MATMattel, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.17 · now $13.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAT has typically landed between $11.38 and $15.27 — a range of −13.6% to +15.9% from the issuance price $13.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.38worst · -13.6%$15.27best · +15.9%
  • now $13.17 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.11 (-0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.37–$13.85
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.38–$15.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−45.4%−45.4%+0.0%
2020-02-11−44.7%−44.7%+1.5%
2020-02-21−44.1%−44.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+38.7%+0.0%+41.4%
2019-01-14+38.2%−4.3%+38.2%
2008-11-19+37.8%−0.7%+40.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Mar
42%
−3.9%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.9%
n=19
May
42%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
58%
+4.1%
n=19
Aug
42%
−2.7%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.5%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$22$132026-08-31: 1 insider sale, $587K — Isaias Zanatta Roberto Jacobo2026-02-12: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Kreiz Ynon2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $587K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Isaias Zanatta Roberto Jacobo — Sale on 2026-08-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kreiz Ynon — Purchase on 2026-02-12, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31Isaias Zanatta Roberto JacoboofficerSale39,083 @ $15.02$587K−21.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open144,390Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-12Kreiz YnondirectorPurchase65,000 @ $15.53$1.0M+3.8% of holding+1.2%−20.4%1,794,217Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

228 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Stanichi Roberto SeixasofficerAward / grant132,538132,538Form 4
2026-07-31Stanichi Roberto SeixasofficerAward / grant62,95662,956Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerWithheld for tax31,36050,788Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerWithheld for tax8,67115,939Form 4
2026-05-29Ancira KarenofficerWithheld for tax5,99126,279Form 4
2026-05-29Ancira KarenofficerOption exercise16,69517,201Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerOption exercise24,61049,968Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerOption exercise66,209134,425Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerOption exercise24,61024,610Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerOption exercise66,20982,148Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerOption exercise66,20982,148Form 4
2026-05-29Ancira KarenofficerOption exercise16,69532,270Form 4
2026-05-29Ruh PaulofficerOption exercise24,61024,610Form 4
2026-05-29Ancira KarenofficerOption exercise16,69532,270Form 4
2026-05-28Lynch RogerdirectorAward / grant11,75323,746Form 4
2026-05-28GENACHOWSKI JULIUSdirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28Hertz NoreenadirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28Laursen Soren TdirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28Lynch RogerdirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28NG DOMINICdirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28Olian Judy D.directorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28OSTROFF DAWNdirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28FERGUSON DIANA SUEdirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-28Cisneros AdrianadirectorAward / grant11,75311,753Form 4
2026-05-15Hertz NoreenadirectorWithheld for tax1,7198,641Form 4
2026-05-15Laursen Soren TdirectorOption exercise8,5940Form 4
2026-05-15Cisneros AdrianadirectorOption exercise8,5940Form 4
2026-05-15Olian Judy D.directorOption exercise8,5940Form 4
2026-05-15Lynch RogerdirectorOption exercise8,5940Form 4
2026-05-15Hertz NoreenadirectorOption exercise8,5940Form 4
2026-05-15FERGUSON DIANA SUEdirectorOption exercise8,5940Form 4
2026-05-15Olian Judy D.directorOption exercise8,59459,298Form 4
2026-05-15FERGUSON DIANA SUEdirectorOption exercise8,59427,551Form 4
2026-05-15Hertz NoreenadirectorOption exercise8,59410,360Form 4
2026-05-15Lynch RogerdirectorOption exercise8,59430,784Form 4
2026-05-15Laursen Soren TdirectorOption exercise8,59473,224Form 4
2026-05-15Cisneros AdrianadirectorOption exercise8,59437,669Form 4
2026-05-07Kreiz YnondirectorWithheld for tax26,0621,842,633Form 4
2026-05-07Isaias Zanatta Roberto JacoboofficerWithheld for tax9,031183,473Form 4
2026-05-07Anschell JonathanofficerWithheld for tax7,466125,610Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-04-072023-03-14$1–15K
Susie LeeHousesale2022-12-292022-11-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-12-062022-11-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-05-23$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2021-02-102021-01-28$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2021-01-112020-12-08$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2020-10-242020-09-18$1–15K
Susie LeeHousepurchase2020-07-102020-06-23$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2019-06-132019-05-13$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2019-03-212019-02-04$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2019-02-182019-01-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-02-112018-01-02$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatesale2017-12-082017-11-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.