Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.40 · now $1.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAIA has typically landed between $0.98 and $2.09 — a range of −29.9% to +49.1% from the issuance price $1.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,017 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-07-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MAIA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.34 (-4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.18–$1.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.9809–$2.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,017 windows spanning 2022-07-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-11-07 | −59.5% | −60.0% | +0.0% |
| 2023-11-10 | −58.3% | −58.3% | +0.0% |
| 2023-11-09 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-12-24 | +99.3% | −10.1% | +99.3% |
| 2025-12-19 | +96.7% | +0.0% | +96.7% |
| 2025-12-18 | +95.0% | +0.0% | +95.0% |
1,017 overlapping windows · 2022-07-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+28.6%
n=4
Feb
0%
−6.1%
n=4
Mar
25%
−2.7%
n=4
Apr
50%
+13.1%
n=4
May
75%
+11.2%
n=4
Jun
50%
−9.0%
n=4
Jul
25%
−7.7%
n=4
Aug
20%
−10.9%
n=5
Sep
40%
+1.4%
n=5
Oct
25%
−4.0%
n=4
Nov
25%
−18.9%
n=4
Dec
50%
+7.8%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 73,000 @ $1.37 | $100K | +7.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,049,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 37,595 @ $1.32 | $50K | +5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 773,296 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 46,620 @ $1.35 | $63K | +6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 735,701 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 78,239 @ $1.39 | $109K | +12.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 689,081 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 8,931 @ $1.39 | $12K | +1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 610,842 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 1,794 @ $1.33 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 601,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 11,899 @ $1.37 | $16K | +2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 600,117 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 72,700 @ $1.39 | $101K | +8.0% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 976,121 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 75,000 @ $1.34 | $100K | +5.2% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,519,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Gryaznov Sergei | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $1.34 | $3K | +4.5% of holding | +11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,511 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Purchase | 81,699 @ $1.36 | $111K | ownership Δ n/a | +91.8% | −6.3% | 81,699 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Purchase | 81,699 @ $1.22 | $100K | +7.0% of holding | +91.8% | −6.3% | 1,248,888 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 57,189 @ $1.36 | $78K | ownership Δ n/a | +91.8% | −6.3% | 57,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 57,189 @ $1.22 | $70K | +4.2% of holding | +91.8% | −6.3% | 1,421,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Purchase | 40,849 @ $1.36 | $56K | ownership Δ n/a | +91.8% | −6.3% | 40,849 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Purchase | 40,849 @ $1.22 | $50K | +36.8% of holding | +91.8% | −6.3% | 151,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 4,580 @ $1.20 | $5K | ownership Δ n/a | +35.0% | +0.2% | 4,580 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 4,580 @ $1.20 | $5K | ownership Δ n/a | +35.0% | +0.2% | 4,580 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 4,580 @ $1.19 | $5K | ownership Δ n/a | +35.0% | +0.2% | 4,580 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.14 | $57K | +6.0% of holding | +11.9% | +2.6% | 881,421 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Luput Cristian | director | Purchase | 18,145 @ $1.11 | $20K | +4.3% of holding | +11.9% | +2.6% | 437,628 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 22,000 @ $1.05 | $23K | +2.6% of holding | +35.3% | +10.4% | 853,421 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Luput Cristian | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.08 | $22K | +5.0% of holding | +35.3% | +10.4% | 419,483 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $1.04 | $16K | +1.1% of holding | +35.3% | +10.4% | 1,364,289 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $0.98 | $15K | +1.1% of holding | +59.3% | +30.6% | 1,349,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 10,500 @ $0.97 | $10K | +1.3% of holding | +59.3% | +30.6% | 831,421 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Luput Cristian | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $0.98 | $10K | +2.6% of holding | +59.3% | +30.6% | 399,483 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $0.99 | $10K | +0.8% of holding | +46.1% | +17.0% | 1,334,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $0.99 | $10K | +1.2% of holding | +46.1% | +17.0% | 820,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $0.92 | $2K | +0.2% of holding | +44.5% | +29.2% | 810,921 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 19,230 @ $1.57 | $30K | ownership Δ n/a | −22.8% | −18.5% | 19,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 19,230 @ $1.30 | $25K | +1.5% of holding | −22.8% | −18.5% | 1,324,289 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 33,333 @ $1.71 | $57K | ownership Δ n/a | +0.5% | −47.6% | 33,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 33,333 @ $1.50 | $50K | +2.6% of holding | +0.5% | −47.6% | 1,305,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 66,666 @ $2.05 | $137K | ownership Δ n/a | −14.3% | −63.2% | 66,666 