MAAMid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $121.90 · now $121.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAA has typically landed between $110.35 and $132.82 — a range of −9.5% to +9.0% from the issuance price $121.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($121.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where MAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $121.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$110.35worst · -9.5%$132.82best · +9.0%
  • now $121.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $121.81 (-0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $116.74–$126.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $110.35–$132.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−42.7%−42.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−40.8%−40.8%+0.1%
2020-02-24−38.9%−42.0%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+50.5%+0.0%+63.4%
2009-03-05+46.9%+0.0%+46.9%
2008-11-19+40.2%−10.7%+45.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$15.6B
market cap
$3.30
EPS (TTM)
40.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$2.2B
'20'25
Net income$447M
'20'25
Free cash flow$718M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.2%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.95
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $121.90$101.22$206.56
  • DCF (intrinsic)$199.29
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$108.48
  • Analyst target · range $132.00–$155.00$142.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$121.90

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.4%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Mar
58%
+2.0%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.2%
n=19
May
58%
+1.2%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.8%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.0%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$141$1182026-05-21: 2 insider purchases, $141K — FISCHER TAMARA D …2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $46K — French James Barton2026-04-06: 4 insider sales, $221K — Carpenter Melanie, Fairbanks Amber, Argo Timothy, Holder Aubrey Clay2026-01-08: 4 insider sales, $62K — Fairbanks Amber, Carpenter Melanie, Holder Aubrey Clay, Argo Timothy2026-01-06: 4 insider sales, $86K — Carpenter Melanie, Fairbanks Amber, Argo Timothy, Holder Aubrey Clay2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $750K — DelPriore Robert J.2025-12-12: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Hill Adrian2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $75K — BOLTON H ERIC JR2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $75K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $100K2026-01: 9 open-market sales, $898K2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $221K2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $141K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $46K↑ buys↓ salesdirector FISCHER TAMARA D — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed same daydirector FISCHER TAMARA D — Purchase on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer French James Barton — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same dayofficer Carpenter Melanie — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed same dayofficer Fairbanks Amber — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed same dayofficer Argo Timothy — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed same dayofficer Holder Aubrey Clay — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed same dayofficer Fairbanks Amber — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed same dayofficer Carpenter Melanie — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed same dayofficer Holder Aubrey Clay — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed same dayofficer Argo Timothy — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed same dayofficer Carpenter Melanie — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer Fairbanks Amber — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer Argo Timothy — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer Holder Aubrey Clay — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed same dayofficer DelPriore Robert J. — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hill Adrian — Purchase on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector BOLTON H ERIC JR — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-21FISCHER TAMARA DdirectorPurchase600 @ $129.00$77K+120.0% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open1,100Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-21FISCHER TAMARA DdirectorPurchase500 @ $128.00$64Kownership Δ n/a+4.0%not yet — horizon still open500Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08French James BartonofficerSale350 @ $130.98$46K−4.1% of holding+7.5%not yet — horizon still open8,158Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06Carpenter MelanieofficerSale731 @ $124.78$91K−3.3% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open21,243Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06Fairbanks AmberofficerSale711 @ $124.73$89K−13.7% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open4,471Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06Argo TimothyofficerSale183 @ $124.73$23K−0.8% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open21,382Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06Holder Aubrey ClayofficerSale145 @ $124.73$18K−1.0% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open13,679Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08Fairbanks AmberofficerSale185 @ $134.98$25K−5.0% of holding−3.1%−8.8%3,519Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08Carpenter MelanieofficerSale145 @ $134.98$20K−0.7% of holding−3.1%−8.8%20,830Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08Holder Aubrey ClayofficerSale73 @ $134.98$10K−0.7% of holding−3.1%−8.8%10,418Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08Argo