Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.33 · now $23.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBUU has typically landed between $19.25 and $27.19 — a range of −17.5% to +16.5% from the issuance price $23.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,154 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-01-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MBUU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.2 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.44–$24.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $19.25–$27.19
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-04 | −54.7% | −54.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −53.5% | −53.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-20 | +83.7% | +0.0% | +83.7% |
| 2020-04-21 | +79.6% | +0.0% | +83.6% |
| 2020-04-03 | +79.5% | +0.0% | +91.6% |
3,154 overlapping windows · 2014-01-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Menneto Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 5,296 | 82,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 745 | 85,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 727 | 61,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Black David Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 788 | 26,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Black David Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 306 | 26,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Black David Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 27,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Black David Scott | officer | Withheld for tax | 81 | 26,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 780 | 84,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 761 | 61,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 732 | 83,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 714 | 60,482 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Menneto Steven | director | Award / grant | 33,287 | 87,835 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Black David Scott | officer | Award / grant | 7,521 | 27,438 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | Black David Scott | officer | Award / grant | 3,929 | 19,917 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Menneto Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 965 | 54,548 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Beckman Bruce W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 302 | 16,779 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Cook Melanie K. | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 4,305 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 59,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Chhina Ivar S. | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 36,643 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 83,011 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | MURPHY PETER E | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 37,343 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Hooks Michael K. | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 68,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Buch James R. | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 36,643 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | TAYLOR NANCY M | director | Award / grant | 3,186 | 9,588 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 636 | 79,825 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 621 | 56,582 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | Menneto Steven | director | Withheld for tax | 10,474 | 55,513 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 652 | 79,189 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 636 | 55,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Cook Melanie K. | director | Award / grant | 1,119 | 1,119 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 659 | 78,537 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 642 | 55,325 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Lanigan Mark W. | director | Award / grant | 549 | 77,878 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-02 | Connolly Michael | director | Award / grant | 536 | 54,683 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.