Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.04 · now $11.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAX has typically landed between $7.87 and $14.48 — a range of −28.7% to +31.2% from the issuance price $11.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,456 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MAX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.01 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.7–$12.32
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.87–$14.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,456 windows spanning 2020-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-04-04 | −60.9% | −60.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-04-03 | −59.8% | −59.8% | +0.0% |
| 2023-04-10 | −58.8% | −58.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-16 | +79.3% | +0.0% | +79.5% |
| 2024-01-22 | +74.4% | +0.0% | +74.4% |
| 2024-02-05 | +73.8% | +0.0% | +75.8% |
1,456 overlapping windows · 2020-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+11.9%
n=6
Feb
33%
+7.0%
n=6
Mar
17%
−4.5%
n=6
Apr
17%
−9.1%
n=6
May
50%
−0.5%
n=6
Jun
50%
+6.1%
n=6
Jul
33%
+0.7%
n=6
Aug
50%
−9.1%
n=6
Sep
50%
−2.6%
n=6
Oct
60%
+10.1%
n=5
Nov
50%
−3.3%
n=6
Dec
67%
−1.9%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,273 @ $11.24 | $82K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 867,884 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-16 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 1,940 @ $11.25 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 802,955 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Sale | 13,000 @ $11.49 | $149K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 251,303 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,273 @ $11.49 | $84K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 875,157 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 1,940 @ $11.48 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 804,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $11.96 | $93K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 882,430 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.03 | $32K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 806,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,273 @ $11.62 | $85K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 890,208 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 1,940 @ $11.52 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 809,502 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,273 @ $11.41 | $83K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 897,481 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 1,940 @ $11.65 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 811,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,273 @ $11.70 | $85K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 904,754 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 1,940 @ $11.70 | $23K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 813,382 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $12.00 | $36K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 549,091 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $12.24 | $95K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 912,027 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.22 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 815,322 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Yi Steven | director | Sale | 48,000 @ $12.38 | $594K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,339,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $12.39 | $96K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 919,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.45 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 817,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $12.61 | $98K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 927,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.59 | $34K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 820,656 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $12.55 | $98K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 935,361 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.56 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 823,323 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $12.87 | $106K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 943,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $12.89 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 825,990 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $12.99 | $107K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 951,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $12.99 | $43K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 829,272 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $13.23 | $109K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 959,549 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $13.20 | $43K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 832,554 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-18 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $12.88 | $106K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 967,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $12.90 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 835,836 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Cramer Keith | officer | Sale | 13,000 @ $12.76 | $166K | −4.7% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,303 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $12.78 | $105K | −0.8% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 975,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $12.82 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 839,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $13.55 | $163K | −2.2% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 541,985 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $12.78 | $105K | −0.8% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 984,164 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $12.89 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 842,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $13.24 | $109K | −0.8% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 992,369 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $13.36 | $44K | −0.4% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 845,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $13.57 | $111K | −0.8% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $13.30 | $44K | −0.4% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 848,964 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $12.28 | $96K | −0.8% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,008,779 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-05 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.36 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 852,246 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 7,778 @ $12.45 | $97K | −0.8% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,016,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 2,667 @ $12.50 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 854,913 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Yi Steven | director | Sale | 72,000 @ $12.64 | $910K | −2.9% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,387,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $12.48 | $102K | −0.8% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,024,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $12.54 | $41K | −0.4% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 857,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-29 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 9,524 @ $14.05 | $134K | −0.9% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,032,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-29 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 4,952 @ $14.05 | $70K | −0.6% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 860,862 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 10,843 @ $13.78 | $149K | −1.0% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,042,064 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 6,622 @ $13.86 | $92K | −0.8% of holding | −11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 865,814 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 8,205 @ $13.28 | $109K | −0.8% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,052,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $13.28 | $44K | −0.4% of holding | −8.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 872,436 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 9,524 @ $13.71 | $131K | −0.9% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,061,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-22 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 4,952 @ $13.81 | $68K | −0.6% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 875,718 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-21 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 9,524 @ $14.33 | $136K | −0.9% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,070,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-21 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 4,952 @ $14.33 | $71K | −0.6% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 880,670 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 9,524 @ $13.82 | $132K | −0.9% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,080,160 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Nonko Eugene | director | Sale | 4,952 @ $13.87 | $69K | −0.6% of holding | −11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 885,622 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,333 | 1,086,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,252 | 1,080,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,258 | 1,099,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,224 | 581,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,366 | 1,094,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,229 | 577,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,542 | 587,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,187 | 589,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 547,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 4,803 | 552,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 10,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 4,803 | 28,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 10,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 4,472 | 277,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 272,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 4,472 | 26,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,087 | 1,110,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,252 | 1,104,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,253 | 1,121,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,233 | 599,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,702 | 1,118,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,617 | 596,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,808 | 604,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,573 | 602,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 4,471 | 31,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 15,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 4,471 | 306,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cramer Keith | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 302,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | StClair Lauren | director | Award / grant | 20,900 | 20,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 580,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 4,803 | 584,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 5,303 | 15,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Yeh Kuanling Amy | officer | Option exercise | 4,803 | 33,622 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Arasu Venmal (Raji) | director | Award / grant | 20,750 | 119,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | VRABECK KATHY P | director | Award / grant | 20,750 | 150,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Jones Ramon | director | Award / grant | 20,750 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Hunt Bradley William | director | Award / grant | 20,750 | 46,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Award / grant | 57,350 | 57,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | COYNE JEFFREY B | officer | Award / grant | 171,950 | 605,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Thompson Patrick Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 84,750 | 84,750 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.