Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.69 · now $10.69 (2026-09-15, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBAV has typically landed between $10.20 and $11.03 — a range of −4.6% to +3.1% from the issuance price $10.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
463 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-23 – 2026-07-29 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MBAV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.72 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.68–$10.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.2–$11.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-06-20 | −21.2% | −21.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-06-18 | −15.3% | −15.3% | +7.0% |
| 2025-06-24 | −14.8% | −15.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-20 | +29.7% | +0.0% | +29.7% |
| 2025-05-19 | +21.3% | +0.0% | +21.3% |
| 2025-05-22 | +19.8% | +0.0% | +29.5% |
463 overlapping windows · 2024-09-23 – 2026-09-15 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | CANTOR FITZGERALD, L. P. | director | Sale | 7,779,865 @ $10.80 | $84.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | CANTOR FITZGERALD & CO. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 3,529,081 @ $10.80 | $38.1M | +83.0% of holding | −2.4% | −11.4% | 7,779,865 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Meghji Mohsin Y | director | Sale | 7,187,500 | — | −100.0% of holding | −4.5% | −20.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | M3-Brigade Sponsor V LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,187,500 | — | −100.0% of holding | −4.5% | −20.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Meghji Mohsin Y | director | Sale | 7,187,500 | — | −100.0% of holding | −4.5% | −20.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | M3-Brigade Sponsor V LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,187,500 | — | −100.0% of holding | −4.5% | −20.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.