Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.82 · now $7.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBLY has typically landed between $6.01 and $9.90 — a range of −23.2% to +26.5% from the issuance price $7.82.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
954 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-10-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MBLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.82 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.64 (-2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.88–$8.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.01–$9.9
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-07-16 | −48.4% | −48.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-07-18 | −45.9% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 2024-07-17 | −45.7% | −47.0% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-17 | +49.0% | +0.0% | +49.0% |
| 2024-10-25 | +46.0% | −2.0% | +46.0% |
| 2024-10-30 | +45.3% | +0.0% | +49.0% |
954 overlapping windows · 2022-10-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Yeboah-Amankwah Safroadu | director | Purchase | 11,841 @ $8.46 | $100K | +16.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,336 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Yeary Frank D | director | Purchase | 12,360 @ $7.98 | $99K | ownership Δ n/a | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,360 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | INTEL CORP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 57,500,000 @ $16.05 | $922.7M | −50.6% of holding | −18.2% | −40.2% | 56,231,985 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | INTEL CORP | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,231,985 @ $16.05 | $100.0M | −11.1% of holding | −18.2% | −40.2% | 50,000,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Ouriel Boaz | officer | Sale | 67,493 @ $16.09 | $1.1M | −38.5% of holding | −5.3% | −36.3% | 107,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
31 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Ohayon Yaacov | officer | Award / grant | 116,550 | 735,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Shalev-Shwartz Shai | officer | Award / grant | 1,064,962 | 8,113,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Nehushtan Nimrod | officer | Award / grant | 199,680 | 496,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Shashua Amnon | director | Award / grant | 1,618,743 | 22,142,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ouriel Boaz | officer | Award / grant | 266,240 | 485,243 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Shemesh Rojansky Moran | officer | Award / grant | 212,992 | 443,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shashua Amnon | director | Award / grant | 1,554,310 | 6,535,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shashua Amnon | director | Award / grant | 13,988,788 | 20,524,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shalev-Shwartz Shai | officer | Award / grant | 4,831,528 | 7,048,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shalev-Shwartz Shai | officer | Award / grant | 536,835 | 2,216,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shalev-Shwartz Shai | officer | Award / grant | 4,831,528 | 7,048,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shashua Amnon | director | Award / grant | 1,554,310 | 6,535,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shashua Amnon | director | Award / grant | 13,988,788 | 20,524,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Shalev-Shwartz Shai | officer | Award / grant | 536,835 | 2,216,520 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Yeary Frank D | director | Award / grant | 20,300 | 75,128 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | McCaskill Claire C. | director | Award / grant | 20,300 | 88,628 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Chao Elaine L. | director | Award / grant | 20,300 | 40,096 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Yeboah-Amankwah Safroadu | director | Award / grant | 12,180 | 72,495 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Desheh Eyal | director | Award / grant | 20,300 | 57,628 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | INTEL CORP | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 113,731,985 | 597,768,015 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | INTEL CORP | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 113,731,985 | 113,731,985 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-11 | INTEL CORP | tenPercentOwner | Conversion | 113,731,985 | 113,731,985 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Shalev-Shwartz Shai | officer | Award / grant | 592,803 | 1,679,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Shashua Amnon | director | Award / grant | 901,061 | 4,981,158 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Ouriel Boaz | officer | Award / grant | 111,150 | 219,003 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Shemesh Rojansky Moran | officer | Award / grant | 111,150 | 230,487 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Nehushtan Nimrod | officer | Award / grant | 111,150 | 296,322 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-10 | Yeboah-Amankwah Safroadu | director | Award / grant | 11,856 | 60,315 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Yeary Frank D | director | Award / grant | 12,619 | 54,828 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Chao Elaine L. | director | Award / grant | 12,619 | 19,796 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-05 | Desheh Eyal | director | Award / grant | 12,619 | 37,328 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.