LYVLive Nation Entertainment, Inc.Communication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $171.13 · now $171.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LYV has typically landed between $146.34 and $196.96 — a range of −14.5% to +15.1% from the issuance price $171.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($171.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LYV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $171.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$146.34worst · -14.5%$196.96best · +15.1%
  • now $171.13 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $174.46 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $163.77–$185.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $146.34–$196.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-23−67.1%−67.1%+21.0%
2008-10-31−66.1%−72.8%+0.0%
2008-10-22−65.8%−65.8%+11.4%
3 best
2009-04-06+90.7%−4.5%+90.7%
2009-04-08+88.0%+0.0%+99.6%
2009-04-07+86.2%+0.0%+99.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$41.2B
market cap
$-1.76
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$25.2B
'20'25
Net income$496M
'20'25
Free cash flow$334M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr183.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr45.91
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $171.13$167.06$226.07
  • DCF (intrinsic)$210.69
  • Analyst target · range $186.00–$222.00$201.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$171.13

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+3.6%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
42%
−1.6%
n=19
Apr
47%
+2.2%
n=19
May
84%
+7.4%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Jul
53%
+2.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
+2.9%
n=19
Sep
58%
+2.2%
n=19
Oct
61%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
56%
−0.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
+3.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$188$1262026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $534K — Capo Brian2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $370K — HINSON JEFFREY T.2026-05-08: 4 insider sales, $10.5M — Rowles Michael …2026-05-07: 6 insider sales, $15.5M — Hopmans John …2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $157K — HINSON JEFFREY T.2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $157K2026-05: 10 open-market sales, $25.9M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $370K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $534K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Capo Brian — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HINSON JEFFREY T. — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rowles Michael — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same dayofficer Rowles Michael — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same dayofficer Rowles Michael — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same dayofficer Rowles Michael — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same dayofficer Hopmans John — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hopmans John — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hopmans John — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hopmans John — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hopmans John — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hopmans John — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HINSON JEFFREY T. — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Capo BrianofficerSale2,900 @ $184.00$534K−25.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,655Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15HINSON JEFFREY T.directorSale2,115 @ $175.00$370K−4.3% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open47,122Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Rowles MichaelofficerSale37,658 @ $163.07$6.1M−14.0% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open230,834Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08Rowles MichaelofficerSale16,757 @ $165.98$2.8M−7.4% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open210,429Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08Rowles MichaelofficerSale5,713 @ $166.36$950K−2.7% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open204,716Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-08Rowles MichaelofficerSale3,648 @ $164.96$602K−1.6% of holding−0.3%not yet — horizon still open227,186Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerSale46,991 @ $166.60$7.8M−19.5% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open193,504Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerSale18,940 @ $164.37$3.1M−7.0% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open253,291Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerSale12,796 @ $165.81$2.1M−5.1% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open240,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerSale5,978 @ $166.78$997K−3.1% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open188,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerSale4,753 @ $167.41$796K−2.5% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open188,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerSale3,620 @ $166.19$602K−1.8% of holding−4.8%not yet — horizon still open194,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10HINSON JEFFREY T.directorSale944 @ $165.87$157K−1.9% of holding−1.8%−10.5%48,030Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16Hopmans JohnofficerSale34,808 @ $147.38$5.1M−15.5% of holding−2.0%−21.7%189,456Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-12KAHAN JAMES SdirectorSale3,410 @ $139.52$476K−100.0% of holding−1.2%−15.8%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09HINSON JEFFREY T.directorSale3,977 @ $135.66$540K−7.6% of holding−1.6%−16.7%48,522Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-12HINSON JEFFREY T.directorSale500 @ $122.95$61K−0.9% of holding+11.0%+23.2%52,624Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Capo BrianofficerSale5,066 @ $123.24$624K−32.4% of holding+9.3%+22.5%10,549Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-25Rowles MichaelofficerSale21,970 @ $147.62$3.2M−10.1% of holding−8.2%+6.1%195,346Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Rowles MichaelofficerSale3,478 @ $145.61$506K−1.6% of holding−8.2%+6.1%220,696Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Rowles MichaelofficerSale3,380 @ $146.25$494K−1.5% of holding−8.2%+6.1%217,316Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Rowles MichaelofficerSale63,136 @ $155.40$9.8M−24.4% of holding−14.5%−1.0%195,346Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

162 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Rapino MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax16,2514,188,167Form 4
2026-08-06Berchtold JoeofficerWithheld for tax10,834901,617Form 4
2026-08-06Hopmans JohnofficerWithheld for tax3,970174,432Form 4
2026-08-06Rowles MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,084200,806Form 4
2026-07-11Hopmans JohnofficerWithheld for tax6,083178,402Form 4
2026-06-11Fu PingdirectorAward / grant1,20717,737Form 4
2026-06-11Grenell Richard AllendirectorAward / grant1,2072,711Form 4
2026-06-11HINSON JEFFREY T.directorAward / grant1,20749,237Form 4
2026-06-11Hollingsworth ChaddirectorAward / grant1,20714,990Form 4
2026-06-11Iovine JimmydirectorAward / grant1,20739,960Form 4
2026-06-11KAHAN JAMES SdirectorAward / grant1,2072,609Form 4
2026-06-11VOGEL CARL EdirectorAward / grant1,2072,609Form 4
2026-06-11MAYS RANDALL THOMASdirectorAward / grant2,293114,178Form 4
2026-06-11Paul Richard A.directorAward / grant1,2077,537Form 4
2026-06-11Watkins LatriecedirectorAward / grant1,20710,009Form 4
2026-06-11Carter MaverickdirectorAward / grant1,20720,622Form 4
2026-05-22Berchtold JoeofficerWithheld for tax16,603912,451Form 4
2026-05-22Rowles MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,661201,890Form 4
2026-05-13Rapino MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax17,4644,204,418Form 4
2026-05-13Berchtold JoeofficerWithheld for tax11,643929,054Form 4
2026-05-13Hopmans JohnofficerWithheld for tax4,266184,485Form 4
2026-05-13Rowles MichaelofficerWithheld for tax1,165203,551Form 4
2026-05-08Rowles MichaelofficerOption exercise63,776268,492Form 4
2026-05-08Rowles MichaelofficerOption exercise63,7760Form 4
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerOption exercise83,480272,231Form 4
2026-05-07Hopmans JohnofficerOption exercise83,4800Form 4
2026-04-09Rapino MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax24,9044,221,882Form 4
2026-03-31Capo BrianofficerWithheld for tax64711,555Form 4
2026-03-31Capo BrianofficerWithheld for tax47412,202Form 4
2026-03-20Liberty Live Holdings, Inc.directorDisposition——Form 4
2026-03-20Liberty Live Holdings, Inc.directorAward / grant——Form 4
2026-03-20Liberty Live Holdings, Inc.directorAward / grant——Form 4
2026-03-20Liberty Live Holdings, Inc.directorDisposition——Form 4
2026-03-12Rapino MichaeldirectorWithheld for tax16,6974,246,786Form 4
2026-03-12Rapino MichaeldirectorAward / grant61,8954,263,483Form 4
2026-03-12Capo BrianofficerAward / grant3,04212,676Form 4
2026-03-10HINSON JEFFREY T.directorGift15049,174Form 4
2026-03-10HINSON JEFFREY T.directorGift20049,324Form 4
2026-03-10HINSON JEFFREY T.directorGift20049,524Form 4
2026-03-10HINSON JEFFREY T.directorGift20048,974Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-07-072026-06-01$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-07-072026-06-12$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-07-072026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-01-052025-12-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-03-202025-02-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-30$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-30$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-08-072024-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.