Issued 2026-09-16 at $334.97 · now $334.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAR has typically landed between $296.17 and $378.61 — a range of −11.6% to +13.0% from the issuance price $334.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($334.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $334.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $334.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $341.18 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $323.42–$358.95
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $296.17–$378.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −55.8% | −55.8% | +1.9% |
| 2020-02-19 | −54.6% | −56.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −50.8% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +51.9% | +0.0% | +54.1% |
| 2009-03-05 | +49.5% | −3.0% | +49.5% |
| 2009-03-31 | +44.0% | +0.0% | +44.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$98.7B
market cap
$9.51
EPS (TTM)
39.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-03
next earnings
Revenue$26.2B
'20'25
Net income$2.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr9.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-69.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr-4.53
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$178.60
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$226.54
- Analyst target · range $350.00–$449.00$392.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$334.97
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.6%
n=18
Feb
58%
+3.1%
n=19
Mar
58%
−0.5%
n=19
Apr
74%
+5.6%
n=19
May
26%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
37%
−3.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
+1.6%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Roe Peggy | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $361.56 | $1.1M | −13.1% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Mao Yibing | officer | Sale | 4,816 @ $347.72 | $1.7M | −15.0% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,398 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Sale | 3,492 @ $354.00 | $1.2M | −36.8% of holding | −3.4% | −9.7% | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Brown William P | director | Sale | 9,456 @ $358.25 | $3.4M | −46.2% of holding | −4.7% | −11.4% | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Sale | 6,333 @ $356.61 | $2.3M | −40.0% of holding | −4.7% | −11.4% | 9,492 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Breland Benjamin T. | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $358.03 | $716K | −7.0% of holding | −4.7% | −11.4% | 26,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Capuano Anthony | director | Sale | 41,602 @ $359.43 | $15.0M | −26.8% of holding | −7.1% | −13.5% | 113,617 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Capuano Anthony | director | Sale | 16,610 @ $358.47 | $6.0M | −7.8% of holding | −7.1% | −13.5% | 196,325 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Capuano Anthony | director | Sale | 4,788 @ $360.01 | $1.7M | −2.2% of holding | −7.1% | −13.5% | 212,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Marriott David S | director | Sale | 4,747 @ $360.00 | $1.7M | −0.8% of holding | −7.1% | −13.5% | 591,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Pinto Drew | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $359.81 | $1.4M | −32.7% of holding | −7.1% | −13.5% | 8,221 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Reiss Rena Hozore | officer | Sale | 2,512 @ $357.00 | $897K | −7.0% of holding | −5.7% | −13.0% | 33,487 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Lee Felitia | officer | Sale | 1,089 @ $305.00 | $332K | −18.2% of holding | +3.6% | +19.0% | 4,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Lee Felitia | officer | Sale | 528 @ $308.00 | $163K | −8.1% of holding | +3.6% | +19.0% | 5,982 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Lee Felitia | officer | Sale | 500 @ $300.00 | $150K | −7.1% of holding | +1.2% | +11.3% | 6,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Lee Felitia | officer | Sale | 373 @ $303.70 | $113K | −5.1% of holding | +1.2% | +11.3% | 7,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $291.63 | $20.4M | −28.5% of holding | +0.9% | +11.4% | 175,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Roe Peggy | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $292.12 | $584K | −10.3% of holding | −1.9% | +11.5% | 17,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Reiss Rena Hozore | officer | Sale | 2,871 @ $288.70 | $829K | −6.8% of holding | −4.1% | +10.2% | 39,360 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Reiss Rena Hozore | officer | Sale | 2,612 @ $285.36 | $745K | −5.8% of holding | −4.1% | +10.2% | 42,231 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Breland Benjamin T. | officer | Sale | 1,650 @ $286.10 | $472K | −8.3% of holding | −4.1% | +10.2% | 18,225 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Brown William P | director | Sale | 6,666 @ $280.04 | $1.9M | −37.7% of holding | +0.6% | +15.3% | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $268.28 | $671K | −30.5% of holding | −3.0% | +3.8% | 5,706 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Capuano Anthony | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $263.90 | $3.2M | −8.8% of holding | +0.3% | −0.5% | 124,067 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Breland Benjamin T. | officer | Sale | 850 @ $275.03 | $234K | −4.1% of holding | −6.6% | −10.0% | 19,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Breland Benjamin T. | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $270.21 | $270K | −4.6% of holding | −5.1% | −10.2% | 20,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | SCHWAB SUSAN C | director | Sale | 1,054 @ $277.48 | $292K | −18.8% of holding | −7.4% | −10.4% | 4,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Brown William P | director | Sale | 12,642 @ $285.63 | $3.6M | −29.0% of holding | −8.2% | −8.8% | 30,919 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Oberg Kathleen K. | director | Sale | 11,103 @ $278.60 | $3.1M | −43.7% of holding | −8.2% | −8.8% | 14,282 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Reiss Rena Hozore | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $286.65 | $1.0M | −12.4% of holding | −8.2% | −8.8% | 24,733 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Oberg Kathleen K. | director | Sale | 3,395 @ $276.33 | $938K | −11.8% of holding | −8.2% | −8.8% | 25,385 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | Anand Satyajit | officer | Sale | 1,919 @ $293.63 | $563K | −7.8% of holding | −3.8% | −8.2% | 22,559 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Marriott David S | director | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,027,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Juliana B. Marriott Marital Trust | other | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,027,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,027,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Marriott Juliana B. | other | Other acquisition | 2,000,000 | 20,027,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Jones Neal | officer | Withheld for tax | 107 | 3,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Reid Grant | director | Award / grant | 39 | 3,557 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | LEWIS AYLWIN B | director | Award / grant | 10 | 13,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | MARRIOTT J W JR | other | Gift | 17,500 | 2,540,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Gift | 52 | 21,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | MARRIOTT J W JR | other | Gift | 52 | 2,557,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Hill David Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 87 | 5,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Hill David Shawn | officer | Award / grant | 87 | 5,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Award / grant | 670 | 1,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | SCHWAB SUSAN C | director | Award / grant | 670 | 10,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | LEWIS AYLWIN B | director | Award / grant | 670 | 13,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Tresvant Sean | director | Award / grant | 670 | 1,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | ROZANSKI HORACIO | director | Award / grant | 670 | 5,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | ROZANSKI HORACIO | director | Award / grant | 663 | 663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Reid Grant | director | Award / grant | 670 | 3,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Goren Isabella D | director | Award / grant | 670 | 4,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Henderson Frederick A. | director | Award / grant | 670 | 20,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | McCarthy Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 670 | 9,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Hobart Lauren R | director | Award / grant | 670 | 3,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Gift | 936 | 21,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | MARRIOTT J W JR | other | Gift | 2,340 | 2,557,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Gift | 52 | 43,631 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Marriott David S | director | Gift | 52 | 591,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Marriott David S | director | Gift | 52 | 9,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Harrison Deborah Marriott | director | Gift | 52 | 16,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | LEWIS AYLWIN B | director | Award / grant | 11 | 12,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Hill David Shawn | officer | Withheld for tax | 382 | 5,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 4,992 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,488 | 15,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 4,992 | 17,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 2,298 | 1,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,548 | 18,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 2,298 | 19,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 1,240 | 2,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,002 | 19,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | Menon Rajeev | officer | Option exercise | 1,240 | 20,863 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Susie Lee | House | sale | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.