Issued 2026-09-16 at $212.03 · now $212.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MANH has typically landed between $180.72 and $247.99 — a range of −14.8% to +17.0% from the issuance price $212.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($212.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MANH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $212.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $212.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $214.21 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $200.91–$227.5
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $180.72–$247.99
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −53.9% | −53.9% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −44.7% | −51.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −44.4% | −54.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-03 | +54.2% | +0.0% | +58.5% |
| 2020-04-02 | +53.6% | −1.4% | +56.3% |
| 2020-03-18 | +53.6% | +0.0% | +59.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $197.76 | $593K | −3.2% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Hollembaek Linda T. | director | Sale | 1,579 @ $189.88 | $300K | −11.4% of holding | +11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,268 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Sale | 5,139 @ $195.53 | $1.0M | −8.5% of holding | +13.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,676 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $146.77 | $147K | −1.1% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-24 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Sale | 7,300 @ $139.25 | $1.0M | −10.7% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-28 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $176.40 | $282K | −3.1% of holding | −1.8% | −23.9% | 50,486 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Sale | 1,274 @ $218.62 | $279K | −2.5% of holding | −7.5% | −42.3% | 49,168 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Sale | 1,026 @ $218.79 | $224K | −2.0% of holding | −7.5% | −42.3% | 50,442 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 9,365 @ $223.66 | $2.1M | −5.4% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 162,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 7,088 @ $220.21 | $1.6M | −4.0% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 172,353 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 6,310 @ $224.37 | $1.4M | −3.4% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 179,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 5,429 @ $222.12 | $1.2M | −2.8% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 185,751 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 4,597 @ $219.48 | $1.0M | −2.3% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 191,180 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 3,957 @ $221.47 | $876K | −2.0% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 195,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Hollembaek Linda T. | director | Sale | 1,724 @ $221.42 | $382K | −12.6% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 11,907 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Capel Eddie | director | Sale | 596 @ $225.04 | $134K | −0.3% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 199,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Hollembaek Linda T. | director | Sale | 300 @ $222.18 | $67K | −2.2% of holding | −4.7% | −38.6% | 13,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $220.33 | $507K | −4.5% of holding | −2.2% | −27.9% | 48,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | STORY DENNIS B | officer | Sale | 2,788 @ $170.83 | $476K | −2.7% of holding | +1.4% | +13.7% | 101,263 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | MORAN CHARLES E | director | Gift | 1,330 | 1,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | NOONAN THOMAS E | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 103,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MORAN CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 3,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Eger Edmond | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 8,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hollembaek Linda T. | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 13,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kuryea Kimberly A | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 8,027 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Capel Eddie | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 156,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | SHEER DANIELLE | director | Award / grant | 1,940 | 3,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Pinne Linda C. | officer | Award / grant | 5,323 | 47,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Capel Eddie | director | Withheld for tax | 2,213 | 154,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 1,595 | 93,638 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,467 | 68,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Howell Robert G | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,467 | 177,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | STORY DENNIS B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,334 | 118,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Richards Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 508 | 30,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Pinne Linda C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 75 | 42,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 4,758 | 95,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Richards Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 3,417 | 26,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Howell Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 13,668 | 166,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Award / grant | 13,668 | 56,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | STORY DENNIS B | officer | Award / grant | 13,668 | 107,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Pinne Linda C. | officer | Award / grant | 2,050 | 41,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Award / grant | 34,169 | 83,777 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Capel Eddie | director | Withheld for tax | 26,263 | 136,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | STORY DENNIS B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,541 | 94,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Howell Robert G | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,202 | 152,343 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,416 | 42,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Richards Bruce | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,339 | 22,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Pinne Linda C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,292 | 39,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 878 | 49,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | STORY DENNIS B | officer | Award / grant | 2,556 | 115,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Howell Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 2,809 | 173,707 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Howell Robert G | officer | Award / grant | 10,353 | 170,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Pinne Linda C. | officer | Award / grant | 217 | 41,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Pinne Linda C. | officer | Award / grant | 798 | 41,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Award / grant | 2,809 | 62,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Richards Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 975 | 29,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Gantt James Stewart | officer | Award / grant | 10,353 | 59,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Richards Bruce | officer | Award / grant | 3,593 | 28,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Clark Eric Andrew | director | Award / grant | 16,214 | 66,700 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.