MBI · TickerCove

MBIMBIA Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.54 · now $4.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBI has typically landed between $3.52 and $5.76 — a range of −22.4% to +27.0% from the issuance price $4.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.54 · 1% of range

$4.5 low$8.07 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.4%

typical move · IQR 17.1%

−22.4%worst (p90)+27.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MBI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.54 (+0.0%)
typical $4.48 (-1.4%)
middle 50% $4.09–$4.86
90% range $3.52–$5.76

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-11	−57.1%	−57.1%	+2.3%
2008-10-21	−56.9%	−56.9%	+19.1%
2008-09-10	−54.9%	−54.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-07-30	+183.9%	+0.0%	+183.9%
2008-07-31	+173.4%	+0.0%	+173.4%
2008-07-28	+155.9%	+0.0%	+177.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

−1.0%

n=18

Feb

68%

+1.4%

n=19

Mar

53%

+3.9%

n=19

Apr

42%

−0.4%

n=19

May

26%

−2.6%

n=19

Jun

42%

−4.2%

n=19

Jul

68%

+7.4%

n=19

Aug

47%

+12.4%

n=19

Sep

26%

−6.8%

n=19

Oct

50%

+0.6%

n=18

Nov

61%

+4.6%

n=18

Dec

44%

+5.7%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-27	Shasta Theodore	director	Sale	6,382 @ $7.90	$50K	−11.3% of holding	−9.0%	−26.1%	50,146	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	DEWBREY DIANE L	director	Sale	4,975 @ $7.15	$36K	−4.5% of holding	+0.8%	−27.3%	105,017	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Shasta Theodore	director	Sale	8,361 @ $6.71	$56K	−12.9% of holding	+11.2%	−13.4%	56,528	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	Shasta Theodore	director	Sale	20,000 @ $6.15	$123K	−23.6% of holding	+18.0%	−10.3%	64,889	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11	VAUGHAN RICHARD C	director	Sale	25,086 @ $6.07	$152K	−22.4% of holding	+20.2%	−7.3%	86,874	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02	Shasta Theodore	director	Sale	9,570 @ $6.74	$65K	−13.4% of holding	−2.5%	−42.8%	61,794	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-30	Shasta Theodore	director	Sale	11,261 @ $6.13	$69K	−13.6% of holding	+11.8%	−36.2%	71,364	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-12	DEWBREY DIANE L	director	Award / grant	16,181	121,198	Form 4
2026-05-12	GILBERT STEVEN J	director	Award / grant	16,181	125,423	Form 4
2026-05-12	Innis-Thompson Janice L.	director	Award / grant	16,181	83,325	Form 4
2026-05-12	Shasta Theodore	director	Award / grant	16,181	66,327	Form 4
2026-05-12	VAUGHAN RICHARD C	director	Award / grant	16,181	103,055	Form 4
2026-03-04	Fallon William C	director	Withheld for tax	39,658	2,826,660	Form 4
2026-03-04	Bergonzi Adam T.	officer	Withheld for tax	13,280	943,262	Form 4
2026-03-04	Young Christopher H.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,668	651,544	Form 4
2026-03-04	Avitabile Daniel M.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,668	650,527	Form 4
2026-03-04	Schachinger Joseph R.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,400	248,057	Form 4
2026-03-03	Fallon William C	director	Award / grant	242,038	2,894,044	Form 4
2026-03-03	Bergonzi Adam T.	officer	Award / grant	115,385	965,640	Form 4
2026-03-03	Young Christopher H.	officer	Award / grant	80,769	666,273	Form 4
2026-03-03	Avitabile Daniel M.	officer	Award / grant	80,769	665,256	Form 4
2026-03-03	Schachinger Joseph R.	officer	Award / grant	50,000	253,257	Form 4
2026-03-03	Fallon William C	director	Withheld for tax	27,726	2,866,318	Form 4
2026-03-03	Bergonzi Adam T.	officer	Withheld for tax	9,098	956,542	Form 4
2026-03-03	Young Christopher H.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,061	660,212	Form 4
2026-03-03	Avitabile Daniel M.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,061	659,195	Form 4
2026-03-03	Schachinger Joseph R.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,800	250,457	Form 4
2025-12-31	Fallon William C	director	Award / grant	14,220	2,651,736	Form 4
2025-12-31	Bergonzi Adam T.	officer	Award / grant	6,771	850,255	Form 4
2025-12-31	Avitabile Daniel M.	officer	Award / grant	4,402	584,487	Form 4
2025-12-31	Young Christopher H.	officer	Award / grant	4,402	585,504	Form 4
2025-05-13	DEWBREY DIANE L	director	Award / grant	23,095	109,992	Form 4
2025-05-13	GILBERT STEVEN J	director	Award / grant	23,095	109,242	Form 4
2025-05-13	Innis-Thompson Janice L.	director	Award / grant	23,095	67,144	Form 4
2025-05-13	VAUGHAN RICHARD C	director	Award / grant	23,095	111,960	Form 4
2025-05-13	Shasta Theodore	director	Award / grant	23,095	84,889	Form 4
2025-03-04	Fallon William C	director	Award / grant	286,885	2,637,516	Form 4
2025-03-04	Bergonzi Adam T.	officer	Award / grant	136,612	843,484	Form 4
2025-03-04	Avitabile Daniel M.	officer	Award / grant	95,628	580,085	Form 4
2025-03-04	Young Christopher H.	officer	Award / grant	95,628	581,102	Form 4
2025-03-04	Schachinger Joseph R.	officer	Award / grant	45,537	203,257	Form 4
2025-03-04	Fallon William C	director	Withheld for tax	39,658	2,350,631	Form 4
2025-03-04	Bergonzi Adam T.	officer	Withheld for tax	16,997	706,872	Form 4
2025-03-04	Young Christopher H.	officer	Withheld for tax	12,275	485,474	Form 4
2025-03-04	Avitabile Daniel M.	officer	Withheld for tax	12,275	484,457	Form 4
2025-03-04	Schachinger Joseph R.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,400	157,720	Form 4
2025-03-03	Fallon William C	director	Withheld for tax	556,019	2,390,289	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i