Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.81 · now $21.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, M has typically landed between $17.75 and $26.65 — a range of −18.6% to +22.2% from the issuance price $21.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where M has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.83 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.12–$23.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.75–$26.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −69.1% | −69.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-03 | −63.5% | −63.5% | +0.1% |
| 2020-03-04 | −63.4% | −63.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-19 | +90.1% | +0.0% | +90.1% |
| 2020-05-07 | +88.1% | −1.7% | +88.1% |
| 2023-11-09 | +87.4% | −3.1% | +87.4% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−1.2%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Mar
58%
−2.5%
n=19
Apr
47%
+3.8%
n=19
May
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
58%
−0.5%
n=19
Jul
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Aug
47%
−2.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
+1.2%
n=19
Oct
50%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+8.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+3.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 10,077 @ $25.63 | $258K | −28.4% of holding | −12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Edwards Thomas Jr. | officer | Sale | 16,419 @ $24.89 | $409K | −45.1% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 50,044 @ $17.92 | $897K | −9.3% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 485,791 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 10,010 @ $17.92 | $179K | −8.5% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Bron Olivier | officer | Sale | 7,228 @ $17.92 | $130K | −25.1% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Preston Tracy M | officer | Sale | 5,271 @ $17.92 | $94K | −15.5% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 745 @ $17.92 | $13K | −2.1% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 14,606 @ $18.08 | $264K | −3.2% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 437,238 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 6,573 @ $18.08 | $119K | −6.3% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 490 @ $18.08 | $9K | −1.4% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 27,451 @ $17.73 | $487K | −6.1% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 423,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 5,161 @ $17.73 | $92K | −5.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,008 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Bron Olivier | officer | Sale | 3,051 @ $17.74 | $54K | −16.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,672 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Preston Tracy M | officer | Sale | 2,736 @ $17.74 | $49K | −11.6% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 433 @ $17.74 | $8K | −1.3% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 41,450 @ $17.91 | $742K | −9.4% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 397,555 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 15,415 @ $17.91 | $276K | −15.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,913 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Bron Olivier | officer | Sale | 4,712 @ $17.91 | $84K | −29.6% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,219 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 2,919 @ $17.92 | $52K | −8.5% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,273 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 3,047 @ $18.72 | $57K | −5.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 3,024 @ $18.72 | $57K | −0.9% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 379 @ $18.75 | $7K | −1.5% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 85,000 @ $23.92 | $2.0M | −62.4% of holding | −8.6% | −4.5% | 51,161 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Bron Olivier | officer | Sale | 13,500 @ $22.21 | $300K | −71.8% of holding | +6.9% | −0.0% | 5,302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $17.75 | $1.8M | −42.3% of holding | +2.7% | +5.0% | 136,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $17.50 | $875K | −17.5% of holding | −4.0% | −0.7% | 236,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 12,843 @ $17.26 | $222K | −35.5% of holding | −4.0% | −0.7% | 23,379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $17.30 | $1.7M | −25.9% of holding | +2.7% | +0.2% | 286,161 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Mitchell Adrian V | director | Sale | 101,633 @ $12.88 | $1.3M | −30.1% of holding | −9.0% | +23.4% | 236,201 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 14,234 @ $12.88 | $183K | −4.1% of holding | −9.0% | +23.4% | 335,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 4,522 @ $12.88 | $58K | −1.2% of holding | −9.0% | +23.4% | 386,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 489 @ $12.89 | $6K | −1.3% of holding | −9.0% | +23.4% | 36,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 20,868 @ $12.68 | $265K | −6.1% of holding | −8.3% | +26.7% | 321,244 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Mitchell Adrian V | director | Sale | 8,403 @ $12.68 | $107K | −5.6% of holding | −8.3% | +26.7% | 142,723 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 4,099 @ $12.68 | $52K | −1.1% of holding | −8.3% | +26.7% | 377,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Bron Olivier | officer | Sale | 3,113 @ $12.68 | $39K | −33.3% of holding | −8.3% | +26.7% | 6,246 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Preston Tracy M | officer | Sale | 2,780 @ $12.68 | $35K | −37.1% of holding | −8.3% | +26.7% | 4,723 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 444 @ $12.67 | $6K | −1.3% of holding | −8.3% | +26.7% | 34,996 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-28 | Mitchell Adrian V | director | Sale | 5,122 @ $12.77 | $65K | −3.8% of holding | −10.5% | +25.6% | 130,491 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 4,582 @ $12.77 | $59K | −1.2% of holding | −10.5% | +25.6% | 370,663 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 4,582 @ $12.77 | $59K | −1.6% of holding | −10.5% | +25.6% | 288,961 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 942 @ $12.77 | $12K | −2.7% of holding | −10.5% | +25.6% | 33,940 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 5,049 @ $13.28 | $67K | −1.4% of holding | −12.6% | +15.7% | 362,067 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-26 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 4,488 @ $13.28 | $60K | −1.6% of holding | −12.6% | +15.7% | 280,365 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-26 | Mitchell Adrian V | director | Sale | 4,438 @ $13.28 | $59K | −3.5% of holding | −12.6% | +15.7% | 122,493 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-26 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 1,076 @ $13.28 | $14K | −3.3% of holding | −12.6% | +15.7% | 31,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-25 | Mitchell Adrian V | director | Sale | 3,489 @ $13.74 | $48K | −2.9% of holding | −13.8% | +15.9% | 116,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Spring Antony | director | Sale | 3,124 @ $13.74 | $43K | −1.1% of holding | −13.8% | +15.9% | 272,680 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Sale | 3,118 @ $13.74 | $43K | −0.9% of holding | −13.8% | +15.9% | 353,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Griscom Paul | officer | Sale | 400 @ $13.74 | $5K | −1.3% of holding | −13.8% | +15.9% | 29,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
162 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 1,322 | 1,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Edwards Thomas Jr. | officer | Option exercise | 36,419 | 109,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Edwards Thomas Jr. | officer | Option exercise | 36,419 | 36,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Edwards Thomas Jr. | officer | Option exercise | 36,419 | 36,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Connelly Deirdre P | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Granoff Jill | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | VARGA PAUL C | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Arel Emilie | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Boone Torrence | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | CHOPRA NAVEEN K. | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Chandoha Marie A | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Chavez Robert B. | director | Award / grant | 8,348 | 8,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Bron Olivier | officer | Option exercise | 13,146 | 39,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Option exercise | 19,719 | 59,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Spring Antony | director | Option exercise | 98,597 | 295,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Griscom Paul | officer | Option exercise | 2,629 | 7,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Preston Tracy M | officer | Option exercise | 13,146 | 39,439 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Spring Antony | director | Option exercise | 98,597 | 535,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Griscom Paul | officer | Option exercise | 2,629 | 36,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Bron Olivier | officer | Option exercise | 13,146 | 28,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Preston Tracy M | officer | Option exercise | 13,146 | 34,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Bron Olivier | officer | Option exercise | 13,146 | 28,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Griscom Paul | officer | Option exercise | 2,629 | 36,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Preston Tracy M | officer | Option exercise | 13,146 | 34,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Spring Antony | director | Option exercise | 98,597 | 535,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Option exercise | 19,719 | 118,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Option exercise | 19,719 | 118,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | MARKEE RICHARD L | director | Award / grant | 1,366 | 1,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Sesler Douglas William | director | Award / grant | 1,366 | 1,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Clark Richard | director | Award / grant | 1,366 | 1,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Griscom Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,715 | 1,716 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Option exercise | 12,864 | 12,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Spring Antony | director | Option exercise | 28,588 | 28,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Griscom Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,715 | 34,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Option exercise | 12,864 | 104,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Spring Antony | director | Option exercise | 28,588 | 451,844 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Griscom Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,715 | 34,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Kirgan Danielle L. | officer | Option exercise | 12,864 | 104,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Spring Antony | director | Option exercise | 28,588 | 451,844 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-05-08 | 2023-04-10 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | sale | 2020-05-08 | 2020-04-14 | $15–50K |
| Dean Phillips | House | purchase | 2020-05-07 | 2020-04-02 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | purchase | 2020-04-05 | 2020-03-20 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | purchase | 2020-04-05 | 2020-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Dean Phillips | House | sale | 2020-03-12 | 2020-02-28 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2020-03-10 | 2020-02-07 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2020-01-10 | 2019-12-06 | $1–15K |
| Dean Phillips | House | purchase | 2019-12-11 | 2019-11-22 | $1–15K |
| Dean Phillips | House | sale | 2019-09-16 | 2019-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-09-11 | 2019-08-12 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | purchase | 2019-09-03 | 2019-08-08 | $1–15K |
| David Perdue | Senate | purchase | 2019-09-03 | 2019-08-15 | $1–15K |
| Dean Phillips | House | purchase | 2019-07-11 | 2019-06-20 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.