Issued 2026-09-16 at $52.63 · now $52.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBIN has typically landed between $45.25 and $62.94 — a range of −14.0% to +19.6% from the issuance price $52.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,211 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($52.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MBIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $52.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $52.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $52.58 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $48.7–$56.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.25–$62.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,211 windows spanning 2017-10-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −36.2% | −36.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −34.3% | −34.3% | +2.5% |
| 2020-02-24 | −33.6% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-13 | +36.6% | −0.8% | +36.6% |
| 2020-05-06 | +35.2% | −0.3% | +35.2% |
| 2026-01-14 | +35.2% | −2.5% | +35.2% |
2,211 overlapping windows · 2017-10-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+6.6%
n=9
Feb
56%
+1.6%
n=9
Mar
56%
−0.9%
n=9
Apr
33%
−3.5%
n=9
May
67%
+2.7%
n=9
Jun
67%
+2.1%
n=9
Jul
56%
+3.8%
n=9
Aug
67%
+0.9%
n=9
Sep
22%
−1.7%
n=9
Oct
50%
+0.4%
n=8
Nov
100%
+9.2%
n=9
Dec
67%
+2.7%
n=9
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $55.20 | $497K | −1.2% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 727,013 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Kaercher Julia L. | director | Sale | 9,000 @ $55.20 | $497K | −1.2% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 727,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 8,334 @ $46.86 | $391K | −0.4% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,864,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $46.75 | $935K | −1.1% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,873,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 10,696 @ $46.75 | $500K | −1.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 736,013 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $44.05 | $661K | −0.8% of holding | +4.2% | +9.3% | 1,893,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 13,871 @ $20.25 | $281K | −82.4% of holding | +4.2% | +9.3% | 2,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 377 @ $20.20 | $8K | −2.2% of holding | +6.7% | +13.1% | 16,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,502 @ $20.20 | $30K | −8.0% of holding | −6.0% | +3.1% | 17,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 100 @ $20.20 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −9.0% | +2.7% | 18,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Schroeter Martin A | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $46.06 | $253K | −33.6% of holding | −5.0% | +6.8% | 10,881 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 4,455 @ $20.20 | $90K | −19.2% of holding | −5.0% | +6.8% | 18,808 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 14,610 @ $20.20 | $295K | −38.6% of holding | −4.2% | +9.8% | 23,263 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 7,149 @ $20.20 | $144K | −15.9% of holding | +0.6% | +15.2% | 37,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 2,034 @ $20.20 | $41K | −4.3% of holding | −0.7% | +14.5% | 45,022 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 6,929 @ $20.20 | $140K | −12.8% of holding | −0.9% | +14.4% | 47,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,383 @ $20.20 | $28K | −2.5% of holding | +0.5% | +20.5% | 53,985 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 2,404 @ $20.20 | $49K | −4.2% of holding | +1.1% | +19.5% | 55,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,380 @ $19.00 | $26K | −2.3% of holding | −4.1% | +27.5% | 57,772 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-11 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 5,336 @ $19.00 | $101K | −8.3% of holding | −4.5% | +27.6% | 59,152 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 7,541 @ $19.00 | $143K | −10.5% of holding | −3.3% | +33.0% | 64,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,129 @ $19.03 | $21K | −1.5% of holding | +3.9% | +39.0% | 72,029 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 3,159 @ $19.14 | $60K | −4.1% of holding | +0.6% | +34.9% | 73,158 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 3,109 @ $19.14 | $60K | −3.9% of holding | +0.7% | +31.2% | 76,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 500 @ $19.50 | $10K | −0.6% of holding | +0.3% | +33.6% | 79,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 2,159 @ $19.54 | $42K | −2.6% of holding | +2.8% | +27.1% | 79,926 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 81 @ $19.42 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +0.6% | +29.6% | 82,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 2,096 @ $19.30 | $40K | −2.5% of holding | +0.9% | +32.3% | 82,166 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,902 @ $19.35 | $37K | −2.2% of holding | +4.8% | +38.5% | 84,262 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 11,566 @ $19.20 | $222K | −11.8% of holding | +2.6% | +34.9% | 86,164 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,069 @ $19.80 | $21K | −1.1% of holding | +14.7% | +36.9% | 97,730 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 101 @ $19.83 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +14.4% | +30.6% | 98,799 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $19.85 | $20K | −1.0% of holding | +13.5% | +30.9% | 98,900 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Sale | 100 @ $20.05 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +11.3% | +33.2% | 99,900 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Purchase | 15,500 @ $31.64 | $490K | +12.6% of holding | +5.6% | +41.4% | 138,074 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Sievers Sean A. | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $24.87 | $75K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.6% | +28.8% | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Thomas Darin L. | officer | Purchase | 2,250 @ $33.20 | $75K | ownership Δ n/a | −7.4% | +21.5% | 2,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Thomas Darin L. | officer | Purchase | 1,103 @ $22.60 | $25K | ownership Δ n/a | −7.4% | +21.5% | 1,103 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Sievers Sean A. | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $29.75 | $74K | +43.8% of holding | +7.9% | +34.5% | 8,207 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Purchase | 11,765 @ $31.45 | $370K | +11.0% of holding | +2.5% | +21.0% | 118,339 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Purchase | 4,235 @ $31.86 | $135K | +3.6% of holding | +2.5% | +21.0% | 122,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Purchase | 3,305 @ $30.86 | $102K | +3.2% of holding | −3.2% | −20.0% | 106,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Purchase | 3,280 @ $30.37 | $100K | +3.3% of holding | +0.2% | −18.5% | 103,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Purchase | 1,920 @ $29.89 | $57K | +2.0% of holding | +0.2% | −18.5% | 99,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Dunlap Michael J. | director | Purchase | 3,429 @ $30.56 | $105K | +1.8% of holding | +0.3% | −18.5% | 199,340 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | Dunlap Michael J. | director | Purchase | 571 @ $30.80 | $18K | +0.3% of holding | +0.3% | −18.5% | 199,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Evans Scott A. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $43.10 | $1.1M | −47.5% of holding | −2.6% | −36.1% | 27,606 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Catchings Tamika | director | Award / grant | 328 | 8,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Shaffer Mark E. | director | Award / grant | 328 | 709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | O'Brien Patrick D. | director | Award / grant | 328 | 120,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Sellers Anne E. | director | Award / grant | 328 | 12,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | JUSTER ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 328 | 26,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Dinwiddie Thomas | director | Award / grant | 328 | 23,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Curless Michael S | director | Award / grant | 328 | 709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Gift | 3,700 | 120,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Gift | 10,700 | 124,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | JUSTER ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 381 | 26,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Dinwiddie Thomas | director | Award / grant | 381 | 22,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Curless Michael S | director | Award / grant | 381 | 381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catchings Tamika | director | Award / grant | 381 | 7,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Sellers Anne E. | director | Award / grant | 381 | 12,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | O'Brien Patrick D. | director | Award / grant | 381 | 119,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Shaffer Mark E. | director | Award / grant | 381 | 381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Gift | 16,000 | 1,848,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Langford Kevin T | officer | Gift | 650 | 36,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Sellers Anne E. | director | Award / grant | 377 | 12,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Dinwiddie Thomas | director | Award / grant | 377 | 22,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | JUSTER ANDREW | director | Award / grant | 377 | 25,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Shane David N. | director | Award / grant | 377 | 23,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Gilroy Sue Anne | director | Award / grant | 377 | 13,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | O'Brien Patrick D. | director | Award / grant | 377 | 119,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Catchings Tamika | director | Award / grant | 377 | 7,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Withheld for tax | 9,685 | 1,930,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Dunlap Michael J. | director | Withheld for tax | 7,766 | 212,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Dury Michael R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,972 | 135,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Oznick Terry A | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,685 | 31,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Langford Kevin T | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,483 | 37,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Koors Jerry F. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,140 | 45,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Evans Scott A. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,817 | 27,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Schroeter Martin A | officer | Withheld for tax | 663 | 16,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Sievers Sean A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 246 | 14,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Dunlap Michael J. | director | Award / grant | 20,051 | 219,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Langford Kevin T | officer | Award / grant | 4,628 | 39,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Petrie Michael F. | director | Award / grant | 20,565 | 1,939,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Koors Jerry F. | officer | Award / grant | 5,553 | 47,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Sievers Sean A. | officer | Award / grant | 6,427 | 14,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Oznick Terry A | officer | Award / grant | 4,216 | 34,059 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.