Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.48 · now $23.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAIR has typically landed between $18.09 and $28.94 — a range of −23.0% to +23.3% from the issuance price $23.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,734 overlapping 1 month windows · 2005-01-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MAIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.11 (-10.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.59–$22.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.09–$28.94
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2010-08-26 | −72.2% | −72.2% | +0.0% |
| 2010-08-27 | −72.2% | −72.2% | +0.0% |
| 2010-09-14 | −71.0% | −72.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2015-07-10 | +1993.6% | +0.0% | +1993.6% |
| 2015-07-06 | +1978.8% | +0.0% | +1978.8% |
| 2015-07-08 | +1972.9% | +0.0% | +1978.8% |
1,734 overlapping windows · 2005-01-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | BERTARELLI ERNESTO | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,770,524 @ $24.97 | $219.0M | +23.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,387,522 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | La Force Andrew Hudson III | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $27.84 | $557K | +119.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,713 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
10 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Gies Larry | director | Award / grant | 12,815,378 | 12,815,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Gies Larry | director | Award / grant | 12,014,417 | 12,014,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Larson Leah | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,518 | 181,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Wisniewski David M | officer | Award / grant | 19,808 | 19,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | NOLEN GEORGE | director | Award / grant | 5,077 | 5,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | La Force Andrew Hudson III | director | Award / grant | 5,711 | 16,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Wyant Jill S | director | Withheld for tax | 93,618 | 3,472,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Foley John Joseph V | officer | Withheld for tax | 21,143 | 1,641,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wyant Jill S | director | Withheld for tax | 167,516 | 3,566,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Philippi Dale | officer | Award / grant | 18,293 | 233,613 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.