MATV · TickerCove

MATVMativ Holdings, Inc.Basic Materials · Paper, Lumber & Forest Productsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.04 · now $12.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MATV has typically landed between $9.50 and $14.90 — a range of −21.1% to +23.8% from the issuance price $12.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.04 · 64% of range

$7.22 low$14.72 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−2.3%

typical move · IQR 17.4%

−21.1%worst (p90)+23.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MATV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.04 (+0.0%)
typical $11.76 (-2.3%)
middle 50% $10.71–$12.81
90% range $9.5–$14.9

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2010-02-02	−41.9%	−41.9%	+0.0%
2026-02-18	−41.8%	−41.8%	+0.0%
2010-01-12	−40.8%	−40.8%	+4.1%
3 best
2025-08-01	+100.7%	+0.0%	+102.5%
2025-08-06	+99.7%	+0.0%	+101.8%
2025-08-04	+92.8%	−1.5%	+98.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.8%

n=20

Feb

35%

−3.2%

n=20

Mar

55%

−1.6%

n=20

Apr

50%

+1.8%

n=20

May

35%

−0.8%

n=20

Jun

55%

+1.1%

n=20

Jul

50%

+1.5%

n=20

Aug

60%

+9.9%

n=20

Sep

50%

−0.9%

n=20

Oct

65%

+3.5%

n=20

Nov

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Dec

60%

+2.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-06-06	Stipancich John K	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $6.40	$32K	+45.0% of holding	+18.3%	+84.2%	16,113	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30	Levi Marco	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $5.78	$58K	+28.8% of holding	+18.3%	+105.6%	44,732	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29	Singhal Shruti	director	Purchase	40,000 @ $5.76	$230K	+241.9% of holding	+13.4%	+106.5%	56,533	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $5.88	$59K	+48.4% of holding	+13.4%	+106.5%	30,640	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-29	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $5.84	$29K	+23.3% of holding	+13.4%	+106.5%	26,436	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

295 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Disposition	6,444	125,113	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	131,557	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	131,557	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	131,557	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	0	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	131,557	Form 4
2026-09-01	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Option exercise	6,444	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Levi Marco	director	Withheld for tax	5,499	57,201	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hausmann Bruce Andrew	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	Levi Marco	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Award / grant	822	40,765	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Award / grant	968	41,733	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Award / grant	19,815	61,549	Form 4
2026-07-01	Stipancich John K	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	1,075	59,098	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	1,075	59,098	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	658	59,756	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	968	60,724	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	19,815	80,539	Form 4
2026-07-01	Stipancich John K	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Award / grant	822	40,765	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Award / grant	968	41,733	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ritrievi Kimberly E	director	Award / grant	19,815	61,549	Form 4
2026-07-01	Borg Deborah	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	Levi Marco	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hausmann Bruce Andrew	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	Borg Deborah	director	Award / grant	19,815	19,815	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	19,815	80,539	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	968	60,724	Form 4
2026-07-01	COOK WILLIAM M	director	Award / grant	658	59,756	Form 4
2026-04-26	Elwart Ryan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	3,318	151,994	Form 4
2026-04-26	Elwart Ryan Michael	officer	Option exercise	11,070	155,312	Form 4
2026-04-26	Elwart Ryan Michael	officer	Option exercise	11,070	0	Form 4
2026-04-26	Elwart Ryan Michael	officer	Option exercise	11,070	0	Form 4
2026-03-19	Elwart Ryan Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	3,562	144,242	Form 4
2026-03-19	JOHNSON MARK W	officer	Withheld for tax	2,944	125,113	Form 4
2026-03-19	Allegri Cheryl	officer	Withheld for tax	965	17,377	Form 4
2026-03-11	Singhal Shruti	director	Withheld for tax	84,016	278,194	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i