MBCMasterBrand, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.64 · now $6.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBC has typically landed between $5.34 and $8.12 — a range of −19.6% to +22.3% from the issuance price $6.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

911 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-12-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MBC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$5.34worst · -19.6%$8.12best · +22.3%
  • now $6.64 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.63 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.03–$7.23
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.34–$8.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 911 windows spanning 2022-12-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-10−41.5%−41.5%+0.0%
2026-02-09−37.2%−37.2%+2.8%
2026-02-06−36.6%−36.9%+1.7%
3 best
2023-04-25+43.0%+0.0%+46.2%
2023-04-14+41.5%−1.6%+41.5%
2023-04-26+40.5%+0.0%+43.7%

911 overlapping windows · 2022-12-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+11.2%
n=4
Feb
50%
−1.7%
n=4
Mar
25%
−8.4%
n=4
Apr
50%
−2.4%
n=4
May
50%
+2.4%
n=4
Jun
75%
+6.4%
n=4
Jul
75%
+2.9%
n=4
Aug
50%
+1.5%
n=4
Sep
50%
−1.4%
n=4
Oct
0%
−5.3%
n=3
Nov
33%
+1.6%
n=3
Dec
33%
−1.8%
n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$72026-08-25: 2 insider sales, $55K — Young Mark A. …2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $461K — Wanninger Kurt2026-06-11: 1 insider purchase, $46K — Fracassa Philip D.2026-06-10: 1 insider sale, $237K — Kendrick Bruce Alan2026-06-08: 1 insider purchase, $102K — PETRATIS DAVID D2026-06-04: 1 insider purchase, $43K — Simon Andrea Helen2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $506K — Banyard R David2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $101K — Young Mark A.2026-06: 4 open-market purchases, $696K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $338K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $516K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Young Mark A. — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Young Mark A. — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wanninger Kurt — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fracassa Philip D. — Purchase on 2026-06-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kendrick Bruce Alan — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector PETRATIS DAVID D — Purchase on 2026-06-08, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Simon Andrea Helen — Purchase on 2026-06-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Banyard R David — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Young Mark A. — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Young Mark A.officerSale3,057 @ $9.15$28K−4.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open69,963Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25Young Mark A.officerSale2,943 @ $9.15$27K−4.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open67,020Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-11Wanninger KurtofficerSale50,000 @ $9.22$461K−19.9% of holding−17.8%not yet — horizon still open201,199Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11Fracassa Philip D.directorPurchase5,000 @ $9.11$46K+12.5% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open45,041Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-10Kendrick Bruce AlanofficerSale26,245 @ $9.02$237K−9.8% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open241,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08PETRATIS DAVID DdirectorPurchase11,587 @ $8.82$102K+19.9% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open69,915Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-04Simon Andrea HelendirectorPurchase5,000 @ $8.56$43K+1.0% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open497,341Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Banyard R DaviddirectorPurchase60,000 @ $8.43$506K+3.4% of holding+16.8%not yet — horizon still open1,831,788Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01Young Mark A.officerSale11,765 @ $8.60$101K−16.1% of holding+16.8%not yet — horizon still open61,351Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-28Crisci RobertdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $14.08$282K+43.1% of holding−1.1%−18.4%66,435Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-24CHUGG JULIANA LdirectorPurchase6,989 @ $14.17$99K+26.4% of holding−4.9%−18.4%33,424Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

89 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-03Crisci RobertdirectorAward / grant18,82498,328Form 4
2026-06-03Fracassa Philip D.directorAward / grant18,82440,041Form 4
2026-06-03Grewal NavneetofficerAward / grant72,929286,842Form 4
2026-06-03HACKETT ANN FdirectorAward / grant18,82477,413Form 4
2026-06-03HENDRIX DANIEL TdirectorAward / grant18,82499,009Form 4
2026-06-03Horton AndreanofficerAward / grant62,719249,910Form 4
2026-06-03CHUGG JULIANA LdirectorAward / grant18,82465,317Form 4
2026-06-03Simon Andrea HelendirectorAward / grant105,018492,341Form 4
2026-06-03Perry Jeffery S.directorAward / grant18,82461,635Form 4
2026-06-03Young Mark A.officerAward / grant11,66973,020Form 4
2026-06-03Shannon Patrick SdirectorAward / grant18,82441,672Form 4
2026-06-03PETRATIS DAVID DdirectorAward / grant18,82458,328Form 4
2026-06-03Kendrick Bruce AlanofficerAward / grant70,012267,910Form 4
2026-06-03COURAGE CATHERINEdirectorAward / grant18,82440,357Form 4
2026-06-03Cogan Andrew BdirectorAward / grant18,82499,987Form 4
2026-06-03Banyard R DaviddirectorAward / grant206,8262,038,614Form 4
2026-05-28Fracassa Philip D.directorAward / grant21,21721,217Form 4
2026-05-28Cogan Andrew BdirectorAward / grant81,16381,163Form 4
2026-05-28HENDRIX DANIEL TdirectorAward / grant80,18580,185Form 4
2026-03-16Kendrick Bruce AlanofficerAward / grant42,476197,898Form 4
2026-03-16Wanninger KurtofficerAward / grant39,442251,199Form 4
2026-03-16Grewal NavneetofficerAward / grant57,646213,913Form 4
2026-03-16Banyard R DaviddirectorAward / grant409,8911,771,788Form 4
2026-03-16Simon Andrea HelendirectorAward / grant97,087387,323Form 4
2026-03-16Young Mark A.officerAward / grant24,27273,116Form 4
2026-03-16Horton AndreanofficerAward / grant56,432187,191Form 4
2026-03-02Simon Andrea HelendirectorWithheld for tax16,558290,236Form 4
2026-03-02Horton AndreanofficerWithheld for tax11,706130,759Form 4
2026-03-02Grewal NavneetofficerWithheld for tax10,790156,267Form 4
2026-03-02Wanninger KurtofficerWithheld for tax7,540211,757Form 4
2026-03-02Kendrick Bruce AlanofficerWithheld for tax7,456155,422Form 4
2026-03-02Banyard R DaviddirectorWithheld for tax6,4341,361,897Form 4
2026-03-02Young Mark A.officerWithheld for tax4,22648,844Form 4
2026-02-11Banyard R DaviddirectorWithheld for tax151,6631,368,331Form 4
2026-02-11Simon Andrea HelendirectorWithheld for tax31,519306,794Form 4
2026-02-11Horton AndreanofficerWithheld for tax26,330142,465Form 4
2026-02-11Grewal NavneetofficerWithheld for tax20,413167,057Form 4
2026-02-11Wanninger KurtofficerWithheld for tax18,966219,297Form 4
2026-02-11Kendrick Bruce AlanofficerWithheld for tax17,133162,878Form 4
2026-02-11Wanninger KurtofficerAward / grant42,799238,263Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-16$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2023-01-192022-12-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.