MAIRMadison Air Solutions CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.48 · now $23.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAIR has typically landed between $18.09 and $28.94 — a range of −23.0% to +23.3% from the issuance price $23.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,734 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-032026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MAIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$18.09worst · -23.0%$28.94best · +23.3%
  • now $23.48 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.11 (-10.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.59$22.64
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.09$28.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,734 windows spanning 2005-01-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2010-08-26−72.2%−72.2%+0.0%
2010-08-27−72.2%−72.2%+0.0%
2010-09-14−71.0%−72.2%+0.0%
3 best
2015-07-10+1993.6%+0.0%+1993.6%
2015-07-06+1978.8%+0.0%+1978.8%
2015-07-08+1972.9%+0.0%+1978.8%

1,734 overlapping windows · 2005-01-032026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
+7.4%
n=6
Feb
29%
+2.1%
n=7
Mar
43%
+4.0%
n=7
Apr
57%
+0.7%
n=7
May
25%
+3.6%
n=8
Jun
25%
−0.6%
n=8
Jul
13%
−6.9%
n=8
Aug
43%
−1.7%
n=7
Sep
38%
−2.3%
n=8
Oct
14%
−7.4%
n=7
Nov
0%
−5.0%
n=7
Dec
50%
−3.8%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$232026-08-25: 2 insider purchases, $219.6M — BERTARELLI ERNESTO, La Force Andrew Hudson III2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $219.6M↑ buys↓ salestenPercentOwner BERTARELLI ERNESTO — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector La Force Andrew Hudson III — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25BERTARELLI ERNESTOtenPercentOwnerPurchase8,770,524 @ $24.97$219.0M+23.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open46,387,522Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-25La Force Andrew Hudson IIIdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $27.84$557K+119.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open36,713Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Gies LarrydirectorAward / grant12,815,37812,815,378Form 4
2026-08-25Gies LarrydirectorAward / grant12,014,41712,014,417Form 4
2026-08-21Larson LeahofficerWithheld for tax20,518181,331Form 4
2026-07-15Wisniewski David MofficerAward / grant19,80819,808Form 4
2026-06-25NOLEN GEORGEdirectorAward / grant5,0775,077Form 4
2026-06-25La Force Andrew Hudson IIIdirectorAward / grant5,71116,713Form 4
2026-06-23Wyant Jill SdirectorWithheld for tax93,6183,472,415Form 4
2026-06-23Foley John Joseph VofficerWithheld for tax21,1431,641,786Form 4
2026-06-16Wyant Jill SdirectorWithheld for tax167,5163,566,033Form 4
2026-05-18Philippi DaleofficerAward / grant18,293233,613Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.