TimothyofficerSale53 @ $134.98$7K−0.3% of holding−3.1%−8.8%19,118Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Carpenter MelanieofficerSale290 @ $136.50$40K−1.4% of holding−2.3%−8.5%21,037Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Fairbanks AmberofficerSale233 @ $136.50$32K−5.8% of holding−2.3%−8.5%3,799Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Argo TimothyofficerSale58 @ $136.50$8K−0.3% of holding−2.3%−8.5%19,284Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-06Holder Aubrey ClayofficerSale51 @ $136.50$7K−0.5% of holding−2.3%−8.5%10,647Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-02DelPriore Robert J.officerSale5,426 @ $138.23$750K−9.8% of holding−4.8%−5.7%49,745Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12Hill AdriandirectorPurchase758 @ $131.83$100K+1.6% of holding+1.6%−4.9%48,766Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-31BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorPurchase578 @ $129.36$75K+0.2% of holding+5.6%−2.8%320,391Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-02Fairbanks AmberofficerSale173 @ $166.85$29K−5.4% of holding−14.3%−42.9%3,012Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-08Fairbanks AmberofficerSale200 @ $150.26$30K−5.9% of holding−5.0%−44.0%3,185Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-07BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorSale2,643 @ $149.93$396K−0.8% of holding−0.8%−41.2%319,813Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-07Carpenter MelanieofficerSale315 @ $149.93$47K−1.5% of holding−0.8%−41.2%20,742Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-07Argo TimothyofficerSale45 @ $143.93$6K−0.3% of holding−0.8%−41.2%17,621Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-07Holder Aubrey ClayofficerSale19 @ $149.93$3K−0.2% of holding−0.8%−41.2%8,520Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorSale4,358 @ $166.24$724K−1.3% of holding−3.0%−40.2%324,171Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03DelPriore Robert J.officerSale1,150 @ $166.24$191K−2.0% of holding−3.0%−40.2%55,752Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03Carpenter MelanieofficerSale472 @ $166.24$78K−2.2% of holding−3.0%−40.2%21,159Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03Argo TimothyofficerSale94 @ $166.24$16K−0.5% of holding−3.0%−40.2%17,740Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-03Holder Aubrey ClayofficerSale28 @ $166.24$5K−0.3% of holding−3.0%−40.2%8,564Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-19STOCKERT DAVID PdirectorAward / grant1,40118,517Form 4
2026-05-19Case JohndirectorAward / grant1,4015,725Form 4
2026-05-19FISCHER TAMARA DdirectorAward / grant1,4015,174Form 4
2026-05-19KELLY GREEN EDITHdirectorAward / grant1,4019,947Form 4
2026-05-19McGrath Sheila K.directorAward / grant1,4013,425Form 4
2026-05-19KELLY GREEN EDITHdirectorAward / grant20710,154Form 4
2026-05-19Caplan Deborah HdirectorAward / grant1131,433Form 4
2026-05-19Case JohndirectorAward / grant505,775Form 4
2026-05-19GRAF ALAN B JRdirectorAward / grant1,40114,961Form 4
2026-05-19Caplan Deborah HdirectorAward / grant1,4015,371Form 4
2026-04-01BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorWithheld for tax5,705328,468Form 4
2026-04-01DelPriore Robert J.officerWithheld for tax1,63254,352Form 4
2026-04-01Hill AdriandirectorWithheld for tax1,61264,433Form 4
2026-04-01Argo TimothyofficerWithheld for tax29821,565Form 4
2026-04-01Carpenter MelanieofficerWithheld for tax29521,974Form 4
2026-04-01Fairbanks AmberofficerWithheld for tax2845,182Form 4
2026-04-01Fracchia JosephofficerWithheld for tax27213,019Form 4
2026-04-01Holder Aubrey ClayofficerWithheld for tax23713,824Form 4
2026-04-01Fracchia JosephofficerAward / grant1,63213,291Form 4
2026-04-01BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorAward / grant12,231334,173Form 4
2026-04-01Holder Aubrey ClayofficerAward / grant3,64314,061Form 4
2026-04-01Argo TimothyofficerAward / grant2,63721,863Form 4
2026-04-01Carpenter MelanieofficerAward / grant1,43922,269Form 4
2026-04-01Fairbanks AmberofficerAward / grant1,9475,466Form 4
2026-04-01DelPriore Robert J.officerAward / grant5,09355,984Form 4
2026-04-01Hill AdriandirectorAward / grant10,90766,045Form 4
2026-03-17KELLY GREEN EDITHdirectorAward / grant2078,446Form 4
2026-03-17Caplan Deborah HdirectorAward / grant1131,304Form 4
2026-03-17Case JohndirectorAward / grant504,273Form 4
2026-01-06BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorWithheld for tax430321,942Form 4
2026-01-06Hill AdriandirectorWithheld for tax38455,138Form 4
2026-01-06DelPriore Robert J.officerWithheld for tax17950,891Form 4
2026-01-06Holder Aubrey ClayofficerWithheld for tax15610,491Form 4
2026-01-06Argo TimothyofficerWithheld for tax11319,171Form 4
2026-01-06Fairbanks AmberofficerWithheld for tax953,704Form 4
2026-01-06Fracchia JosephofficerWithheld for tax7010,870Form 4
2026-01-06Carpenter MelanieofficerWithheld for tax6220,975Form 4
2026-01-06Hill AdriandirectorAward / grant7,16555,522Form 4
2026-01-06BOLTON H ERIC JRdirectorAward / grant3,256322,372Form 4
2026-01-06Carpenter MelanieofficerAward / grant70921,327Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-12$15–50K
Zoe LofgrenHousesale2023-06-062023-05-25$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousesale2022-04-252022-04-05$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousesale2022-04-252022-04-05$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousesale2022-04-252022-03-31$1–15K
Steve CohenHousesale2020-05-222020-04-17$1–15K
Zoe LofgrenHousesale2020-04-112020-03-23$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatesale2018-01-172017-11-29$15–50K
Zoe LofgrenHousepurchase2017-07-182017-06-15$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2016-11-082016-10-13$15–50K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2016-10-072016-09-26$15–50K
Steve CohenHousepurchase2016-08-242016-08-16$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.