Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.04 · now $11.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MARA has typically landed between $6.74 and $17.73 — a range of −38.9% to +60.6% from the issuance price $11.04.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,585 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-05-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MARA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.04 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.76 (-2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.65–$12.88
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.74–$17.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,585 windows spanning 2012-05-04 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2017-04-21 | −70.0% | −70.0% | +1.7% |
| 2013-02-19 | −64.7% | −64.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −64.0% | −64.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-07 | +465.6% | −2.2% | +465.6% |
| 2020-12-08 | +409.5% | −8.3% | +409.5% |
| 2020-12-10 | +401.0% | −9.0% | +405.6% |
3,585 overlapping windows · 2012-05-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+10.2%
n=14
Feb
43%
+8.5%
n=14
Mar
29%
−12.2%
n=14
Apr
43%
+2.3%
n=14
May
50%
+1.5%
n=14
Jun
60%
+3.2%
n=15
Jul
67%
+20.6%
n=15
Aug
20%
−1.2%
n=15
Sep
27%
−6.5%
n=15
Oct
50%
+1.8%
n=14
Nov
57%
+26.9%
n=14
Dec
29%
−3.8%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 8,376 @ $12.00 | $101K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 898,780 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $9.21 | $253K | −0.6% of holding | +16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,335,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $9.21 | $147K | −4.1% of holding | +16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 8,376 @ $12.00 | $101K | −0.9% of holding | −26.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 934,468 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $10.90 | $300K | −0.6% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,471,403 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $10.90 | $174K | −3.9% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 393,066 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $16.00 | $112K | −2.9% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 231,618 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $14.25 | $392K | −0.6% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,562,009 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $14.25 | $228K | −3.8% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 409,066 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $14.25 | $100K | −0.7% of holding | −16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 963,768 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $12.00 | $330K | −0.6% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,589,514 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $12.00 | $192K | −3.6% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 425,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 8,250 @ $12.00 | $99K | −0.8% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 970,768 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 42,090 @ $12.00 | $505K | −4.0% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,007,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $11.68 | $321K | −0.6% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,725,219 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $11.68 | $187K | −3.5% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 441,066 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $9.18 | $252K | −0.6% of holding | +20.1% | +6.5% | 4,788,954 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $9.18 | $147K | −4.5% of holding | +20.1% | +6.5% | 343,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $7.66 | $211K | −0.8% of holding | +21.9% | +6.3% | 3,381,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,000 @ $7.66 | $123K | −4.3% of holding | +21.9% | +6.3% | 359,165 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $10.80 | $297K | −0.8% of holding | −24.3% | +8.8% | 3,517,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $10.77 | $296K | −0.8% of holding | +3.2% | +37.8% | 3,555,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,732 @ $11.48 | $399K | −12.3% of holding | −2.4% | +20.6% | 248,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,732 @ $11.99 | $416K | −10.9% of holding | −14.6% | +2.3% | 283,298 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $11.99 | $330K | −0.8% of holding | −14.6% | +2.3% | 3,582,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 25,023 @ $15.87 | $397K | −3.3% of holding | −24.4% | −27.7% | 723,226 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $16.55 | $17K | −0.6% of holding | −24.4% | −27.7% | 170,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 90 @ $16.58 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −24.4% | −27.7% | 723,136 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 4,887 @ $16.70 | $82K | −0.6% of holding | −26.5% | −27.0% | 752,489 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $19.57 | $538K | −0.7% of holding | −41.4% | −49.2% | 3,718,700 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,732 @ $22.74 | $790K | −9.8% of holding | −45.1% | −56.6% | 318,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $20.71 | $21K | −0.6% of holding | −16.7% | −54.4% | 171,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $17.38 | $478K | −0.7% of holding | +16.4% | −47.5% | 3,755,789 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $16.35 | $450K | −0.7% of holding | +29.2% | −49.9% | 3,783,294 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,732 @ $16.24 | $564K | −9.8% of holding | +36.5% | −45.2% | 318,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $16.10 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | +24.2% | −47.5% | 172,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Mealer-Burke Vicki | director | Sale | 14,887 @ $15.22 | $227K | −20.4% of holding | +29.8% | −48.6% | 58,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $15.28 | $420K | −0.7% of holding | +5.3% | −60.7% | 3,810,799 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,732 @ $15.73 | $546K | −9.0% of holding | +9.3% | −58.8% | 353,160 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $16.21 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | −7.3% | −58.2% | 173,859 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-16 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $19.52 | $537K | −0.7% of holding | −22.3% | −54.1% | 3,946,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-15 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,732 @ $19.05 | $662K | −9.7% of holding | −19.1% | −53.8% | 324,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-07 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $17.42 | $17K | −0.6% of holding | −7.9% | −48.2% | 174,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $15.30 | $421K | −0.7% of holding | +25.8% | −43.8% | 3,983,593 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 34,733 @ $15.85 | $551K | −2.4% of holding | +15.2% | −40.0% | 1,413,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $16.00 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | +12.5% | −40.7% | 175,859 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $15.68 | $431K | −0.7% of holding | −10.1% | −39.8% | 4,011,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,700 @ $15.68 | $262K | −1.0% of holding | −10.1% | −39.8% | 1,598,943 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 55,010 @ $15.00 | $825K | −1.3% of holding | −2.2% | −18.9% | 4,146,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 33,400 @ $15.00 | $501K | −1.9% of holding | −2.2% | −18.9% | 1,680,971 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $16.00 | $48K | −1.7% of holding | −2.2% | −18.9% | 176,859 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $13.34 | $27K | +0.2% of holding | −6.6% | +1.0% | 863,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,700 @ $15.31 | $256K | −0.9% of holding | −10.5% | +6.1% | 1,773,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $16.68 | $459K | −0.7% of holding | −14.7% | −10.7% | 3,910,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $18.01 | $495K | −0.7% of holding | −15.6% | −4.0% | 4,100,585 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $17.00 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | −9.3% | +5.1% | 137,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Sale | 27,505 @ $23.50 | $646K | −0.7% of holding | −17.7% | −40.5% | 4,128,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Sale | 16,700 @ $23.50 | $392K | −0.9% of holding | −17.7% | −40.5% | 1,836,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $23.80 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | −18.0% | −34.5% | 138,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
101 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 27,316 | 4,363,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,139 | 907,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 40,388 | 4,390,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,215 | 1,606,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,745 | 911,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 40,497 | 4,430,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,569 | 1,636,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,428 | 921,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 63,101 | 4,498,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 61,515 | 1,670,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,924 | 942,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 27,316 | 4,617,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,248 | 979,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 80,884 | 4,644,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 65,456 | 1,731,655 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,781 | 983,266 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 36,230 | 4,752,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 30,820 | 1,920,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,328 | 1,049,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,452 | 1,911,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 91,356 | 4,816,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 77,713 | 1,951,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,087 | 1,061,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Award / grant | 197,919 | 1,092,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Award / grant | 494,798 | 2,028,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Award / grant | 752,093 | 4,907,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Award / grant | 773,861 | 4,155,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Award / grant | 203,648 | 894,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Award / grant | 509,119 | 1,534,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Humpton Barbara | director | Award / grant | 82,759 | 136,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Mealer-Burke Vicki | director | Award / grant | 82,759 | 140,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | MELLINGER DOUGLAS K | director | Award / grant | 82,759 | 253,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | ANTOUN GEORGES | director | Award / grant | 82,759 | 250,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | GEORGE JANET | director | Award / grant | 82,759 | 136,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Leupp Jay P | director | Award / grant | 82,759 | 261,618 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 67,704 | 3,409,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,007 | 1,104,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Nowaid Zabi | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,249 | 690,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Thiel Frederick G | director | Withheld for tax | 40,496 | 3,477,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Khan Salman Hassan | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,449 | 1,135,366 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.