +35.5% |
| 2020-03-17 | +21.6% | −7.1% | +24.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$188.1B
market cap
$12.13
EPS (TTM)
21.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$26.9B
'20'25
Net income$8.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$7.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr31.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-478.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-30.61
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$294.11
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$288.95
- Analyst target · range $300.00–$385.00$327.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$248.56
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
39%
+0.1%
n=18
Feb
63%
+0.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
74%
+3.0%
n=19
May
37%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
26%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
74%
+1.7%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.5%
n=18
Nov
94%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 5,252 @ $284.32 | $1.5M | −40.4% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,734 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | director | Sale | 2,763 @ $278.36 | $769K | −30.6% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,268 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 333 @ $280.11 | $93K | −4.1% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 333 @ $302.72 | $101K | −4.0% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,067 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 2,626 @ $307.00 | $806K | −23.8% of holding | −19.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,400 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 333 @ $313.47 | $104K | −3.8% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Baroni Dario | officer | Sale | 600 @ $323.77 | $194K | −36.1% of holding | −9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,063 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 2,626 @ $328.34 | $862K | −23.1% of holding | −6.3% | −35.4% | 8,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Sale | 4,600 @ $333.24 | $1.5M | −66.8% of holding | −3.5% | −30.0% | 2,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,601 @ $333.42 | $534K | −41.1% of holding | −3.5% | −30.0% | 2,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 333 @ $330.43 | $110K | −3.7% of holding | −3.5% | −30.0% | 8,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Kempczinski Christopher J | director | Sale | 26,276 @ $333.54 | $8.8M | −53.4% of holding | +1.8% | −31.9% | 22,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Kempczinski Christopher J | director | Sale | 26,277 @ $331.35 | $8.7M | −53.4% of holding | +0.7% | −31.4% | 22,900 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 4,692 @ $331.00 | $1.6M | −43.1% of holding | +0.7% | −31.4% | 6,200 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 2,626 @ $325.25 | $854K | −32.7% of holding | +3.7% | −26.6% | 5,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 2,626 @ $306.58 | $805K | −32.7% of holding | +5.8% | −21.7% | 5,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | director | Sale | 2,486 @ $320.00 | $796K | −28.4% of holding | −4.4% | −21.2% | 6,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 658 @ $315.00 | $207K | −9.6% of holding | −4.3% | −18.6% | 6,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Steijaert Manuel JM | officer | Sale | 6,567 @ $305.50 | $2.0M | −58.8% of holding | +0.1% | −20.4% | 4,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Borden Ian Frederick | officer | Sale | 17,134 @ $310.00 | $5.3M | −39.4% of holding | −3.6% | −22.7% | 26,353 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 3,195 @ $305.82 | $977K | −34.4% of holding | +2.0% | −17.3% | 6,088 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Steijaert Manuel JM | officer | Sale | 13,134 @ $300.42 | $3.9M | −74.0% of holding | +1.2% | −18.2% | 4,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $315.00 | $315K | −12.7% of holding | −9.5% | −1.3% | 6,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 4,692 @ $315.00 | $1.5M | −37.3% of holding | −7.2% | −2.3% | 7,882 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 24 @ $315.00 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | −7.2% | −2.3% | 7,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-19 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $310.00 | $310K | −91.0% of holding | −6.1% | −1.2% | 99 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-06 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | director | Sale | 2,487 @ $310.00 | $771K | −22.1% of holding | +0.5% | −1.3% | 8,754 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 976 @ $303.50 | $296K | −11.0% of holding | +1.9% | −6.1% | 7,882 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $299.49 | $281K | −9.2% of holding | +4.9% | −5.4% | 9,283 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-10 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $300.00 | $300K | −10.1% of holding | +0.6% | −6.1% | 8,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $288.52 | $271K | −8.4% of holding | −2.7% | −3.7% | 10,222 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $315.07 | $296K | −7.8% of holding | −13.9% | −15.0% | 11,161 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-20 | Steijaert Manuel JM | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $319.66 | $1.9M | −56.6% of holding | −10.1% | −15.7% | 4,606 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-23 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $318.50 | $299K | −7.2% of holding | −10.2% | −27.0% | 12,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-24 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $306.30 | $288K | −6.7% of holding | +10.9% | −15.9% | 13,039 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-27 | Boyd Tiffanie L. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $309.27 | $309K | −15.2% of holding | +4.4% | −9.7% | 5,564 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Steijaert Manuel JM | officer | Sale | 10,459 @ $308.71 | $3.2M | −69.4% of holding | +3.7% | −5.1% | 4,606 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Sale | 939 @ $305.00 | $286K | −6.3% of holding | +3.7% | −5.1% | 13,978 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $304.33 | $456K | −57.7% of holding | +4.9% | −4.0% | 1,099 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-21 | Gross Marion K. | director | Sale | 1,099 @ $304.60 | $335K | −41.3% of holding | +4.9% | −4.0% | 1,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $300.76 | $962K | −24.5% of holding | +10.0% | +0.2% | 9,858 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-13 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Sale | 9,200 @ $307.41 | $2.8M | −99.8% of holding | +5.6% | −5.4% | 19 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
258 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Elting Lauren B | officer | Withheld for tax | 304 | 1,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Elting Lauren B | officer | Option exercise | 48 | 1,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Elting Lauren B | officer | Option exercise | 48 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Elting Lauren B | officer | Option exercise | 990 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Elting Lauren B | officer | Option exercise | 990 | 1,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Dean Lloyd H | director | Award / grant | 134 | 16,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Hsu Michael D. | director | Award / grant | 111 | 2,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Taubert Jennifer L | director | Award / grant | 111 | 3,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,252 | 12,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,252 | 15,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,626 | 11,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,626 | 21,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Dean Lloyd H | director | Award / grant | 117 | 15,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Hsu Michael D. | director | Award / grant | 97 | 1,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Taubert Jennifer L | director | Award / grant | 97 | 3,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,626 | 11,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Option exercise | 2,626 | 23,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 6,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 4,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | director | Discretionary | 1,519 | 3,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kempczinski Christopher J | director | Option exercise | 26,276 | 49,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Kempczinski Christopher J | director | Withheld for tax | 9,183 | 34,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Borden Ian Frederick | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,368 | 30,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Erlinger Joseph M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,312 | 9,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | McDonald Gillian | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,022 | 6,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,938 | 2,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Banner Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,764 | 3,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Steijaert Manuel JM | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,639 | 6,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Ralls-Morrison Desiree | director | Withheld for tax | 1,383 | 9,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | McDonald Gillian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,103 | 7,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Baroni Dario | officer | Withheld for tax | 901 | 1,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Rice Brian S | director | Withheld for tax | 808 | 1,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Flatley Edith Morgan | director | Withheld for tax | 798 | 7,396 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyd Tiffanie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 399 | 8,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyd Tiffanie L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 304 | 8,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Baroni Dario | officer | Withheld for tax | 248 | 1,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Baroni Dario | officer | Withheld for tax | 196 | 1,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyd Tiffanie L. | officer | Option exercise | 70 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Boyd Tiffanie L. | officer | Award / grant | 22,064 | 22,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Elting Lauren B | officer | Award / grant | 2,407 | 2,407 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.