LZ · TickerCove

LZLegalZoom.com, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.06 · now $6.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LZ has typically landed between $4.44 and $7.59 — a range of −26.8% to +25.2% from the issuance price $6.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,288 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.06 · 11% of range

$5.43 low$11.1 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.9%

typical move · IQR 18.5%

−26.8%worst (p90)+25.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where LZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.06 (+0.0%)
typical $5.95 (-1.9%)
middle 50% $5.38–$6.51
90% range $4.44–$7.59

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,288 windows spanning 2021-06-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2021-09-09	−36.7%	−36.7%	+3.0%
2021-10-29	−35.8%	−35.8%	+0.0%
2021-11-04	−35.7%	−35.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2023-05-05	+60.7%	+0.0%	+60.7%
2023-05-04	+57.8%	+0.0%	+57.8%
2023-05-08	+55.9%	+0.0%	+57.5%

1,288 overlapping windows · 2021-06-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

+1.8%

n=5

Feb

40%

+1.4%

n=5

Mar

40%

−4.3%

n=5

Apr

40%

−2.0%

n=5

May

40%

+1.3%

n=5

Jun

20%

−3.5%

n=5

Jul

50%

+4.7%

n=6

Aug

33%

−5.1%

n=6

Sep

−9.8%

n=6

Oct

60%

+2.9%

n=5

Nov

40%

−4.1%

n=5

Dec

20%

−4.8%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	83,629 @ $5.83	$488K	−5.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,407,801	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-20	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	416,371 @ $5.91	$2.5M	−21.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,491,430	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18	Miller Nicole	officer	Sale	33,479 @ $5.51	$184K	−3.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	943,453	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17	Miller Nicole	officer	Sale	43,996 @ $5.51	$242K	−4.3% of holding	+13.8%	not yet — horizon still open	976,932	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-19	Miller Nicole	officer	Sale	19,199 @ $6.58	$126K	−1.7% of holding	−15.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,119,222	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-18	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	15,000 @ $6.45	$97K	−0.7% of holding	−15.7%	not yet — horizon still open	2,041,847	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Purchase	125,000 @ $6.15	$769K	+4.4% of holding	−1.9%	not yet — horizon still open	2,955,609	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26	Miller Nicole	officer	Sale	23,325 @ $6.63	$155K	−2.8% of holding	−14.1%	−26.2%	813,033	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	15,000 @ $6.96	$104K	−1.0% of holding	−7.8%	−28.6%	1,480,860	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18	Miller Nicole	officer	Sale	23,506 @ $9.63	$226K	−2.6% of holding	+5.9%	−44.6%	868,627	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	15,000 @ $9.56	$143K	−1.0% of holding	+5.9%	−44.6%	1,551,582	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	27,319 @ $11.07	$303K	−1.6% of holding	−7.1%	−49.0%	1,676,426	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	18,136 @ $11.03	$200K	−1.1% of holding	−5.4%	−48.9%	1,703,745	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19	Miller Nicole	officer	Sale	25,154 @ $10.82	$272K	−2.6% of holding	−0.1%	−41.9%	960,032	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Sale	15,000 @ $10.81	$162K	−0.9% of holding	−4.2%	−43.1%	1,721,881	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	Murphy John Francis	director	Sale	24,250 @ $10.57	$256K	−25.7% of holding	−1.9%	−40.6%	69,953	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-15	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Withheld for tax	110,321	2,736,967	Form 4
2026-08-15	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	82,501	1,907,801	Form 4
2026-08-15	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	46,749	1,020,928	Form 4
2026-08-15	Thomas Charles C.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,777	148,303	Form 4
2026-07-09	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	51,545	1,990,302	Form 4
2026-07-09	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	51,545	1,067,677	Form 4
2026-06-03	Gooden Nathan	director	Award / grant	35,585	112,736	Form 4
2026-06-03	Whiteley Sivan	director	Award / grant	35,585	131,965	Form 4
2026-06-03	Murphy John Francis	director	Award / grant	35,585	113,835	Form 4
2026-06-03	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	35,585	125,665	Form 4
2026-05-15	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Withheld for tax	110,321	2,847,288	Form 4
2026-05-15	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	82,501	2,056,847	Form 4
2026-05-15	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	46,749	1,138,421	Form 4
2026-05-15	Thomas Charles C.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,777	152,080	Form 4
2026-03-07	Miller Nicole	officer	Award / grant	372,137	1,185,170	Form 4
2026-03-07	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Award / grant	622,900	2,830,609	Form 4
2026-03-07	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Award / grant	656,488	2,137,348	Form 4
2026-03-07	Thomas Charles C.	officer	Award / grant	39,694	155,857	Form 4
2026-02-15	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Withheld for tax	78,357	2,207,709	Form 4
2026-02-15	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	55,722	1,495,860	Form 4
2026-02-15	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	32,269	836,358	Form 4
2026-02-15	Thomas Charles C.	officer	Withheld for tax	12,549	116,163	Form 4
2026-01-15	Murphy John Francis	director	Award / grant	8,297	78,250	Form 4
2026-01-15	Gooden Nathan	director	Award / grant	6,667	77,151	Form 4
2025-11-15	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Withheld for tax	656,196	2,286,066	Form 4
2025-11-15	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	318,901	1,566,582	Form 4
2025-11-15	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	203,571	892,133	Form 4
2025-09-17	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Award / grant	208,031	1,884,457	Form 4
2025-09-17	Miller Nicole	officer	Option exercise	135,672	746,197	Form 4
2025-09-17	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Option exercise	455,861	2,507,234	Form 4
2025-09-17	Miller Nicole	officer	Option exercise	135,672	1,095,704	Form 4
2025-09-17	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Option exercise	208,031	1,144,172	Form 4
2025-09-17	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Option exercise	455,861	2,942,262	Form 4
2025-08-15	Stibel Jeffrey M	director	Withheld for tax	77,479	2,486,401	Form 4
2025-08-15	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	56,216	1,736,881	Form 4
2025-08-15	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	33,035	985,186	Form 4
2025-07-09	Miller Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	48,516	1,018,221	Form 4
2025-07-09	Watson Noel Bertram	director	Withheld for tax	48,516	1,793,097	Form 4
2025-06-03	Gooden Nathan	director	Award / grant	22,831	70,484	Form 4
2025-06-03	Hamren Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	22,831	90,080	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i