MATW · TickerCove

MATWMatthews International CorporationIndustrials · Conglomeratesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.95 · now $19.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MATW has typically landed between $17.29 and $22.97 — a range of −13.4% to +15.1% from the issuance price $19.95.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$19.95 · 0% of range

$19.91 low$28.54 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 13.2%

−13.4%worst (p90)+15.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MATW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $19.95 (+0.0%)
typical $19.71 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $18.39–$21.03
90% range $17.29–$22.97

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−43.6%	−43.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−41.0%	−42.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−40.4%	−40.4%	+2.2%
3 best
2024-10-25	+38.2%	+0.0%	+38.2%
2024-10-24	+37.7%	+0.0%	+37.7%
2024-11-04	+36.5%	+0.0%	+37.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

65%

+1.1%

n=20

Feb

30%

−3.5%

n=20

Mar

55%

−0.1%

n=20

Apr

55%

+0.6%

n=20

May

55%

−0.7%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.1%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.4%

n=20

Aug

45%

−2.8%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.7%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.3%

n=20

Nov

65%

+4.3%

n=20

Dec

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $19.99	$20K	+9.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	11,081	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-24	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $21.08	$21K	+11.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	10,081	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	1,900 @ $21.96	$42K	+26.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	9,081	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-19	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	100 @ $21.98	$2K	+1.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,181	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14	Richards Aleta W.	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $23.06	$69K	+31.5% of holding	−11.1%	not yet — horizon still open	12,535	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-10	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $23.60	$118K	+2.3% of holding	−9.8%	not yet — horizon still open	225,206	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-10	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $22.97	$46K	+39.4% of holding	−9.8%	not yet — horizon still open	7,081	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	7 @ $19.22	$135	+0.1% of holding	+10.3%	+0.6%	5,081	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	1,074 @ $19.10	$21K	+26.9% of holding	+10.4%	+2.3%	5,074	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24	Nauman J Michael	director	Purchase	4,000 @ $24.59	$98K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.8%	−5.7%	4,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

111 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-31	Whitehead Michael J	director	Award / grant	69,198	69,198	Form 4
2026-06-01	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Gift	198,014	198,014	Form 4
2026-03-19	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Gift	4,668	0	Form 4
2026-03-19	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Gift	4,668	220,206	Form 4
2026-03-12	Dietze Katherine Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	Nauman J Michael	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	Etzkorn Lillian	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	Wlodarczyk Francis	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	Richards Aleta W.	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	OBRIEN MORGAN K	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	Gebhardt Thomas	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-12	DUNLAP TERRY L	director	Award / grant	5,556	5,556	Form 4
2026-03-07	OBRIEN MORGAN K	director	Option exercise	4,668	41,295	Form 4
2026-03-07	Richards Aleta W.	director	Option exercise	4,668	9,535	Form 4
2026-03-07	Richards Aleta W.	director	Option exercise	4,668	0	Form 4
2026-03-07	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Option exercise	4,668	0	Form 4
2026-03-07	SCHAWK DAVID A	director	Option exercise	4,668	4,668	Form 4
2026-03-07	Wlodarczyk Francis	director	Option exercise	3,989	3,989	Form 4
2026-03-07	Wlodarczyk Francis	director	Option exercise	3,989	0	Form 4
2026-03-07	OBRIEN MORGAN K	director	Option exercise	4,668	0	Form 4
2026-03-07	DUNLAP TERRY L	director	Option exercise	4,668	33,355	Form 4
2026-03-07	DUNLAP TERRY L	director	Option exercise	4,668	0	Form 4
2026-03-07	Dietze Katherine Elizabeth	director	Option exercise	4,668	49,103	Form 4
2026-03-07	Dietze Katherine Elizabeth	director	Option exercise	4,668	0	Form 4
2026-03-07	Etzkorn Lillian	director	Option exercise	4,668	18,331	Form 4
2026-03-07	Etzkorn Lillian	director	Option exercise	4,668	0	Form 4
2025-12-19	Lane Lee	officer	Award / grant	22,470	22,470	Form 4
2025-12-15	GARCIA TUNON ALVARO	director	Award / grant	400	33,935	Form 4
2025-11-20	BARTOLACCI JOSEPH C	director	Withheld for tax	39,141	635,812	Form 4
2025-11-20	NICOLA STEVEN F	officer	Withheld for tax	9,916	209,454	Form 4
2025-11-20	Gackenbach Steven D	officer	Withheld for tax	6,002	111,942	Form 4
2025-11-20	Walters Brian D	officer	Withheld for tax	5,255	86,508	Form 4
2025-11-20	Lane Lee	officer	Withheld for tax	4,019	16,159	Form 4
2025-11-20	Awenowicz Ronald C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,566	12,012	Form 4
2025-11-20	Brkovich Davor	officer	Withheld for tax	1,566	20,003	Form 4
2025-11-20	BARTOLACCI JOSEPH C	director	Option exercise	90,000	674,953	Form 4
2025-11-20	Brkovich Davor	officer	Option exercise	1,800	0	Form 4
2025-11-20	BARTOLACCI JOSEPH C	director	Option exercise	45,000	0	Form 4
2025-11-20	Lane Lee	officer	Option exercise	4,620	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i