Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.69 · now $15.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LYFT has typically landed between $11.85 and $20.96 — a range of −24.5% to +33.6% from the issuance price $15.69.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,856 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-03-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where LYFT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.69 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.3 (-2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.66–$16.94
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.85–$20.96
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −64.4% | −64.4% | +2.5% |
| 2020-02-13 | −59.3% | −59.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −58.2% | −58.2% | +3.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +81.1% | +0.0% | +91.0% |
| 2020-11-02 | +77.1% | +0.0% | +77.1% |
| 2020-10-28 | +75.6% | +0.0% | +80.4% |
1,856 overlapping windows · 2019-03-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 13,204 @ $16.64 | $220K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 781,152 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Sale | 5,982 @ $17.34 | $104K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 299,974 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Lawee David | director | Sale | 4,613 @ $17.33 | $80K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,124 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 2,307 @ $17.34 | $40K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 46,238 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Whiteside Janey | director | Sale | 5,480 @ $17.68 | $97K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 60,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Brewer Erin | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $17.63 | $264K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 852,303 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Whiteside Janey | director | Sale | 14,220 @ $17.00 | $242K | −17.7% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,184 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 36,214 @ $16.14 | $584K | −4.2% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 817,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Brewer Erin | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.59 | $204K | −2.1% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 705,979 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 11,491 @ $15.00 | $172K | −1.3% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 853,731 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Sale | 5,460 @ $13.76 | $75K | −1.6% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 335,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 2,093 @ $13.76 | $29K | −6.5% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,092 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 11,491 @ $13.69 | $157K | −1.3% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 865,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 23,661 @ $15.00 | $355K | −2.5% of holding | −14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 916,022 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Sale | 5,284 @ $13.83 | $73K | −1.7% of holding | −1.0% | +15.1% | 300,570 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 2,093 @ $13.89 | $29K | −6.1% of holding | −1.0% | +15.1% | 32,185 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 23,661 @ $13.30 | $315K | −3.3% of holding | +3.7% | +18.7% | 696,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Risher John David | director | Purchase | 7,490 @ $13.38 | $100K | +0.1% of holding | +7.4% | +15.8% | 11,481,792 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Risher John David | director | Purchase | 5,030 @ $19.80 | $100K | +0.0% of holding | −4.5% | −41.9% | 11,802,296 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Aggarwal Prashant | director | Sale | 96,900 @ $22.30 | $2.2M | −10.0% of holding | −13.2% | −46.4% | 874,369 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Aggarwal Prashant | director | Sale | 77,699 @ $22.30 | $1.7M | −82.3% of holding | −13.2% | −46.4% | 16,742 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Sale | 4,800 @ $22.30 | $107K | −1.5% of holding | −13.2% | −46.4% | 311,909 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Lawee David | director | Sale | 6,578 @ $22.55 | $148K | −5.9% of holding | −15.1% | −47.3% | 104,460 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 1,466 @ $20.25 | $30K | −4.1% of holding | −9.0% | −44.7% | 34,278 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 14,606 @ $20.00 | $292K | −1.7% of holding | −2.0% | −33.4% | 835,782 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Brewer Erin | officer | Sale | 14,600 @ $17.22 | $251K | −2.7% of holding | +29.4% | −28.5% | 526,159 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Risher John David | director | Purchase | 5,926 @ $16.88 | $100K | +0.1% of holding | +29.4% | −28.5% | 11,797,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Brewer Erin | officer | Sale | 400 @ $18.06 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +29.4% | −28.5% | 525,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 1,465 @ $16.33 | $24K | −3.9% of holding | +32.0% | −21.5% | 35,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 28,356 @ $15.85 | $449K | −3.2% of holding | +26.7% | −27.6% | 850,388 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.24 | $229K | −2.7% of holding | +40.7% | −19.1% | 540,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-29 | Risher John David | director | Purchase | 6,538 @ $15.29 | $100K | +0.1% of holding | −2.3% | +15.5% | 11,791,340 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 1,572 @ $16.41 | $26K | −7.1% of holding | −6.6% | +7.3% | 20,467 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-23 | Zimmer John Patrick | director | Sale | 2,424 @ $15.80 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −8.5% | +8.4% | 879,498 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Sale | 22,736 @ $12.45 | $283K | −2.3% of holding | +16.4% | +36.1% | 959,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Green Logan | director | Sale | 9,811 @ $13.25 | $130K | −3.2% of holding | −6.4% | +12.4% | 299,240 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Green Logan | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $13.88 | $22K | −0.5% of holding | −6.4% | +12.4% | 297,640 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 1,472 @ $13.30 | $20K | −6.2% of holding | −6.4% | +12.4% | 22,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 100 @ $13.98 | $1K | −0.5% of holding | −6.4% | +12.4% | 22,039 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-25 | Zimmer John Patrick | director | Sale | 2,424 @ $12.52 | $30K | −0.3% of holding | +0.3% | +22.6% | 911,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Beggs Jill | director | Sale | 1,572 @ $13.49 | $21K | −6.2% of holding | −2.3% | +22.1% | 23,611 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
94 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 186,735 | 1,018,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 29,507 | 305,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,161 | 794,356 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Gift | 161,324 | 857,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Gift | 161,324 | 867,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | MINICUCCI BENITO | director | Award / grant | 15,454 | 15,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Stephenson Dave | director | Award / grant | 1,053 | 107,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Whiteside Janey | director | Award / grant | 867 | 80,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Whiteside Janey | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 79,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stevenson Betsey | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 68,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Stephenson Dave | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 106,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Lawee David | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 123,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hersman Deborah | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 23,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Beggs Jill | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 48,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Aggarwal Prashant | director | Award / grant | 18,453 | 35,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 64,804 | 1,261,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Withheld for tax | 40,309 | 876,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,436 | 340,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Gift | 55,983 | 1,205,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Gift | 55,983 | 720,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Whiteside Janey | director | Award / grant | 928 | 61,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Stephenson Dave | director | Award / grant | 1,127 | 87,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Brewer Erin | officer | Award / grant | 124,047 | 1,138,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Award / grant | 146,018 | 939,683 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Award / grant | 19,053 | 319,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Award / grant | 28,736 | 348,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Award / grant | 96,815 | 793,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Brewer Erin | officer | Award / grant | 187,089 | 1,325,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 88,880 | 1,091,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Withheld for tax | 51,677 | 720,511 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Hope Stephen W. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,055 | 305,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Gift | 76,190 | 664,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Gift | 76,190 | 1,014,851 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Hersman Deborah | director | Award / grant | 4,842 | 4,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Whiteside Janey | director | Award / grant | 735 | 60,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Stephenson Dave | director | Award / grant | 893 | 86,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Lawee David | director | Award / grant | 824 | 105,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Risher John David | director | Withheld for tax | 327,994 | 11,474,302 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Llewellyn Lindsay Catherine | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,888 | 772,188 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-20 | Brewer Erin | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,540 | 1,191,665 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.