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 66,666 @ $1.50 | $100K | +5.5% of holding | −14.3% | −63.2% | 1,271,726 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.05 | $41K | ownership Δ n/a | −14.3% | −63.2% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.50 | $30K | +3.5% of holding | −14.3% | −63.2% | 588,218 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 33,333 @ $1.85 | $62K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.1% | −22.1% | 33,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 33,333 @ $1.50 | $50K | +6.2% of holding | −8.1% | −22.1% | 568,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.85 | $46K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.1% | −22.1% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.50 | $38K | +2.1% of holding | −8.1% | −22.1% | 1,205,060 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 73,333 @ $1.87 | $137K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.9% | −20.9% | 73,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 73,333 @ $1.50 | $110K | +15.9% of holding | −9.9% | −20.9% | 534,885 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.87 | $94K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.9% | −20.9% | 50,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $1.50 | $75K | +4.4% of holding | −9.9% | −20.9% | 1,180,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 53,418 @ $2.08 | $111K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.7% | −9.5% | 53,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Purchase | 53,418 @ $1.87 | $100K | +11.6% of holding | +2.7% | −9.5% | 514,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.08 | $52K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.7% | −9.5% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-13 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $1.87 | $47K | +2.3% of holding | +2.7% | −9.5% | 1,130,060 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2022-09-19 | Smith Stan | director | Purchase | 2,700 @ $3.69 | $10K | +0.2% of holding | −7.3% | −17.6% | 1,424,178 | Form 4 · filed 1211 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Award / grant | 26,355 | 26,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Award / grant | 32,630 | 32,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Luput Cristian | director | Award / grant | 27,610 | 27,610 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Theagene Jean-Manasse | director | Award / grant | 26,355 | 26,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Smith Stan | director | Award / grant | 32,003 | 32,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 26,982 | 26,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Himmelreich Jeffrey C | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gryaznov Sergei | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Award / grant | 800,000 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Himmelreich Jeffrey C | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Gryaznov Sergei | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Award / grant | 800,000 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 27,907 | 27,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Smith Stan | director | Award / grant | 33,099 | 33,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Luput Cristian | director | Award / grant | 28,556 | 28,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Theagene Jean-Manasse | director | Award / grant | 27,258 | 27,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Award / grant | 33,748 | 33,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Award / grant | 27,258 | 27,258 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 24,633 | 24,633 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Smith Stan | director | Award / grant | 29,216 | 29,216 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Luput Cristian | director | Award / grant | 25,206 | 25,206 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Award / grant | 29,789 | 29,789 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Theagene Jean-Manasse | director | Award / grant | 24,060 | 24,060 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Award / grant | 24,060 | 24,060 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Smith Stan | director | Award / grant | 24,844 | 24,844 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Luput Cristian | director | Award / grant | 21,434 | 21,434 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Theagene Jean-Manasse | director | Award / grant | 20,459 | 20,459 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 20,946 | 20,946 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Award / grant | 20,459 | 20,459 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Award / grant | 25,331 | 25,331 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Luput Cristian | director | Award / grant | 21,350 | 21,350 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Smith Stan | director | Award / grant | 24,747 | 24,747 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Award / grant | 20,380 | 20,380 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Louie Ngar Yee | director | Award / grant | 25,232 | 25,232 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Theagene Jean-Manasse | director | Award / grant | 20,380 | 20,380 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | CHAOUKI STEVEN M | director | Award / grant | 20,865 | 20,865 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Vitoc Vlad | director | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Himmelreich Jeffrey C | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-14 | Gryaznov Sergei | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-04 | Guerrero Ramiro | director | Award / grant | 20,291 | 20,291 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.