MASMasco CorporationIndustrials · Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $68.28 · now $68.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAS has typically landed between $60.28 and $78.10 — a range of −11.7% to +14.4% from the issuance price $68.28.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($68.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MAS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $68.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$60.28worst · -11.7%$78.1best · +14.4%
  • now $68.28 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $68.87 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.61–$73.12
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.28–$78.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-05−54.0%−54.0%+1.9%
2009-02-04−51.3%−51.3%+1.5%
2009-02-03−50.4%−50.4%+0.6%
3 best
2009-03-09+100.8%+0.0%+113.0%
2009-03-06+100.4%−5.9%+100.4%
2009-03-05+90.8%−8.5%+95.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$16.0B
market cap
$4.03
EPS (TTM)
19.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$7.6B
'20'25
Net income$810M
'20'25
Free cash flow$866M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-435.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-18.47
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $68.28$56.24$128.52
  • DCF (intrinsic)$61.23
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$123.53
  • Analyst target · range $72.00–$97.00$84.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$68.28

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.7%
n=19
Apr
42%
+2.1%
n=19
May
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.8%
n=19
Jul
74%
+5.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.6%
n=19
Oct
33%
−1.3%
n=18
Nov
89%
+5.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$83$582026-03-07: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — PAYNE LISA A …2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $54K — Eisman Heath M2026-02-12: 2 insider sales, $4.0M — Cole Kenneth G. …2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $6.3M — Shah Jai2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $181K — Eisman Heath M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $6.5M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector PAYNE LISA A — Sale on 2026-03-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector PAYNE LISA A — Sale on 2026-03-07, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Eisman Heath M — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Cole Kenneth G. — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Cole Kenneth G. — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Shah Jai — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Eisman Heath M — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-07PAYNE LISA AdirectorSale14,729 @ $63.66$938K−51.6% of holding−5.5%−0.4%13,837Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-07PAYNE LISA AdirectorSale2,006 @ $63.66$128K−51.0% of holding−5.5%−0.4%1,929Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26Eisman Heath MofficerSale747 @ $71.92$54K−5.6% of holding−10.0%−11.4%12,510Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerSale27,790 @ $77.06$2.1M−40.2% of holding−17.8%−17.8%41,371Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerSale24,110 @ $77.00$1.9M−25.8% of holding−17.8%−17.8%69,161Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-22Shah JaidirectorSale82,910 @ $76.04$6.3M−67.7% of holding−8.3%−8.5%39,638Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19Eisman Heath MofficerSale2,431 @ $74.62$181K−16.8% of holding−5.5%−6.3%12,036Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Straber ReneeofficerSale3,139 @ $71.78$225K−8.7% of holding−9.7%−14.6%33,027Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07Alexander Mark R.directorSale20,172 @ $74.03$1.5M−53.0% of holding−6.8%−11.6%17,919Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-26Allman Keith J.directorSale21,723 @ $76.36$1.7M−26.5% of holding−3.0%−10.4%60,267Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08Ffolkes Marie AdirectorAward / grant2,65024,517Form 4
2026-05-08Alexander Mark R.directorAward / grant2,65023,469Form 4
2026-05-08Coombe Gary AdirectorAward / grant2,6503,630Form 4
2026-05-08Denari AinedirectorAward / grant2,65013,970Form 4
2026-05-08Stevens Charles K. IIIdirectorAward / grant2,65018,090Form 4
2026-05-08O'HERLIHY CHRISTOPHER AdirectorAward / grant2,65051,766Form 4
2026-05-08Sandeep ReddydirectorAward / grant2,65010,460Form 4
2026-05-08PAYNE LISA AdirectorAward / grant2,65016,487Form 4
2026-05-08PLANT JOHN CdirectorAward / grant2,65050,574Form 4
2026-03-06Shah JaidirectorWithheld for tax4,41045,966Form 4
2026-02-25Westenberg Richard J.officerWithheld for tax6,56540,576Form 4
2026-02-25Stone Jennifer AofficerWithheld for tax4,76725,433Form 4
2026-02-25Nudi JonathondirectorWithheld for tax2,50142,809Form 4
2026-02-25Shah JaidirectorWithheld for tax1,95450,376Form 4
2026-02-25Cole Kenneth G.officerWithheld for tax1,67139,700Form 4
2026-02-25Marshall Richard AllanofficerWithheld for tax51517,496Form 4
2026-02-25Eisman Heath MofficerWithheld for tax37913,257Form 4
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerOption exercise24,11082,265Form 4
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerOption exercise27,79058,155Form 4
2026-02-12Shah JaidirectorWithheld for tax3,24852,330Form 4
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerWithheld for tax2,58993,271Form 4
2026-02-12Marshall Richard AllanofficerWithheld for tax1,41818,011Form 4
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerAward / grant4,31095,860Form 4
2026-02-12Eisman Heath MofficerAward / grant1,60013,636Form 4
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerAward / grant9,28591,550Form 4
2026-02-12Shah JaidirectorAward / grant11,11050,748Form 4
2026-02-12Shah JaidirectorAward / grant4,83055,578Form 4
2026-02-12Stone Jennifer AofficerAward / grant4,06030,200Form 4
2026-02-12Westenberg Richard J.officerAward / grant6,89047,141Form 4
2026-02-12Marshall Richard AllanofficerAward / grant4,67516,629Form 4
2026-02-12Marshall Richard AllanofficerAward / grant2,80019,429Form 4
2026-02-12Nudi JonathondirectorAward / grant22,56045,310Form 4
2026-02-12Nudi JonathondirectorAward / grant70,78070,780Form 4
2026-02-12Stone Jennifer AofficerAward / grant12,75012,750Form 4
2026-02-12Marshall Richard AllanofficerAward / grant8,8008,800Form 4
2026-02-12Marshall Richard AllanofficerAward / grant8,8008,800Form 4
2026-02-12Cole Kenneth G.officerAward / grant13,52013,520Form 4
2026-02-12Westenberg Richard J.officerAward / grant21,61021,610Form 4
2026-02-12Stone Jennifer AofficerAward / grant12,75012,750Form 4
2026-02-12Shah JaidirectorAward / grant15,15015,150Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-05-142025-04-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.